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January WASDE to Show Bumper Yields for US Corn and Soy, Gro Predicts

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Ahead of next week’s WASDE report, Gro’s final 2021/22 yield estimates show a record year for corn and the second-best soybean crop ever. Throughout the growing season, Gro’s US corn and soybean yield model predictions have been particularly prescient ahead of the monthly WASDE releases, as we reported here and here

The January WASDE is one of the USDA’s most consequential reports, containing final US numbers for the past season and projections for the current season in the Southern Hemisphere. In light of this, Gro today is releasing our own Global Supply and Demand Forecasts report for January in anticipation of the WASDE, due out January 12.

Download Gro’s complete January Supply and Demand Forecasts report in PDF form here. Like the WASDE, the Gro report includes final US crop estimates for the previous crop season, state-by-state crop production forecasts, estimates for soybean balances in Brazil and Argentina, and forecasts of South American corn yields. Many Gro forecasts are being made freely available to the public that are normally exclusive to Gro subscribers. Because our models update daily, these estimates represent their output as of January 5, 2022.

Gro’s January Global Supply and Demand Forecasts report can serve as a springboard for honing forecasts and projecting supply/demand balances for the coming season for virtually any market participant, from traders and analysts to procurement managers and government officials. 

Our estimates have been developed using the Gro platform’s extensive network of surveyed and remotely sensed data, data analytics, forecast models, and weather/climate indicators. Our machine-learning models, which update daily, predict official government indicators up to six months ahead of government estimates — while still producing a result that is within 2%-5% of final government numbers. To learn more about Gro’s forecasting track record, read our performance report here

According to Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model, final corn yields for the 2021/22 marketing year were at 177.3 bushels per acre as of Jan. 5, a slight increase versus the USDA’s projection of 177 bu/acre in its December WASDE report. For soybeans, Gro’s final yield estimate for 2021/22 was 51.1 bu/acre, compared with USDA’s 51.2 bu/acre. 

Click here for Gro’s US Corn and Soybean Yield Forecast Models, and view this display to see how Gro’s yield forecast models performed against USDA estimates. 

Soybean yields in the latest season varied widely across the US Midwest, with darker greens representing higher yielding counties on this map of Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model. The model, like all of Gro’s machine-learning forecast models, updates daily during the growing season.

In the USDA’s upcoming January WASDE report, Gro expects upward revisions to corn ethanol as well as changes to soybean crush estimates. 

Our 2021/22 estimate of US corn demand for ethanol is 5.305 billion bushels, 55 million bushels ahead of the forecast in the USDA’s December WASDE report. 

Gro’s US Soybean Crush Forecast Model is projecting a lower crush estimate than USDA. Lower available supply, particularly carry-in stocks, are reducing Gro’s prediction for annual crush in 2021/22. In the first three months of the marketing year, cumulative crush is 7 million bushels lower than last season. To monitor Gro’s US Soybean Crush Forecast Model, click here.

The Gro US Soybean Export Forecast Model is projecting a higher estimate than the USDA for 2021/22. Gro’s early season forecast gives added weight to the historical ratio of exports to production, while total export commitments become a bigger factor as the season progresses. Click here to monitor Gro’s US Soybean Export Forecast Model as the model’s estimates update. 

Gro first created a Global Supply and Demand Forecasts report in 2019, when the US government shutdown delayed the WASDE release. Since then, our coverage of global supply and demand balances using automated predictive models has expanded greatly. Gro’s models now cover 80% of global production for corn, soy, and wheat.

​​After the January WASDE release, attention will turn to US prospective plantings for the 2022 crop year. Join Gro’s research analyst team for our webinar on March 3, What Will Farmers Plant in 2022?, to hear our predictions for US planting intentions for the upcoming season. 
 

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