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In more bearish news for global corn farmers, Argentina looks to be sowing a record crop for harvest in spring of 2018. Planting began recently, and growers have expressed intentions to increase their corn area by 5-10% to near 5.3 million hectares. Coupled with ample moisture seen in satellite evapotranspiration data, this sharply boosted area should result in an Argentine crop of 46 million tonnes, up from 40 million tonnes last year. President Macri encouraged agricultural activity by eliminating export taxes before the spring 2016 harvest. We recommend that corn buyers and sellers use Gro analytics to keep a close eye on weather conditions and yield potential as the season develops.

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After getting off to a good start, the blooming season for Brazilian arabica coffee has taken a turn into dryness. Damage is unlikely at this early stage, but traders have expressed concern that this could become a yield-reducing drought. New York-traded futures for delivery in December have retreated from a monthly high reached on Monday, Sept. 18, but continued dry weather could spur further rallies. Watch the Gro platform for ongoing analysis of evapotranspiration in critical growing regions as Brazil’s coffee blooming season progresses.

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Last week, the Chinese government announced the expansion of their ethanol program by requiring the use of E10 (a gasoline blend with 10% ethanol) in all vehicles nationwide by 2020. The move comes as the government struggles to simultaneously deal with the problem of excess corn reserves and growing environmental issues. We encourage you to explore the data used in this post within our interactive displays.

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Sao Paulo’s favorable climate, concentration of infrastructure, and proximity to the ocean has made the Brazilian state the historic center of the world’s largest beef and veal export industry. Yet surging global meat demand has caused a rush for new pastureland, and the Amazon has borne the brunt of the boom. Brazilian states such as Maranhao, Mato Grosso, and Tocantins—all of which legally fall within the Amazon—have consistently been exporting more beef and veal than Sao Paulo since 2015, a troubling sign for the future of the rainforest.

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COMMODITIES

USDA Report and Yield Model Summary:

USDA issued its September WASDE report last Tuesday, and the market’s immediate reaction was to sell off steeply. Estimated yield for corn rose from 169.5 bushels/acre to 169.9 bushels/acre. The trade consensus as reported by Reuters was for a decline to 168.2, so the report wrong-footed the crowd. In soybean markets, a similar process played out, with traders expecting a decline from 49.2 bu/ac to 48.8, but getting smacked instead with an increase to 49.9. The corn and bean pits fed off each others’ bearishness, leading to some fairly steep declines on the day. It’s worth noting that the Gro US Corn Yield Model has remained bearish for several weeks relative to the USDA and may have helped some to avoid or profit from Tuesday’s washout. We advise traders to keep at least one eye on Gro’s yield model.

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Brazilian cotton has long lived in the long shadows of the country’s other agricultural commodities. Before Brazil’s recent political and economic turmoil, the country became the fourth largest producer of cotton lint in 2015 on surging domestic demand. Although wavering domestic demand has suppressed growth in recent years, resurgent global prices have coincided with Brazil’s planting season. With a cheap Brazilian real making exports attractive abroad, Brazilian farmers are set to plant more cotton in the near future and are already on track to export more cotton than before the economic crisis.

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COMMODITIES

USDA Will Likely Cut Corn & Soybean Yields:

There is a strong chance that US corn and soybean yields will be cut by the USDA on Tuesday. The department has cut corn yields 50% of the time by an average of 2% in the September report over the past 20 years. Recent good-to-excellent ratings for corn and soybean imply a lower yield outcome than the USDA’s August projection. However, Gro’s Yield model, which is driven by frequent scans of environmental and vegetation conditions, has jumped to 170.6 bu/ac in the past week. This is more bearish than the USDA’s current forecast of 169.5 bu/ac and significantly more so than most private forecasts. Traders can now perform scenario analysis of potential outcomes on Tuesday with Gro’s new interactive balance sheet feature.

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Flex-fuel vehicles that can burn 100% ethanol now make up more than 90% of new vehicle sales in Brazil. Therefore, the fleet consumes more ethanol each year. A period of economic prosperity in Brazil led to a proportional increase in vehicle sales. Then, beginning in 2012, sharp declines in business activity were accompanied by declining motor vehicle sales. The resulting lower ethanol demand will add to the troubles of the struggling sugarcane industry.

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TRADE

Canada’s Grain Stocks Are Shrinking:

Canada’s major cereal stocks and oilseed crops are projected to decline for the fourth consecutive year. Strong export demand and production setbacks are eating into domestic supply. Rapeseed oil inventories are expected to end the upcoming marketing year in healthy shape. However, current projections may not fully reflect recent production setbacks. Statistics Canada will provide fresh insight into the country’s stocks on Tuesday.

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Brazil has joined the elite ranks of agricultural countries in the last 50 years. Brazil is the largest producer of both arabica coffee and sugar, the second-largest producer in soybeans and robusta coffee, and the third-largest corn producer. Brazil is also a top beef and chicken producer. These developments happened with agricultural reform in the 1960s via the Green Revolution and again in the mid-1990s as part of the Real Economic Stabilization Plan. However, agricultural success can be limited by environmental concerns, economic turmoil, and corruption. This month, we’re highlighting how agriculture has shaped and will continue to shape Brazil’s future.

Brazilian GDP and Value Added Growth
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Year-to-date (June) US pork exports to China-Hong Kong are down from 2016. However, variety pork meats are bucking the trend—year-to-date exports are up 19% y/y. China’s hog herd is on the decline, but the country’s consumers still love delicacies made from pig snouts, ears, liver, and feet. With fewer hogs around, China is tapping into a growing number of pigs in the US. What’s more, weekly US pork exports to China are starting to tick up after a steep fall. China’s demand for pork should also pick up seasonally in the coming months.

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BIOFUELS

Can US Yellow Grease Prices Go Higher?

US yellow grease production through June was 9% lower than last year. The cooking oil byproduct is widely collected from the deep fryers of hotel and restaurant establishments. Then recyclers use it primarily to produce biodiesel, but also livestock feed, soap, make-up, clothes, rubber, and detergents. Given that US diesel prices are at a two-year high and Argentine biodiesel imports are being hit by US duties, yellow grease prices are turning up. We expect this trend to continue if July production remains below year ago levels. Restaurants and biodiesel producers can follow the monthly update in Gro.

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Gro Intelligence Privacy Policy

This Privacy Policy describes the policies and procedures of Gro Intelligence, Inc. (“we”, “our” or “us”) on the collection, use and disclosure of your information on www.gro-intelligence.com (the “Site”) and the services, features, content or applications we offer (collectively with the Site, the “Services”). We receive information about you from your use of the Services generally. When you use the Services, you are consenting to the collection, transfer, manipulation, storage, disclosure and other uses of your information as described in this Privacy Policy.

What Does This Privacy Policy Cover?

This Privacy Policy covers the treatment of personally identifiable information (“Personal Information”) gathered when you are using or accessing the Services. This Privacy Policy also covers our treatment of any Personal Information that our business partners share with us or that we share with our business partners.

This Privacy Policy does not apply to the practices of third parties that we do not own or control, including but not limited to any third party websites, services and applications (“Third Party Services”) that you elect to access through the Service or to individuals that we do not manage or employ. While we attempt to facilitate access only to those Third Party Services that share our respect for your privacy, we cannot take responsibility for the content or privacy policies of those Third Party Services. We encourage you to carefully review the privacy policies of any Third Party Services you access.

What Information Do We Collect?

The information we gather enables us to personalize, improve and continue to operate the Services. We collect the following types of information from our users.

IP Address Information and Other Information Collected Automatically:

· We automatically receive and record information from your web browser when you interact with the Services, including your IP address and cookie information. This information is used for fighting spam/malware and also to facilitate collection of data concerning your interaction with the Services (e.g., what links you have clicked on).

· Generally, the Services automatically collect usage information, such as the number and frequency of visitors to the Site. We may use this data in aggregate form, that is, as a statistical measure, but not in a manner that would identify you personally. This type of aggregate data enables us and third parties authorized by us to figure out how often individuals use parts of the Services so that we can analyze and improve them.

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· Cookies are pieces of text that may be provided to your computer through your web browser when you access a website. Your browser stores cookies in a manner associated with each website you visit. We use cookies to enable our servers to recognize your web browser and tell us how and when you visit the Site and otherwise use the Services through the Internet.

· Our cookies do not, by themselves, contain Personal Information, and we do not combine the general information collected through cookies with other Personal Information to tell us who you are. As noted, however, we do use cookies to identify that your web browser has accessed aspects of the Services.

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Aggregate Information:

We collect statistical information about how users collectively use the Services (“Aggregate Information”). Some of this information may be derived from Personal Information. This statistical information is not Personal Information and cannot be tied back to you or your web browser.

How, and With Whom, Is My Information Shared?

IP Address Information:

While we collect and store IP address information, that information is not made public. We do at times, however, share this information with our partners, service providers and other persons with whom we conduct business, and as otherwise specified in this Privacy Policy.

Information You Elect to Share:

You may access other Third Party Services through the Services, for example by clicking on links to those Third Party Services from within the Site. We are not responsible for the privacy policies and/or practices of these Third Party Services, and you are responsible for reading and understanding those Third Party Services’ privacy policies. This Privacy Policy only governs information collected on the Services.

Aggregate Information:

We share Aggregate Information with our partners, service providers and other persons with whom we conduct business. We share this type of statistical data so that our partners can understand how and how often people use our Services and their services or websites, which facilitates improving both their services and how our Services interface with them. In addition, these third parties may share with us non-private, aggregated or otherwise non Personal Information about you that they have independently developed or acquired.

Information Shared with Our Agents:

We employ and contract with people and other entities that perform certain tasks on our behalf and who are under our control (our “Agents”). We may need to share Personal Information with our Agents in order to provide products or services to you. Unless we tell you differently, our Agents do not have any right to use Personal Information or other information we share with them beyond what is necessary to assist us. You hereby consent to our sharing of Personal Information with our Agents.

Information Disclosed Pursuant to Business Transfers:

In some cases, we may choose to buy or sell assets. In these types of transactions, user information is typically one of the transferred business assets. Moreover, if we, or substantially all of our assets, were acquired, or if we go out of business or enter bankruptcy, user information would be one of the assets that is transferred or acquired by a third party. You acknowledge that such transfers may occur, and that any acquirer of us or our assets may continue to use your Personal Information as set forth in this policy.

Information Disclosed for Our Protection and the Protection of Others:

We also reserve the right to access, read, preserve, and disclose any information as we reasonably believe is necessary to (i) satisfy any applicable law, regulation, legal process or governmental request, (ii) enforce this Privacy Policy and our Terms of Service, including investigation of potential violations hereof, (iii) detect, prevent, or otherwise address fraud, security or technical issues, (iv) respond to user support requests, or (v) protect our rights, property or safety, our users and the public. This includes exchanging information with other companies and organizations for fraud protection and spam/malware prevention.

Information We Share With Your Consent:

Except as set forth above, you will be notified when your Personal Information may be shared with third parties, and will be able to prevent the sharing of this information.

Is Information About Me Secure?

We store all of our information, including your IP address information, using industry-standard techniques. We do not guarantee or warrant that such techniques will prevent unauthorized access to information about you that we store, Personal Information or otherwise.

What Information of Mine Can I Access?

You can access and delete cookies through your web browser settings.

California Privacy Rights: Under California Civil Code sections 1798.83-1798.84, California residents are entitled to ask us for a notice identifying the categories of personal customer information which we share with our affiliates and/or third parties for marketing purposes, and providing contact information for such affiliates and/or third parties. If you are a California resident and would like a copy of this notice, please submit a written request to the following address: 12 E 49th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10017

What Happens When There Are Changes to this Privacy Policy?

We may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time. Use of information we collect now is subject to the Privacy Policy in effect at the time such information is used. If we make changes in the way we collect or use information, we will notify you by posting an announcement on the Services or sending you an email. A user is bound by any changes to the Privacy Policy when he or she uses the Services after such changes have been first posted.

What If I Have Questions or Concerns?

If you have any questions or concerns regarding privacy using the Services, please send us a detailed message to support@gro-intelligence.com. We will make every effort to resolve your concerns.

Effective Date: March 11, 2014

 

Gro Intelligence Terms of Service

Please read these Terms of Service (collectively with Gro Intelligence’s Privacy Policy, the “Terms of Service”) fully and carefully before using www.gro-intelligence.com (the “Site”) and the services, features, content or applications offered by Gro Intelligence, Inc. (“we”, “us” or “our”) (together with the Site, the “Services”). These Terms of Service set forth the legally binding terms and conditions for your use of the Site and the Services.

1. Acceptance of Terms of Service.

a. By using the Services in any manner, including but not limited to visiting or browsing the Site, you agree to these Terms of Service and all other operating rules, policies and procedures that may be published from time to time on the Site by us, each of which is incorporated by reference and each of which may be updated from time to time without notice to you.

2. Content.

a. Definition. For purposes of these Terms of Service, the term “Content” includes, without limitation, information, data, text, photographs, videos, audio clips, written posts and comments, software, scripts, graphics, and interactive features generated, provided, or otherwise made available on or through the Services.

b. Notices and Restrictions. The Services may contain Content specifically provided by us or our partners and such Content is protected by copyrights, trademarks, service marks, patents, trade secrets or other proprietary rights and laws. You shall abide by and maintain all copyright notices, information, and restrictions contained in any Content accessed through the Services. Unless otherwise indicated, these Terms of Service and all Content provided by us are copyright © 2014 Gro Intelligence, Inc. All rights reserved.

c. Use License. Subject to these Terms of Service, we grant each user of the Services a worldwide, non-exclusive, non-sublicensable and non-transferable license to use (i.e., to download and display locally) Content solely for purposes of using the Services. Use, reproduction, modification, distribution or storage of any Content for other than purposes of using the Services is expressly prohibited without prior written permission from us. You shall not sell, license, rent, or otherwise use or exploit any Content for commercial use or in any way that violates any third party right.

d. Availability of Content. We do not guarantee that any Content will be made available on the Site or through the Services. We reserve the right to, but do not have any obligation to, (i) remove, edit or modify any Content in our sole discretion, at any time, without notice to you and for any reason (including, but not limited to, upon receipt of claims or allegations from third parties or authorities relating to such Content or if we are concerned that you may have violated these Terms of Service), or for no reason at all and (ii) to remove or block any Content from the Services.

3. Rules of Conduct.

a. As a condition of use, you represent, warrant and covenant not to use the Services for any purpose that is prohibited by these Terms of Service or applicable laws, rules and regulations applicable to you. You are responsible for all of your activity in connection with the Services.

b. You shall not (directly or indirectly):

i. take any action that imposes or may impose (as determined by us in our sole discretion) an unreasonable or disproportionately large load on our (or our third party providers’) infrastructure;

ii. interfere or attempt to interfere with the proper working of the Services or any activities conducted on the Services;

iii. bypass, circumvent or attempt to bypass or circumvent any measures we may use to prevent or restrict access to the Services (or other accounts, computer systems or networks connected to the Services);

iv. use manual or automated software, devices, or other processes to “crawl” or “spider” any page of the Site;

v. harvest or scrape any Content from the Services;

vi. otherwise take any action in violation of our guidelines and policies;

vii. decipher, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer or otherwise attempt to derive any source code or underlying ideas or algorithms of any part of the Services (including without limitation any application), except to the limited extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction;

viii. modify, translate, or otherwise create derivative works of any part of the Services; or

ix. copy, rent, lease, distribute, or otherwise transfer any of the rights that you receive hereunder.

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i. satisfy any applicable law, regulation, legal process or governmental request;

ii. enforce these Terms of Service, including investigation of potential violations hereof;

iii. detect, prevent, or otherwise address fraud, security or technical issues;

iv. respond to user support requests; or

v. protect the rights, property or safety of us, our users and the public.

4. Third Party Services. The Services may permit you to link to other websites, services or resources on the Internet, and other websites, services or resources may contain links to the Services. When you access third party resources on the Internet, you do so at your own risk. These other resources are not under our control, and you acknowledge that we are not responsible or liable for the content, functions, accuracy, legality, appropriateness or any other aspect of such websites or resources. The inclusion of any such link does not imply our endorsement or any association between us and their operators. You further acknowledge and agree that we shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any such content, goods or services available on or through any such website or resource.

5. Termination. We may terminate your access to all or any part of the Services at any time, with or without cause, with or without notice, effective immediately. All provisions of these Terms of Service which by their nature should survive termination shall survive termination, including, without limitation, ownership provisions, warranty disclaimers, indemnity and limitations of liability.

6. Warranty Disclaimer.

a. You release us from all liability for you having acquired or not acquired Content through the Services. We make no representations concerning any Content contained in or accessed through the Services, and we will not be responsible or liable for the accuracy, copyright compliance, or legality of material or Content contained in or accessed through the Services.

b. THE SERVICES AND CONTENT ARE PROVIDED “AS IS”, “AS AVAILABLE” AND WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF TITLE, NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND ANY WARRANTIES IMPLIED BY ANY COURSE OF PERFORMANCE OR USAGE OF TRADE, ALL OF WHICH ARE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMED. WE, AND OUR DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, SUPPLIERS, PARTNERS AND CONTENT PROVIDERS DO NOT WARRANT THAT: (I) THE SERVICES WILL BE SECURE OR AVAILABLE AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME OR LOCATION; (II) ANY DEFECTS OR ERRORS WILL BE CORRECTED; (III) ANY CONTENT AVAILABLE AT OR THROUGH THE SERVICES IS FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS; OR (IV) THE RESULTS OF USING THE SERVICES WILL MEET YOUR REQUIREMENTS.

7. Limitation of Liability. IN NO EVENT SHALL WE, NOR OUR DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, PARTNERS, SUPPLIERS OR CONTENT PROVIDERS, BE LIABLE UNDER CONTRACT, TORT, STRICT LIABILITY, NEGLIGENCE OR ANY OTHER LEGAL OR EQUITABLE THEORY WITH RESPECT TO THE SERVICES FOR ANY (I) LOST PROFITS, DATA LOSS, COST OF PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES, OR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, COMPENSATORY OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER, SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES (HOWEVER ARISING), (II) BUGS, VIRUSES, TROJAN HORSES, OR THE LIKE (REGARDLESS OF THE SOURCE OF ORIGINATION), OR (III) DIRECT DAMAGES IN EXCESS OF $50.00.

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9. Miscellaneous.

a. Modification. We reserve the right, in our sole discretion, to modify or replace any of these Terms of Service, or change, suspend, or discontinue the Services at any time. Your continued use of the Services following notification of any changes to these Terms of Service constitutes acceptance of those changes.

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c. Force Majeure. We shall not be liable for any failure to perform our obligations hereunder where such failure results from any cause beyond our reasonable control, including, without limitation, mechanical, electronic or communications failure or degradation.

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f. Notices. Unless otherwise specified in these Term of Service, all notices under these Terms of Service will be in writing and will be deemed to have been duly given when received, if personally delivered or sent by certified or registered mail, return receipt requested; when receipt is electronically confirmed, if transmitted by facsimile or e-mail; or the day after it is sent, if sent for next day delivery by recognized overnight delivery service. Electronic notices should be sent to support@gro-intelligence.com

g. No Waiver. Our failure to enforce any part of these Terms of Service shall not constitute a waiver of our right to later enforce that or any other part of these Terms of Service. Waiver of compliance in any particular instance does not mean that we will waive compliance in the future. In order for any waiver of compliance with these Terms of Service to be binding, we must provide you with written notice of such waiver through one of our authorized representatives.

h. Headings. The section and paragraph headings in these Terms of Service are for convenience only and shall not affect their interpretation.

Contact. You may contact us at the following address: 12 E 49th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10017.