USDA Drops US Corn Stocks Estimate by 12%, but Gro Expects More Cuts

The USDA in its June WASDE report cut deeply into its estimate for US corn ending stocks for 2020/21 and 2021/22. However, Gro expects the USDA will need to tighten its outlook further as worldwide demand for US corn continues to expand.

The USDA now expects 2020/21 US corn ending stocks of 28.12 million tonnes (1.107 billion bushels), down 12% from its month-earlier estimate. Behind the revision is expected lower Brazilian corn output and increased US corn use for ethanol. Gro’s models have long indicated that USDA estimates needed revisions in these areas.

The USDA dropped its forecast for Brazilian corn production by 3.4% from last month’s WASDE, a shortfall that will shift trade flows to US and Ukraine soils. Gro’s Brazil Corn Yield Forecast Model has been predicting a decline for months on the country’s continuing drought, and Gro expects additional cuts to USDA estimates in subsequent reports. 

With heightened global demand for US corn, all eyes will be on this year’s US supply. Gro’s in-season US Corn Yield Forecast Model provides an early view on US supply availability in near real time for every county in the US.  

In soybeans, the USDA slightly increased US ending stocks for 2020/21 and 2021/22 on expected lower crush volumes. Despite the uptick, US soybean stocks-to-use remain remarkably tight. And with China's demand still looking strong, there is little margin for adverse weather this season. Gro users can follow Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model on a daily basis for an up-to-date reading on available US soybean supply. 

The USDA moderately reduced US new crop wheat ending stocks due to higher use. The department’s estimates don’t yet account for drought in spring wheat areas, as can be seen via Gro’s Drought Index, but do reflect an uptick in hard red winter wheat, as reflected in Gro’s US Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model.

As the US growing season gets going, markets remain largely focused on weather. Gro’s vast array of weather and climate data, readily available in our Gro Explorer app, as seen here for the Iowa corn crop, provide valuable tools for your forecasting needs, and can help identify potential trading signals to inform daily decisions. 

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.