First Drought, Now Frost Threatens Brazilian Corn

01 July 2021

Ongoing drought in southern Brazil has already severely cut the production outlook for corn in the world’s second largest exporter. Gro’s Brazil corn forecast yield model has projected well below trend yields since the start of the season, and the USDA recently lowered its 2020/21 corn production forecast for the country by 3.5 million tonnes to 98.5 million tonnes. Now, risk of an early frost in the country’s second largest producing state means yields could fall even further.

Already tight global corn supplies mean further declines in Brazil’s crop could necessitate demand rationing. There’s little room for the United States, the world’s largest corn producer, to offset supply deficits from Brazil. US corn supplies are tight and prices have rallied 44% since January. Further production declines in Brazil would mean an even tighter global balance sheet unless the US crop achieves above-trend corn yields. 

Gro’s weather forecast models indicate that the risk of frost will persist throughout the week, with temperatures below freezing expected in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Caterina until July 2.

Gro’s Brazil Corn Yield Forecast Model, which updates daily at the district level, will be able to capture any of the damage in near real-time. 

Today’s USDA reports on US planted acreage will be closely watched as the world’s second largest supplier faces shortfalls. Follow Gro’s in-season US Corn Yield Forecast Model for up-to-date readings on US corn supply.

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.

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