Forecast for Continued Dryness Puts Argentina Soy Production at Risk

Gro’s Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast Model currently predicts soybean production of about 48 million tonnes in 2020/21, down about 2% from last year and in line with the USDA’s February WASDE estimate. But that outlook could deteriorate further as forecasts call for hot and dry conditions to continue over the next two weeks.  

Argentina is the No. 1 exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil, and persistent drought there, together with a delayed soybean harvest in Brazil, has pushed CBOT soybean futures to approach 7-year highs. Previous drought years in Argentina led to steep declines in soybean output. In 2017/18, production plunged 31% from the previous year, and in 2019/20 it fell 12%. 

Argentine soybean production is concentrated in Cordoba, Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios provinces, as seen with Gro’s Crop Cover feature. Those areas remain under heightened drought conditions, brought on by the La Niña climate event, according to the Gro Drought Index. 

So far, NDVI, an important measure of vegetative health and a key input for Gro’s Yield Forecast Models, has held up fairly well for the Argentine crop. But insufficient rain in key soybean producing areas in coming weeks could cause the current outlook to deteriorate further ahead of the start to harvest in May. Use Gro to stay on top of weather forecasts and their impact on the Gro Argentina Soybean Yield Forecast Model.  

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.