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Featured

The US corn crop is in its critical pollination stage, and hot and dry conditions are weighing on yields. Gro’s model is currently signaling the US will have one of the weakest corn harvests in years.&nbsp;Current predictions by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdP3v8395" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s machine-learning US Corn Yield Forecast Model</a> are lower than the USDA’s latest national yield projections. While the Gro model predicts comparatively stronger yields in some Eastern Corn Belt states, such as Wisconsin and Illinois, this is not enough to offset steeper yield declines in parts of the Western Corn Belt, including Nebraska and Kansas.&nbsp;Overall, Gro’s forecast indicates that corn stocks in the US, the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/K9p7OjBRE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">world’s largest producer</a> and exporter of corn, will remain at some of their tightest levels in nearly a decade. With hot and dry conditions also depressing corn production in EU countries, and continued uncertainty around Ukraine grain exports, global corn supplies will decline in 2022/23 and contribute to food insecurity in many parts of the world already reeling from drought-induced crop shortfalls.&nbsp;View Gro’s US Corn Monitor <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdP3v8395" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, which displays the Gro US Corn Yield Forecast Model, Gro’s corn supply and demand balance sheet, stocks-to-use ratios, and other data.&nbsp;Soil moisture levels, weighted to US corn growing areas using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, show readings at their lowest in more than a decade, particularly in the West. Limited rainfall and above normal temperatures have reduced the corn crop’s moisture profile, putting stress on yields. The success of the 2022 corn crop will depend on how widely yields diverge between areas of the Western Corn Belt and the rest of the Corn Belt.&nbsp;The <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/K9pxpDr9E" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">GFS weather forecast</a> for the next week, seen in the Gro Portal, turns exceptionally hot once again with above normal temperatures in portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, parts of Iowa, Kansas, and as far south as Nebraska. The Eastern Corn Belt will see more moderate temperatures, albeit still warm, along with chances of rainfall.Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator allows you to monitor growing conditions — including temperature, precipitation, and Gro indices for drought and vegetative health — highlighted for a specific crop’s planted area at the county, state, and national levels. View a Navigator display weighted for US corn <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, or schedule a demo with our sales team <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a> to learn how Climate Risk Navigator can be tailored to your organization’s needs.While still early in the season for soybeans, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/B2da7KVRn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a> also currently indicates yields will be below the latest USDA projections. August and September weather have the greatest bearing on US soybean yields. However, extended weather forecasts as the calendar flips to August is not favorable for soybean pod set and pod fill.&nbsp; &nbsp;

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US Corn Harvest Headed for Multi-Year Low, Gro Predicts

Heat waves are scorching sunflower crops across European Union countries, dashing hopes the region could reduce its vegetable oil import needs by growing more of the oilseeds domestically.&nbsp;An aggregation of growing conditions for all of the EU’s sunflower-growing areas shows that the Gro vegetative health index, a key indicator of plant health, is at one of its lowest levels in more than two decades, according to Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture.&nbsp;In addition, the Gro Drought Index, for acres planted to sunflowers, is at its highest reading in nearly 20 years, while soil moisture levels are the lowest in more than a decade.&nbsp;View a Navigator display weighted for EU sunflower planted area <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1290,EU-28$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Sunflowers%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:1290,EU-28" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>, or schedule a demo with our sales team <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a> to learn how Climate Risk Navigator can be tailored to your organization’s needs.<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1658870394/new-website/Gro_Vegetative_Health_Index_for_Sunflower_Planted_Area_in_the_EU_2516d04f90.png"><figcaption>An aggregation of growing conditions for all of the EU’s sunflower-growing areas, using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, shows that the Gro vegetative health index (red line), a key indicator of plant health, is at one of its lowest levels in more than two decades. A similar index reading was seen in 2007 (blue line).</figcaption></figure>EU countries traditionally relied on Ukraine to supply more than 40% of the bloc’s sunflower oil imports. An agreement to restart Ukrainian agricultural exports from the country’s war-blocked Black Sea ports was signed last Friday, which could help restore sunflower oil shipments to the EU. But questions about the export agreement’s implementation persist after Russia subsequently launched a missile attack on the port of Odessa.&nbsp;Most <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/09EYVPl9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sunflower seeds in the EU</a> are crushed to make vegetable oil, which is mainly used in the food industry and for manufacturing biofuels. EU acreage planted to sunflowers was expanded by 1% this year, just shy of the 2013 record for area planted, to increase domestic production and partly offset Ukraine’s blocked exports.&nbsp;However, poor growing conditions suggest the EU harvest will decrease. The Gro vegetative health index and Gro Drought Index, weighted for EU sunflower acres using the Gro Climate Risk Navigator, are both closely tracking readings last seen in 2007, when EU sunflower production fell by 26% year over year.&nbsp;In Romania, which produces nearly one-third of the EU sunflower crop, growing conditions are slightly more favorable, although soil moisture remains at a decade low, as can be seen in <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1167,Romania$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Sunflowers%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:14,Europe:1167,Romania" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Climate Risk Navigator display</a>. Europe’s sunflower crop is harvested in September and October.&nbsp;Sunflower oil accounts for about 10% of vegetable oils consumed worldwide. Edible oils, which are used by nearly all consumer packaged goods companies, are generally interchangeable, so a shortage of one type exerts price pressure on the others.&nbsp;Globally, the outlook for US soybean oil supplies remains uncertain as hot and dry conditions bake the US Midwest. Palm oil represents a bright spot for procurement managers worldwide as Indonesia seeks to boost exports to reduce bloated domestic inventories. Another bright spot: Australia is expected to produce a second record crop of canola.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;

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EU’s Vegetable Oil Imports to Rise as Sunflower Crop Withers

Soybean meal futures rallied sharply this week amid strong US domestic demand for physical soymeal. The front-month August contract, which set a new high on Friday, traded at its widest premium over the September contract since 2014.&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6Rw1wvLdW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CBOT soybean meal futures</a> have rallied over 15% in the past week. Soybean meal is a crucial feed ingredient for pork, poultry, and aquaculture. Soybeans are crushed to make soybean meal and soybean oil, which is used as a food product and to make biofuels.&nbsp;The soymeal price rally comes as the US Midwest’s hot and dry conditions threaten to pressure the new soybean crop. Weather in August and September have the greatest bearing on US soybean yields, and the near-term forecast as the calendar flips to August is not favorable for pod set and pod fill. With the US soybean balance sheet razor thin, new crop yields will have a direct influence on <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDZ5PldV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean prices</a>.&nbsp;Track progress of the new US soybean crop using Gro’s US Soybean Monitor <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/B2da7KVRn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. The Monitor includes displays of the Gro Soybean Yield Forecast Model, Soybean Balance Sheet, Gro Drought Index, as well as charts on crush rates and exports.&nbsp;The difference between the cost of raw soybeans and the combined sales values of the derived products is known as the crush spread and represents the potential profit margin for soybean processors.&nbsp;Previously, crush spreads were widening due to rising soybean oil prices. For much of 2021 and 2022, soybean oil futures found support from supply constraints in palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia, and prospects of new demand for manufacturing biofuels, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/growth-of-us-biofuels-heightens-demand-for-soybean-oil" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. But following the recent downturn in palm oil prices, which competes with soybean oil for many uses, soybean oil futures lost their luster.&nbsp;Back in 2014, soybean meal futures contract spreads also widened sharply as soybean supplies tightened because of drought and demand rose. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdom8gARL" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US soybean ending stocks</a> in 2013/14 were 35% lower than the previous year, limiting availability of soybeans used for crushing. Today, soybean supplies are once again tight, with ending stocks for 2022/23 forecast at a seven-year low.&nbsp;

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US Soybean Meal Futures Hit New Contract Highs on Rising Soymeal Demand

Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing vast destruction and human suffering in Ukraine. It is also reverberating through global food supply chains by disrupting shipments of Black Sea wheat, vegetable oils, corn, barley, and fertilizers.<ul><li>Agricultural commodity prices have surged in volatile trading</li><li>Import-reliant countries are scrambling for alternative supplies</li><li>Energy prices have jumped, with crude oil topping $100 a barrel&nbsp;</li></ul>In this Gro Strategic Assessment, we quantify the impact the Russia-Ukraine war is having on global inventories of agricultural commodities. We also evaluate how much other world regions are able to increase their exports to help fill the supply shortfalls created by the war. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Strategic Assessment here</a>.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks

Food price inflation is at its highest level in a decade. Successive years of poor growing conditions across several key commodities, coupled with strong demand, have pulled down agricultural product inventories worldwide to their tightest levels in years and driven prices higher. As many nations’ economies continue to recover from COVID-19, and issues ranging from labor shortages to intense drought emerge, the current period of high prices could be with us well into 2022 and beyond.&nbsp;One of the strongest signals for continued food inflation is a second consecutive year of drought in agricultural powerhouse South America, brought on by the return of the La Niña weather event. Big producers Brazil and Argentina are headed for smaller harvests of major crops, especially corn, soybeans, and sugar, Gro’s machine-learning models show. Even a robust US harvest from the upcoming season won’t be able to make up for the depth of South America’s current crop troubles.As a result, global supplies of many commodities will remain tight, and food prices, already soaring in most parts of the world, will remain elevated through yet another global crop cycle.Background&nbsp;A broad acceleration of food price inflation in the US has been underway since May 2020, around the beginning of the COVID lockdowns. Gro’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGLM2DqZ">US Food Price Index</a>, which reflects prices based on consumption of a wide range of food items, is up 30% from this time last year.&nbsp;<ul><li>The index’s increase signals a continuation of intense inflationary pressure on basic food necessities such as proteins and grains used in making a wide variety of packaged food products.&nbsp;</li><li>Rising US food prices have global impact, given the outsize role of the US in worldwide food and agricultural markets.&nbsp;</li><li>The <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-ag-price-index">Gro US Food Price Index</a> updates daily and provides an inflation estimate for the current month, which is up to six weeks ahead of when official US government data becomes available.&nbsp;</li></ul>The biggest drivers of US food price inflation are meat and poultry.&nbsp;<ul><li>Wholesale <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vq6131NdW">US beef prices</a> rose 25% in 2021 from the previous year, while <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDvQmzdV">poultry prices</a> doubled, putting sharp upward pressure on retail prices as well.&nbsp;</li><li>Since late December 2021, US pork cold storage levels fell to 21% below five-year average levels. As boneless hams require more labor to remove the bone, they were in even <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeWwVZ9L">tighter supply.</a>&nbsp;</li></ul>Robust consumer demand as economies pick up steam is driving protein prices higher, while labor shortages have restricted protein processor production.&nbsp;<ul><li>Sharply higher animal feed costs have also pushed up protein prices.&nbsp;</li><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kqzK7blRW">Corn futures</a> prices are up 5.5% so far in 2022, and up 35% year over year. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR80VG8Re">Soybean prices</a> have risen even more, gaining 17% so far in 2022 and 38% compared with last year.&nbsp;</li><li>Droughts in Brazil, Canada, and the US, along with unprecedented demand from China, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/o9vPWnKqb">tightened global supplies</a> of grains and oilseeds used in animal feed.&nbsp;</li></ul><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJpoBodV">Milk prices</a> are up 31% year over year, also due to higher feed costs.<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.58%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416385/new-website/image1_738b8a06c2.jpg"><figcaption>Wholesale chicken breast prices have soared amid lower supplies and rising feed costs, contributing to a 30% year-over-year jump in Gro’s US Food Price Index.</figcaption></figure>Higher Prices WorldwideVegetable oils are one of the most common commodities around the world, used widely in cooking and as ingredients in nearly every packaged food product. But as global <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1QMmKqW">vegetable oil supplies </a>tighten, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBojk9b">prices have risen</a> substantially for more than a year, hitting profit margins of packaged food manufacturers.&nbsp;<ul><li>Gro’s VegOil Feedstock Price Index, which tracks price changes in various edible oils, is up 41.8% in January from a year earlier.&nbsp;</li><li>The index is part of Gro’s newly launched <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/custom-price-indices">Custom Price Indices application</a>, which enables food manufacturers to create price indices of key ingredients, using customer-selected inputs and weights, and track inflationary pressures.</li></ul>Potato prices in the US are up 20% year over year, amid declining production and supply chain disruptions around the world.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-potato-production-decline-deepens-global-supply-shortage">US potato production</a> in 2021 was 7% below the five-year average as severe drought in several states resulted in the worst potato yields in years. The No. 1 producing state, Idaho, saw yields drop 9%.</li><li>Port disruptions and weak harvests created french fry shortages in markets from Japan to Kenya.</li><li>North American potato trade flows were curtailed after a potato wart outbreak prompted an export ban from Prince Edward Island, Canada’s largest potato producing province.</li></ul>Food inflation has taken hold worldwide, with year-over-year prices up 8% in Canada and 5% in Brazil, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1QB6vqW">Gro’s Food Price Indices for those countries</a>.&nbsp;<ul><li>Gro’s Brazil Food Price Index is close to its highest level ever, and is up 63% since the first set of COVID-related lockdowns in Brazil in May 2020.&nbsp;</li><li>Food price increases in Brazil have been exacerbated by the depreciation of the Real, which is down 15% over the past two years.</li></ul>Rising prices have prompted some countries to restrict commodity exports in order to maintain domestic supplies and quell food price inflation.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/indonesia-s-palm-oil-export-curbs-will-squeeze-global-supplies">Indonesia</a>, the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, announced curbs on palm oil exports.&nbsp;</li><li>Other countries, including <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/russia-ramps-up-wheat-export-restrictions">Russia</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/argentina-to-cap-corn-and-wheat-exports-amid-forecast-for-record-crops">Argentina</a>, have restricted grain exports.&nbsp;</li><li>Such measures could further tighten global supplies and create additional upward pressure for food prices.</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:74.72%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416608/new-website/image3_2e19cb459e.jpg"><figcaption>Tightening global supplies of vegetable oils, one of the most widely used commodities, have pushed prices sharply higher, hitting profit margins of packaged food manufacturers.&nbsp; Gro’s VegOil Feedstock Price Index, which tracks price changes in various edible oils, is up 41.8% in January from a year earlier.</figcaption></figure>Headed Into 2022: South America Drives Global MarketsBig agricultural producers Brazil and Argentina are headed for smaller harvests of major crops, especially corn, soybeans, and sugar, Gro’s machine-learning models show.&nbsp;<ul><li>The result will be a continuation of tight global supplies for many commodities.&nbsp;</li><li>Food prices, already soaring in most parts of the world, will remain elevated through yet another global crop cycle.&nbsp;</li><li>Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter. It is also the No. 1 producer and exporter of sugar and Arabica coffee.</li><li>Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal as well as a major supplier of corn to world markets.&nbsp;</li></ul>A return of the La Niña global climate event is bringing another year of drought to key growing regions in Argentina and southern Brazil.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAxMrgd4">Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a> currently indicates a sizable production decline.&nbsp;</li><li>Gro’s yield forecast models for <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0XbrqK">Argentina corn</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NB6aD9b">soybeans</a> currently show both crops will be down by double-digit percentages year over year.</li><li>Gro’s forecasts for South America are based on our extensive platform of data analytics, indices, and machine-learning models that have proved to be more reliable than government estimates and are available weeks or months earlier than official reports.</li></ul>Gro’s new Strategic Assessment, “<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/south-america-outlook-2022">2022: The Year South America Drives Global Agricultural Markets</a>,” which is available for download, offers an in-depth look at the current South American season’s prospects. &nbsp;<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.04%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416573/new-website/image2_5f2440a6b3.jpg"><figcaption>A second consecutive year of drought in southern Brazil is depressing yields and production forecasts for the country’s big soybean crop, as shown via the Gro Drought Index. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans.</figcaption></figure>ConclusionYears of major agricultural product inventory reductions coupled with strong demand have led to rising food inflation worldwide. An expected shortfall in South American production this season could exacerbate global supply shortages, prolonging inflationary pressures for food well into the new year.&nbsp;US farmers can be expected to increase their total planted acreage of corn and soybeans, despite sharply elevated fertilizer prices, as crop shortfalls in South America prolong high commodity prices. But even a strong US harvest later this year won’t be sufficient to offset the damage already done to South American crops due to drought, Gro’s models show.&nbsp;The result will be a continuation of tight global supplies for many commodities and persistent food price inflation through yet another global crop cycle. Additional increases in food prices in 2022 will hit consumers and further squeeze profit margins for food manufacturing and merchandising companies worldwide.

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A Look at Rising Food Inflation

Agricultural powerhouse South America will have a greater-than-normal impact on global markets in 2022, a <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/south-america-outlook-2022">new Gro Strategic Assessment</a> concludes.&nbsp;&nbsp;

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2022: The Year South America Drives Global Agricultural Markets

The US corn crop is in its critical pollination stage, and hot and dry conditions are weighing on yields. Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model is currently signaling the US will have one of the weakest corn harvests in years.&nbsp;As we continue to monitor the US corn crop, Gro Intelligence and DTN will be partnering again for a fifth annual <a href="https://spotlights.dtnpf.com/dyt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro x DTN Digital Yield Tour</a>. We will be tracking how the US corn and soybean crops are progressing so far this season.Beginning Monday, August 8th, we will bring a field-level view from the DTN team and a regional, global, and climate view from the Gro Platform to present you with comprehensive and on-the-ground reporting of national yield estimates.&nbsp;Leveraging Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast ModelThe Gro US Corn Yield Forecast Model estimates in-season yields at the county, state, and national levels daily.&nbsp;Our model uses spatially explicit weather, vegetative health, and soil data to monitor environmental and crop conditions during the growing season. The model updates daily to continuously forecast final yield and help you better understand the effect of climate on crop yield and production.&nbsp;With Gro’s Yield Forecast Models, teams across industries can:&nbsp;<ul><li>Gauge crop availability and crop prices&nbsp;</li><li>Understand how weather impacts yields locally, regionally, and nationally</li><li>Inform other models focused on damage caused by pests and diseases&nbsp;</li><li>Monitor crop production, by tracking its most variable component, which is in-season yield</li><li>Make early forecasts of end-of-season yield in the US and across the Corn Belt, which produces 80%-85% of national corn</li></ul>Like all Gro models, the industry-leading US Corn Yield Forecast Model is built by our team of data scientists, agronomists, and industry experts. It is continually updated throughout the growing season, accurately providing the latest yield forecast weeks ahead of USDA estimates.Read more about the Yield Forecast Model <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-yield-model">here</a> or schedule a demonstration to learn how our Yield Model can be tailored to your organization’s needs <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo">here</a>.

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Leveraging Gro’s Yield Forecast Models for the Gro x DTN 2022 Digital Yield Tour

We are living in volatile times — and both food security and climate change are at the center of it. It has never been more urgent for our systems and institutions to become more resilient so that we can address these challenges.&nbsp;Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, spoke with former US Treasury Secretary and Chairman of the Paulson Institute Hank Paulson on his podcast, Straight Talk, to discuss agricultural markets and food security as well as the impacts of climate change. They also spoke about how Gro is leveraging our platform to help financial institutions, companies, and public institutions measure and manage climate risk across various assets and asset classes.&nbsp;Listen to the full recording of their conversation on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCtT_D_cPmk">YouTube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0m2j0Kr3LiDc9Yj9ypThJM">Spotify</a>, or <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-67-sara-menker/id1526872168?i=1000569806869">Apple Podcasts</a>.&nbsp;Founding the Gro Platform Across Agriculture, Climate, and the EconomyGro Intelligence began building the Gro Platform in 2014 to answer core questions facing global agricultural systems. How do you predict supply, demand, and trade, and ultimately prices of every agricultural product on Earth every day? How can data and information drive systematic change in the industry?&nbsp;“If you think about what that means, that's not just for corn or wheat or soybeans or products that are traded on exchanges, but it's also for vanilla beans and black pepper and livestock and dairy,” Menker said. “It’s the full spectrum of the agricultural system.”&nbsp;The Gro Platform aims to provide unique analytics that help organizations understand the complex interrelationships between supply, climate, demand, and trade — the main factors driving price. Gro ingests large, disparate datasets from governments, satellites, and private companies for regions and crops worldwide. Included among the datasets are large amounts of environmental, weather, and future climate projection data.&nbsp;Gro then standardizes this data, enabling an understanding of the global system. Using machine learning and AI, Gro has built predictive models to provide actionable insights across agriculture, climate, and the economy. We also look at the past, the present, the immediate future and the long-term future to measure climate risks in agricultural supply chains.&nbsp;“Over eight years, we built a geospatially explicit framework to measure climate risk of any physical asset anywhere on Earth,” Menker said. “Through this very robust engine, we can really start looking at how to actually expand agriculture on the climate side, so that we can measure both the immediate as well as long-term climate risks for any type of institution that's managing any set of physical assets.”Solving Challenges Across IndustriesGro mixes and matches our models for different types of decisions by financial institutions, corporates, and public institutions.Financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies use Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/platform/models">Yield Forecast Models</a>, for example, to look at insurance policies or lending rates against agricultural products. Gro’s Yield Forecast Models estimate in-season yields at the county/district, state/province, and national levels on a daily basis for a variety of crops and regions worldwide.For a CPG company, our Yield Forecast Models can be leveraged for better procurement strategies. CPG companies also use our <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/applications/land-suitability-ranking">Land Suitability Model</a>, which looks at alternative regions where land and growing conditions are suitable for a crop’s growth.&nbsp;For governmental and multilateral organizations, our Platform helps clients better understand how to manage national food security risks, Menker explained.What to Monitor in GroRussia’s February invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the pressures on our agricultural systems, given the Black Sea region’s contributions to world food supplies — especially, wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizers. Gro closely monitors the impact of the Ukraine war on commodities and has created a <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-impact-on-global-agricultural-markets">resources page here</a> to help organizations navigate the unprecedented supply chain shocks.Persistent drought in many parts of the world — from East Africa to Western Europe and the US Midwest — also has weighed on global agricultural supplies and supply chains. <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/gro-drought-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Gro Drought Index</a> and Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture constantly track growing conditions worldwide to signal when drought events are impacting crop production.&nbsp;&nbsp;“That's a real shock and one that we have to still continue to manage. And it doesn't mean that if drought goes away, it goes back to normal. Our resilience factors have to be tweaked to how we think about inventories, how we think about our supply chains, because this is here to stay,” Menker said.Beyond drought, Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture">Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> allows users to monitor growing conditions — including temperature, precipitation, as well as Gro’s indices for drought and vegetative health — highlighted for a specific crop’s planted area at the county/district, state/province, and national levels. The Navigator also can be weighted for demographic-based datasets to look at the effects of climate change on economies.&nbsp;“What always shocks me is the spatial distribution of outcomes on our platform of where the most affected regions are. The regions that are going to be most affected are the most populated regions in those countries. One of those affected areas is sub-Saharan Africa and the poverty rates are already very high,” Menker said.&nbsp;As governments, humanitarian organizations, and businesses across the agricultural supply chain try to adapt to these current realities, they need timely and transparent data from trusted sources. The Gro Platform is built to provide this data and help our customers see around the corner, enabling better, faster, and more informed decisions.Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> to speak to a member of our team or get a demonstration of our platform. &nbsp;

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Gro in Conversation With Former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson

Reduced consumption of fertilizers, driven by supply disruptions, high fertilizer prices, and broader impacts of the war in Ukraine on global trade and energy markets, are threatening global agricultural production and worsening food insecurity.Gro Intelligence’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor is the first tool to quantify the potential impact of fertilizer shortages on global crop production under different scenarios in a fully transparent way.&nbsp;Built with support from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, and in partnership with the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), an association which represents providers of plant nutrition solutions, and CRU Group (CRU), a leading independent authority on fertilizer, the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor is designed to help quantify the potential outcomes of the worldwide fertilizer crisis. It is free to anyone to use and can be found <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.In developing the Monitor, Gro modeled a total of seven different fertilizer application scenarios, based on application rate forecasts and scientific inputs from IFA and CRU Group. These include three scenarios from IFA’s recently published <a href="https://www.fertilizer.org/public/resources/publication_detail.aspx?SEQN=6198&amp;PUBKEY=C5D3054A-4F40-4FFD-8F1A-24AD36D4087D">Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook</a>; CRU Group’s application rate estimate; and three uniform global fertilizer reduction scenarios of 1%, 3%, and 5%.&nbsp;Gro modeled the projected changes in yield caused by a given change in nitrogen fertilizer application rates for a given country and crop. From yield, Gro derives a production change. We then aggregate this production change across four major crops–wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans–after converting production to calories. See more on our methodology <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/methodology">here</a>.Gro’s modeling indicates:<ul><li>IFA’s “middle ground” scenario - which factors in a partial resumption of fertilizer exports from the Black Sea region and a continued affordability squeeze - could lead to a global production loss of 53 trillion calories, equivalent to 0.60% of total global corn, wheat, rice, and soybean production.</li><li>CRU Group’s estimate points to a global production loss of 72 trillion calories, equal to 0.82% of worldwide production across these four crops.&nbsp;</li><li>IFA’s “pessimistic” scenario - which assumes an extended Russia-Ukraine conflict and continued Western sanctions, with falling affordability to farmers impacting their incentive to purchase fertilizers - results in a global production loss of 159 trillion calories, or 1.80% of total global corn, wheat, rice, and soybean production.</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:100%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1658857833/new-website/IFA_middle_ground_scenario_ecd1f1c508.png"><figcaption>In developing the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor, Gro modeled a total of seven different nitrogen fertilizer application scenarios, based on application rate forecasts and scientific inputs from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and CRU Group. The above image is a snapshot of worldwide outcomes resulting from the IFA ‘middle ground’ scenario, with darker shades representing greater declines in crop production.</figcaption></figure>While the overall global impact of reduced nitrogen fertilizer applications is less severe than estimates by other sources had feared, the effects are not distributed equally. Production in some parts of the world will be hit harder as a result of fertilizer shortages than other regions.&nbsp;<ul><li>For Africa, removing what little fertilizer is traditionally applied has a disproportionate effect on crop production, resulting in food shortfalls that are being compounded by current drought levels.&nbsp;</li><li>In Kenya, for example, reduced fertilizer use could decrease crop production between 2.32% and 6.22%, depending on a range of the current most likely scenarios for how prolonged the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be and the availability and price of nitrogen-based fertilizers.&nbsp;</li><li>Other countries, such as Mexico, face a potential decline in production of between 2.78% and 4.56%, under various fertilizer scenarios. Mexico is a major corn producer, and a significant reduction in nitrogen application will negatively impact the country’s production of both corn and wheat.&nbsp;</li><li>France, Western Europe’s largest wheat producer, faces a similar situation, with tight fertilizer supplies resulting in a decline of between 2.41% and 4.66% in wheat production, depending on the scenario.&nbsp;</li></ul>These scenarios are based on forecasts exclusively for nitrogen fertilizer, the most widely used fertilizer type, and do not take into account other variables such as weather conditions, which can further impact production and yield. However, Gro’s in-season Yield Forecast Models account for these variables. Go to the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/about-outputs">About Outputs</a> page within the Monitor to see the difference.&nbsp;We welcome feedback and additional data to continue to improve the Fertilizer Impact Monitor and build on the work that we have done. Visit the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.Please reach out to <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> with any questions or to learn more about our platform.

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Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor: What Does the Data Tell Us?

Earlier this month, Gro’s SVP of Agribusiness, Jim Heneghan, joined a group of global agricultural experts and leaders at AgFunder and Intellias’ roundtable discussion on LinkedIn LIVE. Alongside Julia Poroshenko of Agrohub, Dmytro Lennyi of Intellias, Himanshu Gupta of ClimateAI, Dr. Simi Thambi of FAIRR, and Maryna Kuzmenko of Petiole, Heneghan spoke about building a resilient agricultural industry amid geopolitical conflict and changing climate conditions.<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtZoi5aHawE">Watch the full recording of the roundtable here</a>.Russia-Ukraine war adding fuel to the fireThe Russia-Ukraine war has driven extraordinary additional supply disruptions during a time of already highly uncertain and volatile global agricultural markets. Since 2020, the world has faced COVID-19 related labor shortages, droughts, and rising food and fertilizer prices.Russia and Ukraine used to provide nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports and are in the top five exporters of corn globally. Combined, they used to export 75% of global sunflower oil supplies. Now, all Ukrainian ports remain closed, blocking traditional grain movements and cutting off key grain supplies. Russian exports, which also include fertilizer, are limited because of Black Sea maritime hazards.The resulting food and hunger crisis calls for immediate global action.“It’s one of the most extreme, if not the most extreme [situations] I’ve seen in my career,” said Heneghan.&nbsp;An unprecedented confluence of contributing factorsSeveral major factors are contributing to the current food crisis. Fertilizer shortages, climate disruptions, record low inventories of key commodities, and logistical bottlenecks are occurring simultaneously and have already started to unravel decades of global economic progress. Data shows the food security challenges we face will last several years, as Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, noted in her briefing to the United Nations Security Council last month.&nbsp;“The confluence of successive droughts, successive supply [chain] shocks, now a war, now fertilizer reduction in areas that produce the most and feed the world,” Heneghan said. “Stakeholders in the world need to be fully on this because it’s nothing like we’ve seen before.”“I think there are some glimmers of hope,” Heneghan added. “La Nina breaking to some degree, US crops getting in the ground…there are some areas of better prospects. But we’re already coming off multi-year problems in the global supply of these products.”Building a resilient ag industry with comprehensive global dataData fills coverage gaps and connects seemingly disconnected issues, clarifying the path forward. During times of war or increasingly volatile climate conditions, deeper visibility and wider knowledge are vital to strategic planning. Access to trusted data helps governments, humanitarian organizations, and companies worldwide fully understand food security related risks and outcomes and identify the countries most at risk for food insecurity.&nbsp;“When we had a surge in global food prices and we had issues in 2007 and 2008 - wheat, rice, globally - and even Arab Spring times in ‘11 and ‘12, the difference versus today is we’re onto the problems and situations and running the calculations so much better than we did back then,” Heneghan said. “So stakeholders recognize the magnitude of the problem much better now than they did a decade or more ago.”While we live in an increasingly fragile, interconnected global food system, with accurate information and coordinated global effort, it is possible to build a healthy global economy and secure food system.“Through technology, the answer can’t be ‘I didn’t know about it.’ Yes you can get the transparency on it through what we’re doing and what others here on this panel have done,” Heneghan said. “That speed to solution will be so much more beneficial on top of things, and you can avert big problems that might have occurred.”&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtZoi5aHawE">Watch the full recording of the roundtable here</a>.See how the Gro platform can help your team navigate these pressing challenges by <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/contact">reaching out to us here</a>.As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all. With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool that shows the supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for 49 African countries. Visit the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa">Food Security Tracker for Africa here</a>.

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Gro's Jim Heneghan at AgFunder Roundtable

At the United Nations Security Council’s May 19 session on conflict and global food security, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, spoke about the growing global food crisis, the confluence of unprecedented factors contributing to this crisis, and its disproportionate impact on lower-income countries.Watch the livestream <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k10/k10mjpv1u3?kalturaStartTime=2120" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.Sara Menker: It is an honor to be here today to highlight and reaffirm that food security is, in fact, national security and global stability.&nbsp;Before I share some data-driven insights on the state of our global food systems, let me tell you a little bit about Gro Intelligence. Gro is a company founded to help tackle two of the greatest challenges we face as humanity: food security and climate change. We are a global company with offices in Nairobi, Singapore, and New York. Our team comes from over 40 countries that range from Ethiopia, where I am from, to Russia, Nigeria, India, the United States, China and Ukraine. We are a company of domain experts in software infrastructure, climate science, agronomy, trading, and financial markets. We combine that with world-class engineering and AI talent. We work with large and small companies. We work with financial institutions, and we work with multiple governments.I come here today to share insights from our data, with the underlying hope that all of us here with the power to change the course of history will choose to do so.&nbsp;I want to start by explicitly saying that the Russia-Ukraine war did not start the food security crisis. It simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning. A crisis we detected tremors from long before the COVID 19 pandemic exposed the fragility of our supply chains.&nbsp;I share this because we believe it's important for you all to understand that even if the war were to end tomorrow, our food security problem isn't going away anytime soon without concerted action.&nbsp;Now on to the statistics: Gro Intelligence estimates show that price increases in major food crops year to date has made an additional 400 million people food insecure. There are a few food security statistics shared so I want to define this as the number of people at $3.59 a day. To put this into perspective, that is equivalent to the number of people that China has taken out of poverty in the last 20 years. In five months, we have undone 20 years of progress.&nbsp;Furthermore, our economic shock models show that year to date changes in prices of agricultural products have already affected some economies by three to 5% of their GDP. Countries disproportionately affected are in regions such as North Africa, the Middle East, the Horn of Africa and West and Central Asia.&nbsp;And it can get much worse. Data shows the food security challenges we face will last several years.&nbsp;There are five major challenges occurring simultaneously that are each individually extraordinary. Lack of fertilizer, climate disruptions, record low inventories in cooking oils, record low inventories of grains, and logistical bottlenecks that have already started to unravel decades of global economic progress.&nbsp;Without substantial immediate and aggressive coordinated global actions, we stand the risk of an extraordinary amount of both human suffering and economic damage. This isn’t cyclical, this is seismic. It’s a once in a generation occurrence that can dramatically reshape the geopolitical era.FertilizersGlobal fertilizer prices have nearly tripled year on year and quadrupled over the past two years because of supply shocks driven by logistical bottlenecks, restrictions on natural gas which impact the ability to produce fertilizer, and sanctions and export restrictions amidst the Russia Ukraine war. This risks significant crop yield reductions in key producing regions, such as Brazil, the United States, and Western Europe later this year and next year, severely impacting global food security and inflation for the next three to five years at a minimum.ClimateGlobal drought conditions for wheat are the worst in over 20 years around the world. Major bread baskets such as the United States and Brazil, the world's two largest exporters of agricultural products, are also experiencing extreme droughts. For example, Brazil’s cropland soil moisture is at a 20 year low. Major grain importers in the Middle East and Africa are also experiencing record droughts. Namely, we have both major importers and major exporters experiencing exceptional drought conditions.Cooking OilsThe price of traditionally cheap palm oil has nearly tripled in the last two years. Driven by increased biofuels demand, drought in regions that produce alternative cooking oils such as Brazil and Canada, record import demand from China and the loss of nearly 75% of global sunflower oil exports due to the Russia Ukraine war. The recent export ban in Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, who is responsible for 60% of global production has added significant upward price pressure to vegetable oils.GrainsOfficial government agency estimates from around the world put wheat inventories at 33% of annual consumption. Verifiable data from public and private sources that we as a company organize and then build statistical models to connect the dots between in our platform show that global wheat inventories are in fact closer to 20%, a level not seen since the financial and commodity crisis of 2007 and 2008. We currently only have 10 weeks of global consumption sitting in inventory around the world. Conditions today are worse than those experienced in 2007 and 2008. &nbsp;It is important to note that the lowest grain inventory levels the world has ever seen are now occurring while access to fertilizers is highly constrained, and drought in wheat growing regions around the world is the most extreme it’s been in over 20 years. Similar inventory concerns also apply to corn and other grains. Government estimates are not adding up.LogisticsRussia and Ukraine used to provide nearly a third of the world's wheat exports and are in the top five exporters of corn globally. Combined, they used to export 75% of global sunflower oil supplies. All Ukrainian ports remain closed, making it impossible to move any of Ukraine's harvested grain across its borders. Shifting to rail will move less than 10% of the prewar flow. It's not enough. Russian exports, which also include fertilizer, are limited because of Black Sea maritime hazards.Any one of the five things I outlined would be considered a major issue in commodity markets. The five combined are truly unprecedented.&nbsp;I come here today not to specifically offer or provide solutions, as there will be other venues to do so. But rather to X-ray and diagnose the problem for those of you in this room that have the power to change the course of our history. In a world that is increasingly isolationist, we need to come together. Food is personal. But our agricultural systems are global.&nbsp;There is no version of the world where every country has all the natural resources it needs to survive and thrive. One key takeaway from our data is how often we see repeated examples of cause and effect, highlighting surprising connections and interdependencies. For example, in the United States, the most self-sufficient country globally, a consumption-weighted basket of food - a grocery basket - has doubled in price since April of 2020. Price increases were driven by unprecedented demand around the world, which increased alongside climate related supply side shocks. We cannot solve food insecurity on a national scale anywhere.&nbsp;One thing we strongly believe is we can have a healthy economy and secure food system without degrading our environment. We have the capability to help everyone feel secure about having enough food. Data helps us navigate because we aren't blind to food security related risks and outcomes. We can't say we didn't know.There are positive solutions and approaches that can be offered and delivered but they will require coordinated global effort. We are all dependent on one another.What does the data tell us about risk and interdependencies? It tells us not unlike the global financial crisis of 2008 there are fault lines and tremor-like early warning signals that are seemingly disconnected globally, but they aren't.&nbsp;What does the data tell us about hope? It tells us that while the next few years are going to likely be difficult as a result of this statistically unusual confluence of the five challenges I shared, we can coordinate a global response, eschew a ‘to each their own mentality’ as to food security and climate risk, be willing to have constructive, albeit difficult, conversations, and jointly accept that what we have to address is less of a food shortage and more of a crisis of prioritization. As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all. With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool that shows the supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for 49 African countries. Visit the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Food Security Tracker for Africa here</a>.

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Gro's CEO, Sara Menker, Briefs the United Nations Security Council: Conflict and Global Food Security

During the United Nations Security Council’s May 19 session on Conflict and Global Food Security, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, spoke about the growing global food crisis, the confluence of unprecedented factors contributing to this crisis, and its disproportionate impact on lower-income countries. Watch the livestream <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k10/k10mjpv1u3?kalturaStartTime=2120" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all.&nbsp;With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool on key agricultural commodities for 49 African countries. The tool aims to create data transparency for countries where this has previously been lacking, in light of the unprecedented challenges connected to the current global food crisis.&nbsp;Understanding the impact of the global food crisis&nbsp;Environmental, economic, and political shocks are driving rapidly rising food prices and limiting access to major crop staples. The resulting crisis has had a disproportionate impact on lower-income countries. In a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/opinion/ukraine-war-food-crisis.html?partner=slack&amp;smid=sl-share">recent op-ed for The New York Times</a>, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, and Dr. Rajiv Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, showed how rising wheat prices have caused the price of bread, an essential staple, to roughly double in Sudan.Understanding the supply and demand of major crops – corn, soy, wheat, and rice – across Africa on a real-time basis helps acknowledge the full impact of this crisis. Supply and demand balance sheets, which incorporate monthly historical and forecasted supply and demand of major crops, transform all of the forces that drive a commodity’s price into an actionable end-of-year supply number. These “ending stocks” estimates for a commodity help forecast price and identify future areas of risk.&nbsp;Currently, this data is not easily accessible in one location, leaving a large gap in the coverage of supply and demand for principal food crops in Africa. As a result, companies across the global agricultural supply chain face a major blind spot. Donors are unable to accurately direct funds. And governments lack essential knowledge as they scramble for alternative sources of supply amid the current global food crisis.&nbsp;“By combining cutting-edge technology and humanitarian relief efforts and leveraging the private sector for public use, our collaboration with The Rockefeller Foundation will help strengthen food security initiatives, address inequities, and build a sustainable world for all,” said Ms. Menker. “With this new tool, governments, companies, and humanitarian organizations will be better equipped to anticipate food shortages, direct relief, and improve strategic planning in response to the unprecedented level of supply and demand shocks that have caused global food insecurity.”&nbsp;&nbsp;By combining data on drought, crop conditions, prices, supply and demand all in one place, users will be able to develop more effective solutions and emergency response plans to the growing shortages of key agricultural commodities across the continent.Leveraging the power of the Gro platform“To create a more comprehensive picture, the Gro team, which includes both domain experts and technologists, leveraged our platform and the scaling power of our machine-learning models to quickly and accurately provide needed data,” said Will Osnato, Senior Research Analyst at Gro Intelligence. “With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, we will offer agricultural balance sheets that denote supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for the next year. In addition, the tool has been tested and reviewed by our analyst team and methodologies are made available to fully encompass the transparency and objectivity of our platform.”Alongside real-time supply and demand balance sheets, Gro’s Food Security Tracker for Africa makes key metrics for 49 African countries publicly available for the first time, including:<ul><li>Gro’s Production Forecast – Production estimates are calculated using Gro’s machine learning-based yield forecasts, which incorporate real-time environmental data and historical production data to predict supply.</li><li>Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/stocks-to-use-vs-price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Stocks-to-Use Ratio</a> – A country’s reserves of a specific crop is an indicator of food security. A stocks-to-use ratio shows the relationship between stocks and usage.&nbsp; Gro’s Stocks-to-Use Ratio is calculated as total food calorie stocks at the end of the marketing year – a period of one year designated by the growing season of a specific commodity. This number is then divided by total food calorie demand (domestic consumption + exports) across each of the four crops in the selected region.&nbsp;</li><li>Cropland-Weighted <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/gro-drought-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Drought Index</a> (GDI) – The proprietary Gro Drought Index is the world’s first high resolution global agricultural drought index. The GDI measures drought severity on a scale from “0” (no drought) to “5” (exceptional drought). The index is global, offering data on the continent, country, state, and district level. The values shown on the tool are weighted by cropland area at the district level for each country.&nbsp;</li><li>Crop-Area Weighted Vegetative Health Index (NDVI) – NDVI is a key satellite-based indicator of plant health, used to forecast crop production, supply, and price. Lower NDVI signals lower levels of production, suggesting higher risks of food insecurity.</li><li>Prices – Price series were selected based on Free-on-board (FOB) export prices from the largest import supplier for the selected country. If the country is not a significant importer, then representative global prices were selected.</li></ul>About this partnership&nbsp;Gro Intelligence’s partnership with The Rockefeller Foundation represents a unique opportunity for the advantages of cutting-edge technology to advance humanitarian relief programs. When the private sector is leveraged for the public sector, it can help food security initiatives, address inequities, and build a sustainable world for all.&nbsp;&nbsp;About Gro Intelligence&nbsp;Gro Intelligence works with companies, financial institutions, humanitarian organizations, and governments on forecasting risks to food security that may result in food or hunger crises.&nbsp;&nbsp;Our food security platform serves as a single source of truth and an early warning hub that provides up-to-date information, insights, and analysis across the value chain. The platform predicts future trends and promotes proactive, evidence-based decision making to guarantee the food security of our partners.See more on our work with the public sector <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/agriculture/public-sector-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.For more information visit the Food Security Tracker for Africa <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a> or contact us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a>.

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New Agricultural Data Tool Can Help Fight the Growing Food Crisis in Africa

As part of our continued effort to help organizations tackle the growing effects of climate change, Gro has joined the stakeholder Forum of the <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure (TNFD)</a>, a market-led initiative aimed at developing a risk management and disclosure framework to help organizations manage and report on nature-related risks.As a TNFD Forum member, Gro will be working alongside 400 other organizations to help financial institutions and companies assess nature-related risks and opportunities and incorporate these assessments into their long-term strategies and risk planning.Leveraging the Gro platform to manage climate change impactsAccording to the World Economic Forum (WEF) report, published in collaboration with PwC, over half the world’s total GDP is dependent on nature and its services, and the three largest nature-dependent industries are construction, agriculture, and food and beverage.Under all climate change scenarios shown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these industries will increasingly face significant risk of physical climate impact in coming years. To manage that risk, companies must first measure it.&nbsp;Gro works directly with companies in both the agricultural and the food and beverage industries to help form a clearer picture of the effect that extreme weather volatility is having, and will continue to have, on the places and ecosystems that they care most about. Our customizable models and applications, such as our Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, leverage real-time data and long-term climate indicators to accurately measure and assess climate risk.&nbsp;"If we have these persistent shocks that are occurring from a climate standpoint, it doesn't mean we can't manage them. It just better mean that we know how to measure them consistently and for the whole world and every day,” Gro Intelligence's CEO, Sara Menker, said recently at the 2022 World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit.About The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial DisclosuresThe potential social and economic effects of climate change are staggering, but through its work&nbsp; the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure is supporting a shift to nature-positive outcomes by helping organizations manage nature-related risks and recognize that nature can also be used to reduce climate risk and deal with the causes of climate change.The TNFD aims to release a framework for reporting and managing nature-related risks by Q3 2023.&nbsp;Please reach out to us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> to schedule a conversation with our team and learn more about our work with the TNFD.

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Gro Intelligence Joins The Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosure Forum

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