Due to the USDA’s announcement on Friday that it will delay releasing its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for January because of the government shutdown, Gro Intelligence plans to provide to the public its own version of the report.
Gro will issue its global crop production and usage estimates at noon EST on Friday, Jan. 11, the same time WASDE was scheduled to come out.
Relying on its proprietary supply and demand models, Gro will generate forecasts for over 35 crops grown around the world in place of WASDE. These estimates will not only include production forecasts for every country and crop normally contained in the WASDE report, but will also include demand and trade forecasts for corn, soybeans, and wheat in major countries. Gro will also introduce forecasts for over 20 crops that are not contained in WASDE. In all, Gro will be releasing over 1,000 forecast models for various countries and crops globally.
Gro has been offering free subscriptions to the Gro data platform since the US government shutdown began on Dec. 22. Interested users can go to www.gro-intelligence.com/USGovShutdown to access all of Gro’s data and predictive models until the government fully reopens.
WASDE is the most closely followed report from the USDA for major commodities. Regular, monthly releases of WASDE keep agricultural market participants, from farmers to traders and food companies, up to date, thereby reducing market uncertainty and volatility. The canceled release of the WASDE report in October 2013, during a previous US government shutdown, was followed by sharp swings in commodity prices when the USDA finally disclosed the data in the subsequent month.
The USDA said it hadn’t yet set a new release date for the January WASDE report. Even if the US government resumes operations soon, the department said it wouldn’t have time to compile all the data that goes into creating the report. The January WASDE contains final crop production estimates for the prior growing season. Other key USDA statistics, including winter-wheat seedings and grain stocks, also will be delayed.
To produce forecasts that would have been contained in the WASDE report, Gro will rely on its sophisticated, machine-learning-based predictive yield models to forecast production. Gro will also produce demand and export forecasts by leveraging the diverse range of data sources that make up the over 35 million unique agriculture related variables available in Gro.