Ivory Coast’s Unrest and Cocoa Prices

Ivory Coast’s military standoff may be over, but the world’s largest cocoa producer is no stranger to instability. In fact, cocoa futures tend to soar on any inkling of unrest in the country. However, the corresponding market environments can be widely different. At the start of the First Ivorian Civil War in 2002, the world was contending with a multi-year shortage, whereas a glut is being forecast for 2017. Surprisingly, the country’s exports were fairly resilient during the war. Traders should probably expect a similar outcome as business returns to normal.