Argentina is the fifth-largest corn producer in the world. Argentina exports the majority of the corn it produces, making it an important country to watch for monitoring global trade dynamics.
Gro’s Argentina Corn Forecast Yield Model is updated daily, providing in-season yields at the district, province, and national levels throughout the growing season.
When combined with our other Corn Forecast Yield Models, for China, the United States, and Brazil, Gro is able to forecast more than 70% of global corn production in a given year, providing users with a highly accurate, real-time window into global corn supply.
How the Model Was Built
Gro’s district-level yield model for corn in Argentina was built using machine-learning techniques that rely on weather and environmental data. The model performs particularly well in high yield and production areas. When data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture (MAGyP) is taken as the ground truth, Gro’s Forecast Yield Model is more accurate than USDA forecasts.
Modeling corn yield in Argentina presents particular challenges when compared to other yield models we have built at Gro. There are significant differences in weather, soil conditions, and technology adoption throughout the country, which results in high spatial variation of crop yields.
Another challenge is obtaining reliable ground truth data in Argentina. For example, MAGyP’s historical yield and area estimates at the district level fluctuate widely from year to year. They are also reported with a one-year lag.
Gro’s Argentina Corn Forecast Yield Model uses the following variables:
- Yield, area, and production history
- 8-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)
- Land surface temperature
- Weather forecasts of air temperature and precipitation
- Evapotranspiration difference from 10-yr median (2003-2013)
- Latitude and longitude
- 30-meter resolution cropland masks