USDA Confirms Gro’s Forecasts for Corn and Soybeans

09 November 2021

US corn yield prospects improved over the past month, while soybean yields declined. In its November WASDE report, the USDA revised its yield estimates for the two crops, bringing them into line with Gro’s own yield forecasts. 

The USDA raised its corn yield estimate to 177.0 bushels per acre, essentially matching Gro’s projection of 177.2 bu/acre. For soybeans, the USDA is now expecting 51.2 bu/acre, compared with Gro’s 51.1 bu/acre. 

Gro’s machine-learning yield forecast models update daily during the growing season, providing users with yield estimates weeks ahead of official USDA reports. View this display for a performance comparison between Gro’s US corn and soybean yield forecast models and USDA estimates. 

The USDA’s expected increase in corn yield and production was more than matched by greater demand for corn used to manufacture ethanol. In an earlier Insight article, Gro predicted that rising ethanol production would cut into corn ending stocks. 

Meanwhile, the slight decline in expected soybean yield and production was met with reduced demand for exports, which increased estimates for 2021/22 ending stocks.

Gro’s US Corn Monitor and US Soybean Monitor Displays contain a range of ready-to-use information, including Gro’s yield forecasts, commodity prices, stocks-to-use ratios, and supply/demand balance sheets. 

The overall trend for US soybean exports right now isn’t encouraging. China, the largest destination for US soybeans, has been largely absent from the market as crushing plants remain idled and margins are poor. Gro's monthly export data shows September soybean exports at a seven-year low. And early export sales of new crop soybeans are disappointing, with total sales commitments down 33% from this time last year. 

Follow Gro’s Chinese soybean prices and crush margin data for an early read on China’s import needs. 

An early start to soybean planting in Brazil is also weighing on soybean futures. The USDA expects Brazil to grow a record 144 million tonnes in 2022 and the early start means some soybeans may be available as soon as January, narrowing the US export window. 

While South American growing conditions are currently favorable, the return of a La Niña weather pattern could bring hot and dry weather to Argentina and southern Brazil in the December to February growing period. Gro’s yield forecast models will start generating daily forecasts for Brazil and Argentina in mid-December, and Gro’s South American Crop Monitor Displays for corn and soybeans allow users to monitor yields, growing conditions, and export prices for those important crops.

Join Gro on November 18th as we introduce our new automated Global Balance Sheets and show how data-driven, objective supply and demand balances for corn, soybeans, and other crops can help you make more effective market forecasts. Sign up here.  

 

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