The Fall Armyworm (FAW) Arrival and Risk Framework uses inputs such as weather and occurrence data to assess risk and identify when the fall armyworms will arrive. FAW is controlled with pesticides, which has implications for input companies selling or purchasing pesticides in the impacted regions.

Customers Use the Model to: 

  • Estimate when fall armyworm will arrive in a major crop growing region 
  • Forecast how fall armyworm infestation will drive demand for crop protection products 
  • Inform input companies’ sales and marketing strategies for marketing their product portfolio to farmers in at-risk areas 

Why It Matters

Fall armyworms (FAWs) significantly impact the yield of different crops. The pest can survive year round in tropical climates and migrates to areas that experience sub-freezing weather in the winter. The larval or caterpillar stage is the most destructive to corn, sorghum, and sugarcane. A fall armyworm life cycle ranges from 30-90 days depending on the temperature. A female moth can lay between 900-1,000 eggs in a lifetime and fly up to 500km before laying eggs. Gro originally developed our Fall Armyworm Arrival and Risk Framework in response to the spread of FAW across Asia in late 2018 and into 2019. Gro’s Rapid Response Data Science team organized disparate data and quickly applied it to make sense of a significant emerging issue.


By combining historical fall armyworm presence data with Gro's land surface temperature data, the model enables users to assess the arrival date of FAWs and infestation risk levels once FAWs have arrived. This model does not predict the severity of damage caused by FAW.

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