Brazil’s upcoming coffee crop may get a boost as welcome rainfall arrives ahead of the important flowering season following a very dry winter.
Brazil’s Arabica coffee growing regions have received more than 40mm of rainfall over the past two weeks, more than three times the amount during the same period last year, as seen via this Gro Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture display. Both soil moisture levels and land surface temperature in the regions also are climbing and are comparable to levels last seen in 2019, when Brazil produced a bumper coffee crop.
Farm owners in Sao Paulo state say they are hoping the promising rainfall and declining drought conditions, following 12 months of difficult weather problems, will bring a better coffee harvest next year.
Brazil is the largest coffee-growing country in the world, producing 40% of Arabica coffee, a popular bean. This year, as Brazil’s Arabica trees finish the off-year of the biennial production cycle after extreme in-season drought, global Arabica coffee production is declining and global ending inventories are expected to drop.
But wildcards can still weigh on next year’s crop. The prolonged drought might have overly stressed the trees, impacting the following year’s crop. And the expected return of a La Nina global climate event later this year could once again result in dry conditions in Brazil.