Gro’s US Soy Area-Planted Forecast Model predicts how much the number of soybean-planted acres will change between the USDA’s June Acreage report and the final numbers being released. Gro’s early projections of final planted area are reported at the county level. Area planted affects production estimates for the upcoming harvest, which will impact regional and global supply and demand balance sheets.

Customers Use the Model to

  • Estimate the change in soy-area-planted numbers from the USDA’s June acreage report to the final numbers
  • Assess crop supplies and prices in local regions by combining with Gro’s yield forecast model 
  • Track how production is shifting

Why It Matters

The US Soy Area-Planted Model is important in assessing crop supplies and price. In addition, knowledge of harvested area and yield can show Gro users how production may be shifting. The model can be used to assess the likelihood of USDA revisions. Any changes in crop area in the US, one of the largest agricultural producers globally, will impact global crop supply and prices.

Methodology

Gro’s model improves upon the widely analyzed USDA Acreage report (June 30) by breaking it down to the county (district) level and continues to fine-tune the data using satellite imagery. The model is able to provide district-level granularity by mathematically dividing up the state level data in the USDA report. The USDA does not update its planted acreage forecast typically until the October WASDE report, after it incorporates a few months of Farm Service Agency data, and final planted acreage is reported in January. Gro’s estimates provide a more accurate reflection of true planted area beginning in mid-July.

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