Introduction
The Gro Supply Forecast Model Framework offers a framework that uses relatively simple methods to forecast supply. The framework can be applied to crop-country pairs in cases where investing in a full-blown machine-learning model is not warranted.
Customers Use the Model to:
- Determine what production for X crop in Y country could be
- Estimate supply rapidly in response to market moving events
- Estimate production to assess its impact on the rest of the supply and demand balance sheet
- Predict production for smaller countries where a Gro Yield Forecast Model is not available
Why It Matters
Since the framework can be applied to any crop-country pair, Gro API users can easily estimate supply for any market and during market moving events. Gro first developed this framework in response to the US government shutdown in early 2019. We used the framework to create our own production forecasts for several major countries, thereby filling in for the USDA WASDE, which missed two monthly reports as a result of the shutdown.