Introduction

The China Ag Price Index tracks national average prices for a basket of important food commodities, including grains, vegetable oils, fresh produce, and proteins. The index, which updates daily, is based on consumer spending and includes high-frequency local cash price data. Government data on monthly inflation is typically reported in the following month. Gro’s inflation data is available up to six weeks ahead of a government inflation report.

Customers Use the Model to: 

  • Understand food inflation in China six weeks ahead of the government’s China Food CPI report
  • Analyze which commodities are driving overall food inflation on a month-to-month basis 
  • Build a custom-weighted index to analyze how a basket of goods central to a company’s core business is affected by inflation 
  • Use price indices to predict revenues or costs in real time

Why It Matters

China is the world’s biggest importing country of agricultural products. Its food prices constitute about one-third of the weightings in the official Consumer Price Index (CPI). Understanding food inflation is especially important because food accounts for a large share of total household expenditures. The Gro China Ag Price Index can be customized and weighted for Gro users to reflect their particular commodities of interest. Gro developed its series of Ag Price Indices in response to the unprecedented global supply chain disruptions and commodity price volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Ag Price Indices fill a significant market deficiency by providing real-time analysis of inflation trends ahead of government-reported indicators.

Methodology

Each Ag Price Index is built on the Gro Platform by combining hundreds of thousands of unique price series at the national, regional, and local levels (e.g., cities, processing facilities, grain elevators, and ports). We aggregate this price data using a basket that represents the food consumption expenditures within the economy.

Related Analytics: 

Related Insights

The rapid spread of COVID-19 led to unprecedented supply chain disruptions worldwide, as well as significant commodity price volatility. The pandemic first brought supply chain disruptions to China, and then the US. Gro’s Ag Price Indices provide real-time analysis for tracking how inflation is changing daily, ahead of the release of government indicators.