Ukraine Winter Wheat Looks Set for Bumper Crop, Gro Model Signals

20 September 2021

Ukraine’s new winter wheat crop will be significantly larger than last year, Gro’s model indicates, as much improved planting conditions lead to a 10% jump in winter wheat acreage.

A favorable Ukraine crop would be good news for world supplies after disappointing harvests in the US, Canada, and Russia led to reduced global wheat production last season and lower world ending stocks. That has kept futures prices at levels not seen since 2014.  

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry said farmers expect to plant 6.68 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2022/23 marketing year, which begins next July, up sharply from 6.1 million hectares in the previous year when early-season drought cut into area planted. So far this season, favorable growing conditions, including adequate soil moisture, are prevailing in Ukraine’s winter wheat areas, as seen in this Gro Navigator for Agriculture display

Gro’s Ukraine Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model, available to Gro Standard subscribers, has begun issuing daily updates of yield predictions at the provincial level, and is currently pointing to a sharp jump in Ukraine production. With planting just getting underway, yield outcomes can change significantly in the months until harvest, and it’s important to monitor the crop’s outlook and growing conditions in Gro on a regular basis.

Winter wheat areas in Russia, another big producer, also are seeing improved growing conditions relative to last year, Gro’s Navigator for Agriculture shows. Gro Drought Index readings for Russia’s chief winter wheat-producing regions are much diminished from last year’s levels. 

Gro has created a Black Sea Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model that combines yield predictions for both Ukraine and Russia. Much of the Black Sea region’s wheat is exported to North Africa and Asia.  

Australia has begun harvesting its new winter wheat crop, and expected production of 32.6 million tonnes, while lower than last year’s bumper crop, was recently increased by 17% from the June estimate. 

Gro plans soon to launch its Australia Wheat Yield Forecast Model, which will provide users with daily updates on the important Australian crop weeks ahead of official government estimates.   

North American winter wheat planting also has begun. Gro users can use Gro analytics to track planting progress for soft red winter wheat and for hard red winter wheat by individual state. Gro’s US Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model also will provide daily yield forecast updates once the growing season gets underway. 

The USDA, in its August WASDE report, cut wheat production estimates for Russia, Canada, and the US for the 2021/22 season. The USDA now estimates Russian production will be down 15% YoY, while production in Canada and the US will be down 35% and 7%, respectively. 

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.

 

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