Soy Supplies Tighten on Brazil Harvest Delays, but Gro Sees Record Crop

Brazil’s soybean harvest is running behind schedule, and Gro’s weather forecast model signals further widespread rains across the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso for the week ahead that are expected to keep fieldwork slow. Local reports recently put Brazil’s soy harvest at just 25% complete, the slowest pace in 10 years. 

Still, Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model is currently predicting a record-breaking crop. That should ensure sufficient soybean supplies once Brazil’s harvest is completed.

Brazil’s delayed soybean harvest is having ripple effects worldwide, sending CBOT futures prices sharply higher and tightening supplies from the US to China. In China, the largest importer of soybeans, soybean stocks dropped sharply in January, as shipments from Brazil were the lowest in seven years. China’s domestic soybean prices have rallied and crushing margins are lower. 

Drought in Brazil slowed soybean planting in 2020, and now heavy rains have drenched fields and hampered early soybean harvesting. 

Brazil is the world’s No.1 soybean producer and exporter, and is normally the biggest global supplier of soybeans from March through September. But this marketing year the United States has stepped up soy shipments to make up for Brazil’s export shortfall. That in turn has pushed US old crop supplies to their lowest level in seven years. 

Delays from Brazil’s harvest have kept soybean prices elevated, providing incentive for US farmers to plant additional acres to soybeans in 2021.  

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.