In a year when China’s appetite for feed grain is disrupting corn balance sheets worldwide, South America’s corn growing season bears watching closely.
Argentina’s newly planted corn crop is being hit by drought and dry conditions brought on by La Niña, pushing production forecasts lower. Argentina, which is increasingly important to global supplies, is the world’s fourth-largest corn producer and third-largest corn exporter. Dry conditions also are damaging crop prospects in Brazil, the third-largest producer of corn and No. 2 exporter.
Gro just launched our Argentina Corn Yield Model, which enables users to track the crop’s progress throughout the growing season. Like all of our yield forecast models, our new machine-learning based Argentina model updates daily with yield forecasts at the district and national levels. We have also developed a corn crop mask for Argentina which enables us to do area estimates of corn.
Gro’s March forecast for Argentina corn yields has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of approximately 5% against the final district-level yields that are reported in September by the Ministry of Agriculture, or MAGyP. The MAPE against MAGyP for other available March forecasts of Argentina’s corn yield are approximately 8% for the USDA WASDE report, which only provides national estimates, and approximately 6.25% for Argentina’s Bolsa de Cereales.
Gro will soon launch our Brazilian Corn Yield Model as well, in time to provide forecasts for this growing season. As is the case with all our models, we will also release our corn crop mask for Brazil.
The new corn models complement Gro’s other yield forecast models for the region, including our Brazil and Argentina Soybean Yield Models and our Brazil Sao Paulo Sugarcane Crop Model.
If you are interested in learning more, Gro Intelligence will be hosting two webinars on Thursday, November 19 diving deeper into the models and exploring what the South American growing season will look like this year. Register below to save your seat.