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Gro Webinar: Fall Armyworms in China Pose New Risk to Global Corn Supply

05 August 2019

Gro Intelligence will be hosting webinars to present the findings of its Fall Armyworm Risk Model on Tuesday, August 13, and Wednesday, August 14. The webinars will provide a comprehensive review of Gro’s methodology and the underlying data sources used. Interested parties can register to attend using the following links:

Register Now

August 13th at 3pm EST (GMT-4)

August 13th at 9pm EST (GMT-4)

Gro developed its risk model to help users analyze the potential impact of fall armyworms in China, the second-largest corn producer after the US. Armyworms are an invasive and potentially devastating species that has been found in 20 provinces across China this year. Any harm to the Chinese crop could further strain global corn markets in a year when supply is already limited by millions of US farmland acres out of production. Further, the pest forces farmers to make important input and seed decisions this season and moving forward.

Gro’s risk model identifies the location of Chinese cropland that is susceptible to damage at the county level. The model incorporates a number of sources in Gro’s data platform, including remotely sensed climate data and Gro’s recently developed corn crop mask for China, as well as external data sources covering observed pest damage and known armyworm behavior. Risk measures are updated daily.

For China’s largest corn producing regions—the North China Plain and Northeast China—armyworms are predicted to appear at varying times over the next several months as shown in the map below. Based on the latest output of our model, Gro believes there is almost twice as much area at risk for the Chinese summer corn crop as there is for the earlier spring corn.

As with all our forecast models, Gro’s Fall Armyworm Risk Model is available exclusively via the Gro API.

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Estimated and predicted armyworm initial appearance: North China Plain (left) and Northeast China

13 April 2020


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