The China Pork Demand Forecast Model is able to predict China’s pork consumption for the next calendar year 10 months before the USDA's first forecast and 2.5 years before the USDA tends to release its final number. To build the model, which is updated daily, Gro tested over 400 features within price, trade, consumption, supply, climate, demographics, and economic data. Gro starts making forecasts on January 1 of the year preceding the forecast year, giving users time to make normal business decisions around purchasing and sales.
Customers Use the Model to:
- Forecast how much corn and soybeans China will need to import, which impacts seed and crop protection demand and planting intentions in the US and South America
- Predict shifts in commodity prices based on changing demand for pork and the consequent demand for high-protein feed
- Model how Chinese demand is impacting margins for the production of pork across the supply chain
- Collect data around Chinese pork consumption 1 year ahead of the USDA to enable purchasing and sales decisions
Why It Matters
As the world's largest pork producer and consumer, China is a key driver of global prices for pork, beef, chicken, grains, and oilseeds. Each additional pound of pork eaten in China requires an additional 5 pounds of grain and oilseed from somewhere in the world. The more pork China consumes, the more corn and soybean meal is needed to raise hogs. Tracking global feed supply and demand is critical for managing shifts in feed prices as meat consumption continues to grow globally. Gro’s China Hog Balance Sheet also pairs with the Pork Demand Model to provide a comprehensive view of hog and pork markets.