Gro China Wheat Model Forecasts Higher Production

China’s high corn prices have encouraged greater use of wheat in animal feed. As a result, knowing how much wheat China will produce domestically this year is critical to estimating the country’s wheat import needs, and may also have a big impact on corn demand. 

Gro’s newly launched China Wheat Yield Forecast Model is currently predicting China’s wheat production will increase from last year’s output, although the Gro projection is slightly below USDA estimates. Gro’s forecast suggests that China may be able to trim its wheat import needs this year from the record high 10.5 million tonnes estimated for 2020/21. 

China’s feed grain needs remain strong, as seen via outstanding new crop purchases of US corn. But wheat demand for feed will also continue, as domestic wheat prices are offered at some of the largest-ever discounts to corn. China’s wheat feed use in 2021/22 is estimated at 35 million tonnes, down from a record 40 million tonnes a year earlier, according to the USDA. 

China is the world’s largest producer of wheat but it also ranked as one of the largest importers of wheat in 2020. Chinese buying has been a key factor in driving global grain prices to multiyear highs.

Gro’s China Wheat Yield Forecast Model, available to Gro’s Premium subscribers, allows users to track the crop’s progress throughout the growing season. The machine-learning-based model, which updates daily with yield projections at the provincial and national levels, employs two separate models to track one public and one private data source. 

The China wheat model complements Gro’s other forecast models for the country, including Gro’s China Corn Yield Forecast Model and China Pork Demand Forecast Model. Together, they enable users to piece together an understanding of China’s demand for imported grain, and consequently, its impact on the global price environment. 

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.