Argentine Wheat Production Forecast to Rise

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service recently released its first 2018/19 Argentine wheat forecast. It calls for production and exports to reach “historic highs.” Wheat planting will begin this month, and if much-needed rains return, the outlook at harvest will remain positive. The bureau forecasts sown area will increase by 8.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) to 6.2 million hectares.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has taken a more conservative outlook, however. Analysts at the exchange expect acreage to rise just 3.5 percent YOY to 5.9 million hectares because of the region’s continued need for more rain. They forecast that wheat production will hit a historic high of 20 million tonnes, an increase of 1.6 million tonnes YOY.

Furthermore, the planting and production outlooks will likely boost exports, which the USDA expects to rise by 1.7 million tonnes from last year to 14.2 million tonnes in 2018/19. Current President Mauricio Macri’s elimination of export tariffs also supports export growth and encouraged farmers to plant more wheat. As Argentina enters the wheat planting season, Gro Intelligence subscribers can easily analyze local and international data to stay current with the market outlook.