Gro’s New Planting Intentions Model Predicts What US Farmers Will Plant This Year

Gro’s recently launched US Planting Intentions Model forecasts the number of acres US farmers expect they will devote to each crop in the upcoming growing season. The model produces acreage predictions for US corn, soybeans, cotton, and spring wheat (including durum), at the state and national level, three weeks before the widely followed USDA Prospective Plantings report. Gro’s Planting Intentions Model allows users to assess seed and input demand by state and region, and can help anticipate crop supply availability in the fall. 

Gro’s model is forecasting that US farmers will plant 88.6 million acres of soybeans for the 2021/22 year. It also predicts that farmers intend to increase both US corn and cotton plantings this year. Spring wheat acreage is projected to decline year over year, offsetting acreage gains in the winter wheat crop planted last fall. Gro’s Planting Intentions Model output is available to Gro Enterprise users. If interested in learning more about the model and its output, please contact us at intel@gro-intelligence.com

The acreage competition between crops varies by state and region, and therefore requires a look at multiple variables that impact a farmer’s planting decisions. Relative profitability among crops largely depends on local cash prices, yields, and costs. Planting intentions offer the first real indicator of available supply for an upcoming season. 

The profitability ratios that spur acreage shifts among crops is different for each state. Gro developed a Crop Budgets app to evaluate these differences, as we demonstrated in our webinar “What Will US Farmers Plant This Year”, a recording of which is available here. As announced on the webinar, the Gro Crop Budgets app is currently in its beta phase, and we are offering a two-week trial to try it out. If interested please email us at intel@gro-intelligence.com to sign up.

With supplies of many agricultural products currently tight, the US needs a near perfect spring and summer growing season to ensure adequate supplies, even with the increased acreage forecast by Gro’s Planting Intentions Model.  Even a moderate, adverse weather event could cause big price swings. Gro’s in-season Yield Forecast Models, along with Gro’s Prevent Plant Model and numerous other weather and climate offerings, offer a well-rounded view of expected supply. 

 

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