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US acres planted to soybeans tumbled compared with the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report, after the season got off to a slow start due to cold, wet weather in the northern Plains.&nbsp;The 2.7-million-soybean-acreage decline, reported in the USDA June Acreage report, places additional pressure for ideal weather in July and August in order to keep supplies from falling sharply, particularly as the Corn Belt continues to labor under hot and dry conditions, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/hot-and-dry-weather-tees-up-a-tense-july-in-the-us-corn-belt">here</a>.&nbsp;Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture shows that soil moisture levels, weighted for areas planted to soybeans, are at some of the lowest levels in more than a decade. View the Climate Risk Navigator display <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Soybeans%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States">here</a>.&nbsp;Farmers planted 88.3 million acres of soybeans. While that is an increase from last year, and is the highest number of soybean acres since 2018, it represents a drop of 2.7 million acres, or nearly 3%, from the March planting intentions report. The decrease in acreage comes despite sky-high fertilizer prices, which have encouraged many farmers to steer clear of corn in favor of less-fertilizer-intensive crops, such as soybeans. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdPP37Ld5">Fertilizer prices</a> have about doubled in the past year and are up threefold over two years.&nbsp;Also favoring US soybeans have been smaller crops in Brazil and Argentina, due to La Niña-induced drought, and enthusiasm over rapidly growing investments into renewable diesel, which uses mainly soybean oil as feedstock.&nbsp;Farmers planted 89.9 million acres of corn, the USDA survey showed. While that is down nearly 4% from last year, it represents a small increase from the March Prospective Plantings number.&nbsp;The US corn crop also is facing risks, as it heads into the critical pollination phase. Soil moisture levels for acres planted to corn are close to decade lows, as shown by <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Corn%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>.&nbsp;Soybean stocks jumped 26% as of June 1 from a year earlier — still the second-lowest stocks level as of that date in five years — as shown by the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report. Corn stocks, although up nearly 6% from a year earlier, were at the second-lowest level in eight years.&nbsp;After an initial post-report bounce, both corn and soybean prices finished Thursday lower amid a broader energy and equity markets sell-off. November soybeans closed down 1.4%, while December corn ended 5.2% lower.&nbsp;Spring wheat acreage is the lowest since 2017. Planting pace was among the slowest on record as cold soil temperatures and excessive moisture in the northern Plains kept many farmers out of their fields.&nbsp;Because of the early season planting delays, the USDA said it will collect additional survey data in July for North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota for any updates on acreage. The USDA last did a July update to its Acreage Report in 2020, another year that got off to a slow start due to overly wet conditions.&nbsp;What to Watch Next:&nbsp;Monitor the progress of US crops using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, with displays for <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Corn%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">corn</a> and <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Soybeans%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybeans</a>.Follow Gro’s machine learning-based Yield Forecast Models for <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdP3v8395" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">corn</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/B2da7KVRn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybeans</a>. The models, which update daily, continuously forecast final yields using spatially explicit weather, vegetative health, and soil data to monitor environmental and crop conditions during the growing season.&nbsp;&nbsp;

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US Acres Planted to Soybeans Tumble, Raising Supply Concerns

Australia’s canola crop looks set to boost global vegetable oil supplies this season, as a big jump in planted area and favorable growing conditions point to a new record for Australian canola production.&nbsp;An increase in Australian production would be good news for international buyers, since Canada, the world’s biggest canola producer, is headed for a smaller harvest due to a decrease in planted acres, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/soggy-spring-could-put-already-reduced-canola-acres-at-greater-risk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>. Australia exports the bulk of its canola, mainly to the EU for use in biodiesel production with the remainder going to food producers in Asia and the Middle East.&nbsp;Gro’s vegetative health index for Australian canola is at one of the highest levels in more than 20 years, largely a result of a cool and wet start to the season that has aided soil moisture and crop growth. Based on the crop’s current performance, canola production could surpass <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkBMZxqQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">last year’s record</a> of 6.5 million tonnes.&nbsp;The vegetative health index, known as NDVI, is a satellite-derived measure of plant health and greenness that serves as a real-time signal detecting changes in crop conditions. Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture is able to chart NDVI values worldwide weighted for acres planted to specific crops such as canola, as can be viewed <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1013,Australia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Canola%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:13,Oceania:1013,Australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1656535854/new-website/Australian_Canola_Crop_Vegetative_Health_Index_c6c9bae613.png"><figcaption>Australia’s canola crop is at one of its highest levels in more than 20 years on Gro’s vegetative health index, as shown by the red line on this chart from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture.</figcaption></figure>Gro predicts Australia’s statistics agency ABARES will need to increase its current production forecast to reflect the crop’s positive outlook.&nbsp;&nbsp;Canola is Australia's <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxoDxB92" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">third-largest crop</a>, after wheat and barley. The country’s canola production has jumped nearly three-fold since 2000 as acres have expanded and yields have improved. In 2022/23, Australian canola farmers are expected to harvest a record 3.4 million hectares, up 12% from last year as high canola prices edged out acres planted to barley and oats.&nbsp;Australia is the world’s No. 5 producer of rapeseed, which is known as canola in its genetically modified form. The Australian crop is harvested in November and December.&nbsp;Canola futures surged 59% in 2021 as soaring demand for vegetable oils amid lower supply sparked a global oilseed price rally. Top producer <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVMjzZ9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Canada</a> suffered a 35% drop in its crop last year as unrelenting hot and dry weather engulfed the Prairie region. So far in 2022, November canola futures are up 16% despite a recent global market sell-off sparked by price declines for palm oil.&nbsp;&nbsp;-Related Resources&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1013,Australia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Canola%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:13,Oceania:1013,Australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Vegetative health index, weighted for acres planted to canola in Australia using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/soggy-spring-could-put-already-reduced-canola-acres-at-greater-risk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Soggy Spring Could Put Already-Reduced Canola Acres At Greater Risk</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/wet-spring-to-pinch-us-soybean-production-gro-model-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wet Spring to Pinch US Soybean Production, Gro Model Predicts</a>&nbsp; &nbsp;

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Australia to Produce a Second Record Canola Crop, Gro Predicts

The tug-of-war between lack of cotton supply and slowing cotton demand, due to global recession fears and Texas’ drought, is setting global cotton prices up for a turbulent summer trading season.&nbsp;On Friday, ICE July cotton futures gave back 21% as positions were liquidated out of the nearby July futures ahead of first notice day, and on Monday <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kR0LMyoRz">contracts</a> posted further losses, with the curve closing limit down. But the global recession fears that drove this sharp drop are at odds with supply loss expectations out of the US.&nbsp;The US ranks as the third largest cotton producer globally, and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vq61AN4dW">Texas</a> is the US’ largest cotton-producing state.&nbsp;Texas cotton-growing areas continue to experience “severe” levels of drought, according to <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/13094,Texas$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Cotton%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States:13094,Texas">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, which can weight drought readings and other growing conditions by specific crops. Soil moisture levels in cotton growing areas of Texas are at their lowest levels since at least 2010, and little rain is in the near-term forecast. This will have an outsized impact on abandoned acres when <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/bR7EoDjdN">Texas harvests</a> its cotton crop in September.&nbsp;For the week ending June 26, Texas was rated 17% good-excellent, the lowest reading in at least five years. Generally, for the US cotton crop, only 37% of the US cotton crop was rated in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1Z71oRW">good-excellent condition</a>, off 3 points versus the previous week.&nbsp;While a drop in Texas cotton production would have far-reaching effects on global cotton supplies because the US is the largest exporter of cotton worldwide, a global recession could weigh heavily on export demand. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmP68J97">Net export sales</a> for the week ended June 16 were a new marketing year low of 16,200 running bales.&nbsp;The <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6Rw1o32dW">US exports</a> almost half of its cotton to China, where continued lockdowns are fanning uncertainty. Additionally, economic setbacks could curb world consumption projections for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing year, and market participants are worried that inflation will constrain consumer spending on textiles. Exports make up the majority of the US balance sheet demand category.&nbsp;Meanwhile, across West Texas this July, drought pressure and heightened levels of abandonment, as Gro forecasted <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/abandoned-us-cotton-acres-will-soar-this-summer-gro-predicts">here</a>, will weigh negatively on supply, even though Texas saw a 7% increase in planted cotton acres, as reflected in the March Prospective Plantings.&nbsp;In India, the world’s second largest cotton producer and third largest cotton exporter, <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1094,India$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Cotton%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1094,India">accumulated rainfall</a> for the month of June is well behind average for the cotton-weighted area. It is still early in India’s growing season, but a previous <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/india-cotton-production-at-risk-due-to-weak-monsoon">Gro analysis</a> found that the success of the crop is correlated with rainfall accumulation during the June through September monsoon period.&nbsp;-Related Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/abandoned-us-cotton-acres-will-soar-this-summer-gro-predicts">Abandoned US Cotton Acres Will Soar This Summer, Gro Predicts&nbsp;</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/cotton-prices-reach-10-year-high-as-drought-hits-us-crop">Cotton Prices Reach 10-Year High as Drought Hits US Crop&nbsp;</a>

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Expect Turbulent Cotton Prices this Summer 

The 2022 USDA acreage report marks only the second time in history that US farmers will plant more soybeans than corn. In a tight corn market facing supply disruptions due to drought conditions in South America and the war in Ukraine, US corn production will be critical to ensure quality global supply.&nbsp;Join us Thursday, August 4, 10-11 AM EST for our highly regarded 2022 US Corn &amp; Soy Outlook webinar. In this webinar, Gro Intelligence’s Research Analysts will present Gro’s yield model forecasts for corn and soy ahead of the USDA’s first surveyed yields estimates for the year. We will also consider the long-term global impact and expectations for the upcoming South American growing season.

2022 US Corn & Soy Outlook and the Long-Term Global Impact

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Will has been a research analyst in agricultural commodities for over a decade. Before joining Gro, he was a strategist at Balyasny Asset Management with a focus on oilseeds. Prior to that, he worked at Yannix Management covering grains and oilseeds. At Perennial Management he was in charge of sugar research and trading as well as conducting coffee, cocoa and macroeconomic research. Will started his career at AIG in the Hedge Fund Strategies group. Will earned a Bachelor of Science & Engineering in Operations Research and Financial Engineering from Princeton University and is a CFA charter holder.

William Osnato

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Senior Research Analyst

Kelly has more than 10 years of experience in commodity analytics. Prior to joining Gro, Kelly spent many years working at a hedge fund and a commercial trading house. Kelly understands the ins and outs of commodity analysis but more importantly a client’s needs in regard to trading, hedging, and procurement decisions. Kelly holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Lehigh University.

Kelly Goughary

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Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing vast destruction and human suffering in Ukraine. It is also reverberating through global food supply chains by disrupting shipments of Black Sea wheat, vegetable oils, corn, barley, and fertilizers.<ul><li>Agricultural commodity prices have surged in volatile trading</li><li>Import-reliant countries are scrambling for alternative supplies</li><li>Energy prices have jumped, with crude oil topping $100 a barrel&nbsp;</li></ul>In this Gro Strategic Assessment, we quantify the impact the Russia-Ukraine war is having on global inventories of agricultural commodities. We also evaluate how much other world regions are able to increase their exports to help fill the supply shortfalls created by the war. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Strategic Assessment here</a>.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks

Food price inflation is at its highest level in a decade. Successive years of poor growing conditions across several key commodities, coupled with strong demand, have pulled down agricultural product inventories worldwide to their tightest levels in years and driven prices higher. As many nations’ economies continue to recover from COVID-19, and issues ranging from labor shortages to intense drought emerge, the current period of high prices could be with us well into 2022 and beyond.&nbsp;One of the strongest signals for continued food inflation is a second consecutive year of drought in agricultural powerhouse South America, brought on by the return of the La Niña weather event. Big producers Brazil and Argentina are headed for smaller harvests of major crops, especially corn, soybeans, and sugar, Gro’s machine-learning models show. Even a robust US harvest from the upcoming season won’t be able to make up for the depth of South America’s current crop troubles.As a result, global supplies of many commodities will remain tight, and food prices, already soaring in most parts of the world, will remain elevated through yet another global crop cycle.Background&nbsp;A broad acceleration of food price inflation in the US has been underway since May 2020, around the beginning of the COVID lockdowns. Gro’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGLM2DqZ">US Food Price Index</a>, which reflects prices based on consumption of a wide range of food items, is up 30% from this time last year.&nbsp;<ul><li>The index’s increase signals a continuation of intense inflationary pressure on basic food necessities such as proteins and grains used in making a wide variety of packaged food products.&nbsp;</li><li>Rising US food prices have global impact, given the outsize role of the US in worldwide food and agricultural markets.&nbsp;</li><li>The <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-ag-price-index">Gro US Food Price Index</a> updates daily and provides an inflation estimate for the current month, which is up to six weeks ahead of when official US government data becomes available.&nbsp;</li></ul>The biggest drivers of US food price inflation are meat and poultry.&nbsp;<ul><li>Wholesale <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vq6131NdW">US beef prices</a> rose 25% in 2021 from the previous year, while <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDvQmzdV">poultry prices</a> doubled, putting sharp upward pressure on retail prices as well.&nbsp;</li><li>Since late December 2021, US pork cold storage levels fell to 21% below five-year average levels. As boneless hams require more labor to remove the bone, they were in even <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeWwVZ9L">tighter supply.</a>&nbsp;</li></ul>Robust consumer demand as economies pick up steam is driving protein prices higher, while labor shortages have restricted protein processor production.&nbsp;<ul><li>Sharply higher animal feed costs have also pushed up protein prices.&nbsp;</li><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kqzK7blRW">Corn futures</a> prices are up 5.5% so far in 2022, and up 35% year over year. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR80VG8Re">Soybean prices</a> have risen even more, gaining 17% so far in 2022 and 38% compared with last year.&nbsp;</li><li>Droughts in Brazil, Canada, and the US, along with unprecedented demand from China, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/o9vPWnKqb">tightened global supplies</a> of grains and oilseeds used in animal feed.&nbsp;</li></ul><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJpoBodV">Milk prices</a> are up 31% year over year, also due to higher feed costs.<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.58%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416385/new-website/image1_738b8a06c2.jpg"><figcaption>Wholesale chicken breast prices have soared amid lower supplies and rising feed costs, contributing to a 30% year-over-year jump in Gro’s US Food Price Index.</figcaption></figure>Higher Prices WorldwideVegetable oils are one of the most common commodities around the world, used widely in cooking and as ingredients in nearly every packaged food product. But as global <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1QMmKqW">vegetable oil supplies </a>tighten, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBojk9b">prices have risen</a> substantially for more than a year, hitting profit margins of packaged food manufacturers.&nbsp;<ul><li>Gro’s VegOil Feedstock Price Index, which tracks price changes in various edible oils, is up 41.8% in January from a year earlier.&nbsp;</li><li>The index is part of Gro’s newly launched <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/custom-price-indices">Custom Price Indices application</a>, which enables food manufacturers to create price indices of key ingredients, using customer-selected inputs and weights, and track inflationary pressures.</li></ul>Potato prices in the US are up 20% year over year, amid declining production and supply chain disruptions around the world.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-potato-production-decline-deepens-global-supply-shortage">US potato production</a> in 2021 was 7% below the five-year average as severe drought in several states resulted in the worst potato yields in years. The No. 1 producing state, Idaho, saw yields drop 9%.</li><li>Port disruptions and weak harvests created french fry shortages in markets from Japan to Kenya.</li><li>North American potato trade flows were curtailed after a potato wart outbreak prompted an export ban from Prince Edward Island, Canada’s largest potato producing province.</li></ul>Food inflation has taken hold worldwide, with year-over-year prices up 8% in Canada and 5% in Brazil, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1QB6vqW">Gro’s Food Price Indices for those countries</a>.&nbsp;<ul><li>Gro’s Brazil Food Price Index is close to its highest level ever, and is up 63% since the first set of COVID-related lockdowns in Brazil in May 2020.&nbsp;</li><li>Food price increases in Brazil have been exacerbated by the depreciation of the Real, which is down 15% over the past two years.</li></ul>Rising prices have prompted some countries to restrict commodity exports in order to maintain domestic supplies and quell food price inflation.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/indonesia-s-palm-oil-export-curbs-will-squeeze-global-supplies">Indonesia</a>, the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, announced curbs on palm oil exports.&nbsp;</li><li>Other countries, including <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/russia-ramps-up-wheat-export-restrictions">Russia</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/argentina-to-cap-corn-and-wheat-exports-amid-forecast-for-record-crops">Argentina</a>, have restricted grain exports.&nbsp;</li><li>Such measures could further tighten global supplies and create additional upward pressure for food prices.</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:74.72%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416608/new-website/image3_2e19cb459e.jpg"><figcaption>Tightening global supplies of vegetable oils, one of the most widely used commodities, have pushed prices sharply higher, hitting profit margins of packaged food manufacturers.&nbsp; Gro’s VegOil Feedstock Price Index, which tracks price changes in various edible oils, is up 41.8% in January from a year earlier.</figcaption></figure>Headed Into 2022: South America Drives Global MarketsBig agricultural producers Brazil and Argentina are headed for smaller harvests of major crops, especially corn, soybeans, and sugar, Gro’s machine-learning models show.&nbsp;<ul><li>The result will be a continuation of tight global supplies for many commodities.&nbsp;</li><li>Food prices, already soaring in most parts of the world, will remain elevated through yet another global crop cycle.&nbsp;</li><li>Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter. It is also the No. 1 producer and exporter of sugar and Arabica coffee.</li><li>Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal as well as a major supplier of corn to world markets.&nbsp;</li></ul>A return of the La Niña global climate event is bringing another year of drought to key growing regions in Argentina and southern Brazil.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAxMrgd4">Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a> currently indicates a sizable production decline.&nbsp;</li><li>Gro’s yield forecast models for <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0XbrqK">Argentina corn</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NB6aD9b">soybeans</a> currently show both crops will be down by double-digit percentages year over year.</li><li>Gro’s forecasts for South America are based on our extensive platform of data analytics, indices, and machine-learning models that have proved to be more reliable than government estimates and are available weeks or months earlier than official reports.</li></ul>Gro’s new Strategic Assessment, “<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/south-america-outlook-2022">2022: The Year South America Drives Global Agricultural Markets</a>,” which is available for download, offers an in-depth look at the current South American season’s prospects. &nbsp;<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.04%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416573/new-website/image2_5f2440a6b3.jpg"><figcaption>A second consecutive year of drought in southern Brazil is depressing yields and production forecasts for the country’s big soybean crop, as shown via the Gro Drought Index. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans.</figcaption></figure>ConclusionYears of major agricultural product inventory reductions coupled with strong demand have led to rising food inflation worldwide. An expected shortfall in South American production this season could exacerbate global supply shortages, prolonging inflationary pressures for food well into the new year.&nbsp;US farmers can be expected to increase their total planted acreage of corn and soybeans, despite sharply elevated fertilizer prices, as crop shortfalls in South America prolong high commodity prices. But even a strong US harvest later this year won’t be sufficient to offset the damage already done to South American crops due to drought, Gro’s models show.&nbsp;The result will be a continuation of tight global supplies for many commodities and persistent food price inflation through yet another global crop cycle. Additional increases in food prices in 2022 will hit consumers and further squeeze profit margins for food manufacturing and merchandising companies worldwide.

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A Look at Rising Food Inflation

Agricultural powerhouse South America will have a greater-than-normal impact on global markets in 2022, a <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/south-america-outlook-2022">new Gro Strategic Assessment</a> concludes.&nbsp;&nbsp;

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2022: The Year South America Drives Global Agricultural Markets

Earlier this month, Gro’s SVP of Agribusiness, Jim Heneghan, joined a group of global agricultural experts and leaders at AgFunder and Intellias’ roundtable discussion on LinkedIn LIVE. Alongside Julia Poroshenko of Agrohub, Dmytro Lennyi of Intellias, Himanshu Gupta of ClimateAI, Dr. Simi Thambi of FAIRR, and Maryna Kuzmenko of Petiole, Heneghan spoke about building a resilient agricultural industry amid geopolitical conflict and changing climate conditions.<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtZoi5aHawE">Watch the full recording of the roundtable here</a>.Russia-Ukraine war adding fuel to the fireThe Russia-Ukraine war has driven extraordinary additional supply disruptions during a time of already highly uncertain and volatile global agricultural markets. Since 2020, the world has faced COVID-19 related labor shortages, droughts, and rising food and fertilizer prices.Russia and Ukraine used to provide nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports and are in the top five exporters of corn globally. Combined, they used to export 75% of global sunflower oil supplies. Now, all Ukrainian ports remain closed, blocking traditional grain movements and cutting off key grain supplies. Russian exports, which also include fertilizer, are limited because of Black Sea maritime hazards.The resulting food and hunger crisis calls for immediate global action.“It’s one of the most extreme, if not the most extreme [situations] I’ve seen in my career,” said Heneghan.&nbsp;An unprecedented confluence of contributing factorsSeveral major factors are contributing to the current food crisis. Fertilizer shortages, climate disruptions, record low inventories of key commodities, and logistical bottlenecks are occurring simultaneously and have already started to unravel decades of global economic progress. Data shows the food security challenges we face will last several years, as Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, noted in her briefing to the United Nations Security Council last month.&nbsp;“The confluence of successive droughts, successive supply [chain] shocks, now a war, now fertilizer reduction in areas that produce the most and feed the world,” Heneghan said. “Stakeholders in the world need to be fully on this because it’s nothing like we’ve seen before.”“I think there are some glimmers of hope,” Heneghan added. “La Nina breaking to some degree, US crops getting in the ground…there are some areas of better prospects. But we’re already coming off multi-year problems in the global supply of these products.”Building a resilient ag industry with comprehensive global dataData fills coverage gaps and connects seemingly disconnected issues, clarifying the path forward. During times of war or increasingly volatile climate conditions, deeper visibility and wider knowledge are vital to strategic planning. Access to trusted data helps governments, humanitarian organizations, and companies worldwide fully understand food security related risks and outcomes and identify the countries most at risk for food insecurity.&nbsp;“When we had a surge in global food prices and we had issues in 2007 and 2008 - wheat, rice, globally - and even Arab Spring times in ‘11 and ‘12, the difference versus today is we’re onto the problems and situations and running the calculations so much better than we did back then,” Heneghan said. “So stakeholders recognize the magnitude of the problem much better now than they did a decade or more ago.”While we live in an increasingly fragile, interconnected global food system, with accurate information and coordinated global effort, it is possible to build a healthy global economy and secure food system.“Through technology, the answer can’t be ‘I didn’t know about it.’ Yes you can get the transparency on it through what we’re doing and what others here on this panel have done,” Heneghan said. “That speed to solution will be so much more beneficial on top of things, and you can avert big problems that might have occurred.”&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtZoi5aHawE">Watch the full recording of the roundtable here</a>.See how the Gro platform can help your team navigate these pressing challenges by <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/contact">reaching out to us here</a>.As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all. With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool that shows the supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for 49 African countries. Visit the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa">Food Security Tracker for Africa here</a>.

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Gro's Jim Heneghan at AgFunder Roundtable

At the United Nations Security Council’s May 19 session on conflict and global food security, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, spoke about the growing global food crisis, the confluence of unprecedented factors contributing to this crisis, and its disproportionate impact on lower-income countries.Watch the livestream <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k10/k10mjpv1u3?kalturaStartTime=2120" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.Sara Menker: It is an honor to be here today to highlight and reaffirm that food security is, in fact, national security and global stability.&nbsp;Before I share some data-driven insights on the state of our global food systems, let me tell you a little bit about Gro Intelligence. Gro is a company founded to help tackle two of the greatest challenges we face as humanity: food security and climate change. We are a global company with offices in Nairobi, Singapore, and New York. Our team comes from over 40 countries that range from Ethiopia, where I am from, to Russia, Nigeria, India, the United States, China and Ukraine. We are a company of domain experts in software infrastructure, climate science, agronomy, trading, and financial markets. We combine that with world-class engineering and AI talent. We work with large and small companies. We work with financial institutions, and we work with multiple governments.I come here today to share insights from our data, with the underlying hope that all of us here with the power to change the course of history will choose to do so.&nbsp;I want to start by explicitly saying that the Russia-Ukraine war did not start the food security crisis. It simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning. A crisis we detected tremors from long before the COVID 19 pandemic exposed the fragility of our supply chains.&nbsp;I share this because we believe it's important for you all to understand that even if the war were to end tomorrow, our food security problem isn't going away anytime soon without concerted action.&nbsp;Now on to the statistics: Gro Intelligence estimates show that price increases in major food crops year to date has made an additional 400 million people food insecure. There are a few food security statistics shared so I want to define this as the number of people at $3.59 a day. To put this into perspective, that is equivalent to the number of people that China has taken out of poverty in the last 20 years. In five months, we have undone 20 years of progress.&nbsp;Furthermore, our economic shock models show that year to date changes in prices of agricultural products have already affected some economies by three to 5% of their GDP. Countries disproportionately affected are in regions such as North Africa, the Middle East, the Horn of Africa and West and Central Asia.&nbsp;And it can get much worse. Data shows the food security challenges we face will last several years.&nbsp;There are five major challenges occurring simultaneously that are each individually extraordinary. Lack of fertilizer, climate disruptions, record low inventories in cooking oils, record low inventories of grains, and logistical bottlenecks that have already started to unravel decades of global economic progress.&nbsp;Without substantial immediate and aggressive coordinated global actions, we stand the risk of an extraordinary amount of both human suffering and economic damage. This isn’t cyclical, this is seismic. It’s a once in a generation occurrence that can dramatically reshape the geopolitical era.FertilizersGlobal fertilizer prices have nearly tripled year on year and quadrupled over the past two years because of supply shocks driven by logistical bottlenecks, restrictions on natural gas which impact the ability to produce fertilizer, and sanctions and export restrictions amidst the Russia Ukraine war. This risks significant crop yield reductions in key producing regions, such as Brazil, the United States, and Western Europe later this year and next year, severely impacting global food security and inflation for the next three to five years at a minimum.ClimateGlobal drought conditions for wheat are the worst in over 20 years around the world. Major bread baskets such as the United States and Brazil, the world's two largest exporters of agricultural products, are also experiencing extreme droughts. For example, Brazil’s cropland soil moisture is at a 20 year low. Major grain importers in the Middle East and Africa are also experiencing record droughts. Namely, we have both major importers and major exporters experiencing exceptional drought conditions.Cooking OilsThe price of traditionally cheap palm oil has nearly tripled in the last two years. Driven by increased biofuels demand, drought in regions that produce alternative cooking oils such as Brazil and Canada, record import demand from China and the loss of nearly 75% of global sunflower oil exports due to the Russia Ukraine war. The recent export ban in Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, who is responsible for 60% of global production has added significant upward price pressure to vegetable oils.GrainsOfficial government agency estimates from around the world put wheat inventories at 33% of annual consumption. Verifiable data from public and private sources that we as a company organize and then build statistical models to connect the dots between in our platform show that global wheat inventories are in fact closer to 20%, a level not seen since the financial and commodity crisis of 2007 and 2008. We currently only have 10 weeks of global consumption sitting in inventory around the world. Conditions today are worse than those experienced in 2007 and 2008. &nbsp;It is important to note that the lowest grain inventory levels the world has ever seen are now occurring while access to fertilizers is highly constrained, and drought in wheat growing regions around the world is the most extreme it’s been in over 20 years. Similar inventory concerns also apply to corn and other grains. Government estimates are not adding up.LogisticsRussia and Ukraine used to provide nearly a third of the world's wheat exports and are in the top five exporters of corn globally. Combined, they used to export 75% of global sunflower oil supplies. All Ukrainian ports remain closed, making it impossible to move any of Ukraine's harvested grain across its borders. Shifting to rail will move less than 10% of the prewar flow. It's not enough. Russian exports, which also include fertilizer, are limited because of Black Sea maritime hazards.Any one of the five things I outlined would be considered a major issue in commodity markets. The five combined are truly unprecedented.&nbsp;I come here today not to specifically offer or provide solutions, as there will be other venues to do so. But rather to X-ray and diagnose the problem for those of you in this room that have the power to change the course of our history. In a world that is increasingly isolationist, we need to come together. Food is personal. But our agricultural systems are global.&nbsp;There is no version of the world where every country has all the natural resources it needs to survive and thrive. One key takeaway from our data is how often we see repeated examples of cause and effect, highlighting surprising connections and interdependencies. For example, in the United States, the most self-sufficient country globally, a consumption-weighted basket of food - a grocery basket - has doubled in price since April of 2020. Price increases were driven by unprecedented demand around the world, which increased alongside climate related supply side shocks. We cannot solve food insecurity on a national scale anywhere.&nbsp;One thing we strongly believe is we can have a healthy economy and secure food system without degrading our environment. We have the capability to help everyone feel secure about having enough food. Data helps us navigate because we aren't blind to food security related risks and outcomes. We can't say we didn't know.There are positive solutions and approaches that can be offered and delivered but they will require coordinated global effort. We are all dependent on one another.What does the data tell us about risk and interdependencies? It tells us not unlike the global financial crisis of 2008 there are fault lines and tremor-like early warning signals that are seemingly disconnected globally, but they aren't.&nbsp;What does the data tell us about hope? It tells us that while the next few years are going to likely be difficult as a result of this statistically unusual confluence of the five challenges I shared, we can coordinate a global response, eschew a ‘to each their own mentality’ as to food security and climate risk, be willing to have constructive, albeit difficult, conversations, and jointly accept that what we have to address is less of a food shortage and more of a crisis of prioritization. As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all. With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool that shows the supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for 49 African countries. Visit the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Food Security Tracker for Africa here</a>.

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Gro's CEO, Sara Menker, Briefs the United Nations Security Council: Conflict and Global Food Security

During the United Nations Security Council’s May 19 session on Conflict and Global Food Security, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, spoke about the growing global food crisis, the confluence of unprecedented factors contributing to this crisis, and its disproportionate impact on lower-income countries. Watch the livestream <a href="https://media.un.org/en/asset/k10/k10mjpv1u3?kalturaStartTime=2120" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all.&nbsp;With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool on key agricultural commodities for 49 African countries. The tool aims to create data transparency for countries where this has previously been lacking, in light of the unprecedented challenges connected to the current global food crisis.&nbsp;Understanding the impact of the global food crisis&nbsp;Environmental, economic, and political shocks are driving rapidly rising food prices and limiting access to major crop staples. The resulting crisis has had a disproportionate impact on lower-income countries. In a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/opinion/ukraine-war-food-crisis.html?partner=slack&amp;smid=sl-share">recent op-ed for The New York Times</a>, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, and Dr. Rajiv Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, showed how rising wheat prices have caused the price of bread, an essential staple, to roughly double in Sudan.Understanding the supply and demand of major crops – corn, soy, wheat, and rice – across Africa on a real-time basis helps acknowledge the full impact of this crisis. Supply and demand balance sheets, which incorporate monthly historical and forecasted supply and demand of major crops, transform all of the forces that drive a commodity’s price into an actionable end-of-year supply number. These “ending stocks” estimates for a commodity help forecast price and identify future areas of risk.&nbsp;Currently, this data is not easily accessible in one location, leaving a large gap in the coverage of supply and demand for principal food crops in Africa. As a result, companies across the global agricultural supply chain face a major blind spot. Donors are unable to accurately direct funds. And governments lack essential knowledge as they scramble for alternative sources of supply amid the current global food crisis.&nbsp;“By combining cutting-edge technology and humanitarian relief efforts and leveraging the private sector for public use, our collaboration with The Rockefeller Foundation will help strengthen food security initiatives, address inequities, and build a sustainable world for all,” said Ms. Menker. “With this new tool, governments, companies, and humanitarian organizations will be better equipped to anticipate food shortages, direct relief, and improve strategic planning in response to the unprecedented level of supply and demand shocks that have caused global food insecurity.”&nbsp;&nbsp;By combining data on drought, crop conditions, prices, supply and demand all in one place, users will be able to develop more effective solutions and emergency response plans to the growing shortages of key agricultural commodities across the continent.Leveraging the power of the Gro platform“To create a more comprehensive picture, the Gro team, which includes both domain experts and technologists, leveraged our platform and the scaling power of our machine-learning models to quickly and accurately provide needed data,” said Will Osnato, Senior Research Analyst at Gro Intelligence. “With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, we will offer agricultural balance sheets that denote supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for the next year. In addition, the tool has been tested and reviewed by our analyst team and methodologies are made available to fully encompass the transparency and objectivity of our platform.”Alongside real-time supply and demand balance sheets, Gro’s Food Security Tracker for Africa makes key metrics for 49 African countries publicly available for the first time, including:<ul><li>Gro’s Production Forecast – Production estimates are calculated using Gro’s machine learning-based yield forecasts, which incorporate real-time environmental data and historical production data to predict supply.</li><li>Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/stocks-to-use-vs-price" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Stocks-to-Use Ratio</a> – A country’s reserves of a specific crop is an indicator of food security. A stocks-to-use ratio shows the relationship between stocks and usage.&nbsp; Gro’s Stocks-to-Use Ratio is calculated as total food calorie stocks at the end of the marketing year – a period of one year designated by the growing season of a specific commodity. This number is then divided by total food calorie demand (domestic consumption + exports) across each of the four crops in the selected region.&nbsp;</li><li>Cropland-Weighted <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/gro-drought-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Drought Index</a> (GDI) – The proprietary Gro Drought Index is the world’s first high resolution global agricultural drought index. The GDI measures drought severity on a scale from “0” (no drought) to “5” (exceptional drought). The index is global, offering data on the continent, country, state, and district level. The values shown on the tool are weighted by cropland area at the district level for each country.&nbsp;</li><li>Crop-Area Weighted Vegetative Health Index (NDVI) – NDVI is a key satellite-based indicator of plant health, used to forecast crop production, supply, and price. Lower NDVI signals lower levels of production, suggesting higher risks of food insecurity.</li><li>Prices – Price series were selected based on Free-on-board (FOB) export prices from the largest import supplier for the selected country. If the country is not a significant importer, then representative global prices were selected.</li></ul>About this partnership&nbsp;Gro Intelligence’s partnership with The Rockefeller Foundation represents a unique opportunity for the advantages of cutting-edge technology to advance humanitarian relief programs. When the private sector is leveraged for the public sector, it can help food security initiatives, address inequities, and build a sustainable world for all.&nbsp;&nbsp;About Gro Intelligence&nbsp;Gro Intelligence works with companies, financial institutions, humanitarian organizations, and governments on forecasting risks to food security that may result in food or hunger crises.&nbsp;&nbsp;Our food security platform serves as a single source of truth and an early warning hub that provides up-to-date information, insights, and analysis across the value chain. The platform predicts future trends and promotes proactive, evidence-based decision making to guarantee the food security of our partners.See more on our work with the public sector <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/agriculture/public-sector-overview" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.For more information visit the Food Security Tracker for Africa <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a> or contact us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a>.

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New Agricultural Data Tool Can Help Fight the Growing Food Crisis in Africa

As part of our continued effort to help organizations tackle the growing effects of climate change, Gro has joined the stakeholder Forum of the <a href="https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/">Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure (TNFD)</a>, a market-led initiative aimed at developing a risk management and disclosure framework to help organizations manage and report on nature-related risks.As a TNFD Forum member, Gro will be working alongside 400 other organizations to help financial institutions and companies assess nature-related risks and opportunities and incorporate these assessments into their long-term strategies and risk planning.Leveraging the Gro platform to manage climate change impactsAccording to the World Economic Forum (WEF) report, published in collaboration with PwC, over half the world’s total GDP is dependent on nature and its services, and the three largest nature-dependent industries are construction, agriculture, and food and beverage.Under all climate change scenarios shown by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these industries will increasingly face significant risk of physical climate impact in coming years. To manage that risk, companies must first measure it.&nbsp;Gro works directly with companies in both the agricultural and the food and beverage industries to help form a clearer picture of the effect that extreme weather volatility is having, and will continue to have, on the places and ecosystems that they care most about. Our customizable models and applications, such as our Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, leverage real-time data and long-term climate indicators to accurately measure and assess climate risk.&nbsp;"If we have these persistent shocks that are occurring from a climate standpoint, it doesn't mean we can't manage them. It just better mean that we know how to measure them consistently and for the whole world and every day,” Gro Intelligence's CEO, Sara Menker, said recently at the 2022 World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit.About The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial DisclosuresThe potential social and economic effects of climate change are staggering, but through its work&nbsp; the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure is supporting a shift to nature-positive outcomes by helping organizations manage nature-related risks and recognize that nature can also be used to reduce climate risk and deal with the causes of climate change.The TNFD aims to release a framework for reporting and managing nature-related risks by Q3 2023.&nbsp;Please reach out to us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> to schedule a conversation with our team and learn more about our work with the TNFD.

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Gro Intelligence Joins The Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosure Forum

The Russia-Ukraine war has caused unimaginable human suffering in Ukraine and has set the stage for a food and hunger crisis that is reverberating far beyond Europe’s borders. Russia and Ukraine provide nearly a third of global wheat exports, 76% of global sunflower oil exports, and are major suppliers of barley and corn. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fertilizers.&nbsp;Monitoring the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Wheat SupplyShipment disruptions from the critical Black Sea region must be closely monitored to address the impact of the food crisis.&nbsp;The Gro team is providing the <a href="https://earthobservations.org/geoglam.php">Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative</a> continued coverage of crop conditions within Russia and Ukraine for key crops wheat and corn, as well as any updates from the Russia-Ukraine war that may impact exports. Each month, the Gro team reports on regional growing conditions, weather, and climate and provides yield estimates for corn and wheat.&nbsp;Gro’s crop projections are based on Gro’s extensive satellite imagery, precipitation and temperature forecasts, and the Gro Drought Index, which measures the severity of drought on a scale of 0-5 for every region in the world. Our research analysts also leverage Gro’s Yield Forecast Models for wheat, specifically, to see the impact of climate conditions on production.On Wednesday, March 30th, at the monthly GEOGLAM meeting, Gro reported favorable conditions for winter wheat production in Russia, with those conditions continuing through April. In Ukraine, Gro reported drier than average conditions for winter wheat. In addition, farmers are facing both the disruptions from the ongoing war and fertilizer shortages. The former Minister of Agriculture said Ukraine is expecting to lose <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-agriculture-minister-submits-resignation-aide-2022-03-24/">2.5 million hectares of winter wheat due to the war</a>, which will be felt worldwide.“Each country's food security is deeply entwined with that of other countries, and the Russia-Ukraine war does more than affect the crops in Ukraine alone,” said Kristina Yamamoto, Gro’s Senior Geospatial Analyst who assists with our collaboration with GEOGLAM.“GEOGLAM provides a forum for discussion with regional agricultural experts as we work together to monitor global crop conditions. Sharing information with partners across the world strengthens all of our work, and this tenet rings especially true in times of crisis.”Partnering with GEOGLAM to Improve Global Food SecurityGro For Good partners with GEOGLAM to provide crop monitoring for key growing regions and crops worldwide, with the goal of improving global food security and forecasting the impact on food price inflation and political stability.&nbsp;Gro For Good and GEOGLAM have been working together for over three years. Funded in part by NASA Harvest, and in conjunction with the University of Maryland, <a href="https://nasaharvest.org/project/geo-global-agricultural-monitoring-geoglam-initiative">GEOGLAM was launched in 2011</a> as part of the G20 Action Plan on Food Price Volatility, which also includes the Agriculture Information System (AMIS). GEOGLAM advances existing programs through coordinated Earth observation and research and development activities.“Providing access to information has always been at the heart of Gro's mission, and the goals of GEOGLAM and Gro align well,” Yamamoto said. “A key to solving complex global issues is building connections - from data to regions to people. Everyone at GEOGLAM is dedicated to collaboration and sharing knowledge - it's a powerful program, and we are pleased to participate.”Continuing to Support Global Food Security Amid Conflict and Climate ChangeAs a continued effort to tackle global food security in a time of conflict and climate change, Gro For Good is offering to partner with humanitarian organizations on a pro bono basis to help identify and strategically tackle current crises and those yet to emerge. We will not only offer access to our models and data free of charge but our team will also make themselves available to further explain, contextualize, and help navigate the unprecedented impact of this crisis.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Gro For Good provides free Premium access to academics, NGOs, and those working on global food security and climate change for the public good. We are committed to collaboratively building solutions to some of the world’s most pressing challenges.Please reach out to us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> to schedule a conversation with our team or <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/gro-for-good" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">apply to the Gro For Good program</a> today.

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Gro For Good and GEOGLAM: Improving Global Food Security

At the 2022 World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit, Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, discussed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on major commodities wheat, vegetable oils, and fertilizer, and showed how drought and future climate scenarios will rewrite our global food systems. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/world-agri-tech-summit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full presentation</a>In the Context of the Current Russia-Ukraine CrisisMenker framed her remarks within the current Russia-Ukraine crisis - new fuel on a fire of ongoing inflation, drought, and food security risk.“Three of the major stories from the Russia-Ukraine war that we're all discussing right now are vegetable oils, wheat, and fertilizer,” Menker said.As the crisis cuts off critical supplies of these commodities from the Black Sea region, it further exacerbates issues we are already facing – high prices and tight global supplies, Menker said.Soaring Commodity PricesUsing Gro’s Vegetable Oil Feedstock Price Index, developed with Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/applications/custom-price-index-application" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Custom Price Index Application</a>, Menker showed how vegetable oil prices have essentially more than doubled since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.&nbsp;The average food price index in the US is up close to 29% year over year. Looking at the mix of ingredients in a product - everything from onions to celery to wheat to oils - shows that this is a structural problem, not cyclical.Worsening Drought Is Impacting World Food SuppliesUsing <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/gro-drought-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Drought Index</a>, which measures drought on a scale of zero-to-five every day for every square kilometer on earth, Menker presented a macro look at current dry conditions globally.Several major agricultural producing regions currently show levels of extreme to exceptional drought, including Brazil, which is currently coming out of a growing season that took quite a hard hit this year, the US, which is going into the winter wheat-growing season for the summer, Northern Africa, and the Middle East.&nbsp;Comparing current conditions to the 10-year average for the 10-prior years, for exactly the same point in time, shows that drought conditions in North America, South America, North and East Africa, and the Middle East are significantly worse than normal.&nbsp;“The question becomes, how are we going to repurpose our systems, to calibrate for the realities that we currently live in? How are we going to think about innovation to manage these risks?” Menker asked.“If we have these persistent shocks that are occurring from a climate standpoint, it doesn't mean we can't manage them. It just better mean that we have our eyes open - that we know how to measure them and [that] we know how to measure them consistently and for the whole world and every day,” Menker said.&nbsp;“We want to do that at the most micro-level possible and extend it into macro-level insights. So we can contextualize and understand the world because ultimately, if there's anything we've learned over the last couple of years, it is that we live in a very interconnected global food system. And it is incredibly fragile.”Seeing Around the CornerTo manage the fragility, Gro provides the ability to see around the corner. We can now use data to understand what's coming over the next 10, 20, or 30 years to better manage, move supply chains forward, and change the trajectory.“This is the magic and the abilities that we now have in terms of being able to combine complex datasets from hundreds of supercomputing labs and convert them into insights that we can understand,” Menker said.Using Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/land-suitability-ranking" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Land Suitability Model</a>, Menker looked at how peas and the suitability of growing peas in Europe might change over time, under different climate change scenarios.&nbsp;“What makes me hopeful is we can't say we don't know. And we can't say we didn't know. So the only thing left is for us to be able to take some form of action,” Menker said.&nbsp; <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/world-agri-tech-summit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full presentation</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/contact" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Talk to our team</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/open-positions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">See open positions</a>

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Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, at the World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating extraordinary shocks for world food prices and supplies. Outside of the human suffering directly resulting from armed conflict, these shocks have reverberated far beyond Europe’s borders and will lead to other humanitarian crises around the world.&nbsp;&nbsp;Gro Intelligence is offering to partner with humanitarian organizations on a pro bono basis to help identify and strategically tackle current crises and those yet to emerge. We will not only offer access to our models and data free of charge but our team will also make themselves available to further explain, contextualize, and help navigate the unprecedented impact of this crisis.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Please help us get the word out and share with organizations that can benefit from this or that can help advance humanitarian efforts. We believe that taking actions informed by real-time insights today can result in significantly better outcomes for the world in the coming months.&nbsp;We have put together a <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-and-the-humanitarian-food-crisis">Russia-Ukraine humanitarian resources page</a> for humanitarian organizations to track the implications for global food security on a real-time basis. We are also providing free access to our Food Security Risk Management Toolkit to any humanitarian organization.&nbsp;This resources page incorporates all of the real-time models included in the toolkit we launched for <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-impact-on-global-agricultural-markets">companies and asset managers</a> facing volatile market conditions.The current conflict has not only illuminated the interconnected nature of our food systems but has yet again exposed the fragility of them. The Gro Intelligence team has spent the past few weeks supporting our customers and partners in navigating the volatility and uncertainty around global agricultural markets. We have fielded calls from companies, funds, journalists and governments seeking everything from data to advice.We have seen firsthand the power of having a platform with real-time insights at global scale covering markets ranging from wheat to fertilizer and vegetable oils and topics ranging from inflation to economic shocks.We also recognize our role as an objective and often the only provider of these real-time insights at scale, and given the difficulty of the times, we must transparently extend beyond providing this data and insights to a select few.Please reach out to us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> to schedule a conversation with our team.<figure class="image image_resized image-style-align-center" style="width:75.13%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1648753138/new-website/Ukraine_Wheat_Infographic_Vertical_March_15_2022_1_1_db6211c1ca.png"></figure>

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