Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model
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Gro’s Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model helps users as they develop pre-season and in-season plans based on projected supply and demand balance sheets and anticipated exports of soybean products.

Argentina, the largest exporter of soybean products in the world, primarily uses its large soybean crop in the domestic crushing industry. Other soybean crush estimates, including the USDA’s, make assumptions about the balance sheet and adjust in-season, but these forecasts update with a considerable lag that can mislead supply and demand estimates. Gro’s Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model arrives at its production number quicker because it combines Gro’s yield model, which updates daily, with monthly crush data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture (MAGyP).

Customers Use This Tool To

  • Forecast soybeans crush total both ahead of the season and in-season 
  • Get a breakdown of Argentina’s total soybean use 
  • Arrive at more accurate futures prices by incorporating soybean crush forecasts into Gro’s Automated Balance Sheet app or into a proprietary supply and demand balance sheet

 

Why this Matters

The crush model forecast gives users the ground truth for forecasting crush availability,  which impacts soybean and soybean oil prices globally.

 

Methodology

The Argentina Soybean Crush Forecast Model uses two approaches to predict soybean crush, depending on the date of the prediction. To make predictions before the start of Argentina’s marketing year, we use a ratio of USDA crush to the sum of production and stock. Our model looks at trends in this ratio, from 2002 to the present, to predict soybean crush for the next year. For predictions made after the start of the marketing year, we calculate the year-over-year difference for monthly crush data from MAGyP to accurately predict production. The model has been backtested on both USDA and MAGyP ground truth soybean crush values.

 

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