Gro Climate Indicator Projection - Heavy Precipitation

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Gro’s Climate Indicator Projection - Heavy Precipitation (GCIP-HP) shows future extreme precipitation using CMIP6 projections for future rainfall. 

The GCIP-HP represents the 95th percentile (“P95”) of daily precipitation over all wet days; it covers any region worldwide, down to the district level, for any year up to 2095. 

To produce an accurate estimate of heavy precipitation, Gro corrects for climate model bias by calibrating the GCIP-HP to observed historical records. Climate models often have biases in both the mean and probability distribution of precipitation, meaning that P95 might be too low or too high if not bias-corrected. 

By combining climate model simulations of historical climate with observations of precipitation from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite (which is also available through Gro), we derive a bias correction factor for P95 which we can then apply to our future climate simulations.

Customers use the indicator to

  • Identify geographical areas and physical assets or operations that will likely see an increase or decrease in heavy precipitation at levels that can cause negative impacts
  • Project future extreme weather and precipitation events through 2095
  • Plan and prepare for climate change effects

Why It Matters

Extreme precipitation is a climate peril that is likely to change considerably as climate change progresses. Much of the world is expected to experience an increase in the frequency and the intensity of heavy rainfall events due to weather pattern shifts linked to climate change. Heavy rainfall events can have multiple negative impacts, ranging from crop loss to urban flooding to landslides.

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