Last month, the USDA revised its reported US soybean yield per acre figure for the 2018/2019 marketing season. Until its latest Grain Stocks report, the USDA’s figure had appeared final, remaining constant at 51.6 bushels per acre since the Crop Production Annual Summary report in February 2019. After revising its yield down to 50.6 bushels per acre on September 30, the USDA number now aligns perfectly with Gro’s forecast which was finalized almost a year prior in November 2018.
Despite the fact that their revision applies to a growing season almost a year behind us, the USDA's change results in approximately 100 million fewer bushels of soybeans now in storage -- a significant amount in today's tumultuous market.
This latest revision by the USDA also confirms the predictive power of Gro's yield models, which continue to predict final yields in season, months before final release by government agencies. The chart below provides a running comparison for Gro’s forecast relative to the USDA since the beginning of the 2018 season.