While La Niña is creating drought and dry conditions in many parts of the world, including Brazil, Argentina, and the US, the global climate event is bringing additional precipitation to other areas, such as Australia. In fact, Australian wheat production in 2020/21 is forecast to jump by more than 90% from the previous year, as rains have returned after a prolonged drought.
Projections indicate wheat production of 28.9 million tonnes, up from 15.2 million tonnes in 2019/2020. If realized, this will be Australia’s third-largest wheat crop since the record-high production levels of 2016/2017 and 2011/2012, both previous La Niña events.
The increase in precipitation will support grain fill and boost yields. Planted area is also at the highest level seen in years, adding to improved production.
Current models do not suggest this year’s La Niña to be as strong as 2010-2012. Still, the increase in wheat production out of Australia is expected to partially offset expected declines from South America and the Black Sea, along with potential US setbacks.
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