Gro Launches Model to Predict China Wheat Production and Deduce Import Needs

10 May 2021

Global grain supplies are at their tightest levels in years, largely on growing demand from China. In that context, Gro is announcing the launch of its China Wheat Yield Forecast Model, which enables users to predict to what extent China will meet its wheat demand with domestic production, and deduce how much of the key grain will need to be imported. 

China is the world’s largest producer of wheat, nearly all of which is used domestically. Still, China’s wheat production impacts food companies, supply chains, and balance sheets far beyond its borders, as any shortfall or surplus in the Chinese crop directly affects import quantities from other parts of the world. 

Gro’s China Wheat Yield Forecast Model, available to Gro’s Premium subscribers, allows users to track the crop’s progress throughout the growing season. A key step in creating the China Wheat Yield Forecast Model was developing a wheat crop mask for China that enables us to determine wheat acreage. 

Like all of Gro’s machine-learning-based yield forecast models, the new China model updates daily with yield projections at the provincial and national levels. It employs two separate models to track one public and one private data source. The model has begun generating yield forecasts for this year’s winter wheat, China’s dominant wheat crop, which is emerging from its dormant stage.  

The China wheat model complements Gro’s other forecast models for the country, including Gro’s China Corn Yield Forecast Model and China Pork Demand Forecast Model

China’s growing meat consumption has increased demand for wheat and other grains as animal feed. And while wheat production has grown steadily since the early 2000s, China must still import from the US, France, and other countries. For 2020/21, the USDA estimates China will import 10.5 million tonnes of wheat, the largest amount in 25 years and double what it imported a year earlier. 

 

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