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La Niña’s unusual return appearance for a third year in a row bodes well for next year’s palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest producers.A Gro analysis previously found that above-average precipitation in the two countries, which typically accompanies La Niña climate events, is often associated with higher palm oil yields 6-8 months later and possibly longer.&nbsp;NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) estimates that there is a 91% chance of La Niña weather conditions continuing through November 2022. Although the CPC expects La Niña will also stick around through the Northern Hemisphere winter, it ascribes a lower, 65% chance of this occurring.&nbsp;Historically, La Niña tends to bring above-normal precipitation for much of Indonesia and Malaysia from August into November, a trend that is also bearing out this year. This would suggest higher palm oil production early in the second quarter and into the third quarter of 2023. One widely followed, medium-term forecast model, the North American Multi Model Ensemble, appears to be picking up on this signal and has above-normal precipitation forecast for most of Indonesia and Malaysia this fall.&nbsp;<a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1123,Malaysia:1095,Indonesia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22OilPalm%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:12,Asia:1123,Malaysia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> shows that soil moisture is at its highest level since at least 2010 in the palm growing areas of both Indonesia and Malaysia, a factor that should give a boost to palm oil yields in coming months.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1663707425/new-website/Daily_Soil_Moisture_in_Palm_Growing_Areas_of_Indonesia_48945d8370.png"><figcaption>The red line in this chart from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture shows current soil moisture in palm growing areas of Indonesia is at its highest level in at least a decade, pointing to increased production in 2023 in the world’s largest palm oil producer.</figcaption></figure>Palm plantations need regular precipitation to replenish water tables that are constantly being depleted by the thirsty trees. In Malaysia’s top two palm growing states of Sarawak and Sabah, aggregated precipitation so far this calendar year, weighted for palm-growing areas using <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/11602,Sabah:11603,Sarawak$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22OilPalm%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:12,Asia:1123,Malaysia:11602,Sabah" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate Risk Navigator</a>, is running at the fifth-highest level of this century. Soil moisture for the two states’ palm areas is the highest since at least 2010.&nbsp;Previous La Niña years resulted in higher palm oil yields. In the first half of 2019, Malaysia’s monthly crude palm oil production increased from the prior year by an average of 5.3% following the La Niña rains of 2017/18. 2020 and 2021 were also La Niña years, but production in both Indonesia and Malaysia was curtailed by labor shortages due to COVID restrictions. Other factors, including fertilizer applications, also can affect palm plant yields.&nbsp;Prices for palm oil, the most widely consumed vegetable oil, have dropped sharply from highs reached in April 2022, but recently increased again in concert with <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBojk9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybean oil</a> as forecasted production for the US soybean harvest has diminished. Meanwhile, global palm oil supplies have expanded amid stepped up exports from Indonesia and Malaysia. That’s a reversal from conditions this past winter, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated worldwide shortages of a host of vegetable oils.&nbsp;&nbsp;View a <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBNok9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Portal display</a> showing palm oil production, inventories, and trade among major global producers and consumers.&nbsp;&nbsp;La Niña conditions are currently in place, according to the CPC’s <a href="https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oceanic Niño Index</a>, which is calculated based on ocean temperatures in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean. A separate index called the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/8kR074Mqz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Multivariate ENSO Index</a>, which is available on Gro's web Portal, also indicates La Niña is in effect — negative values signal La Niña conditions while positive values point to El Niño conditions. The Multivariate ENSO Index includes additional variables such as sea level pressure.&nbsp;La Niña tends to create drought and dry conditions in many parts of the world, including Brazil, Argentina, and the US, while bringing additional precipitation to other areas, such as Australia and parts of Asia.&nbsp;

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La Niña’s Return Points to Higher Palm Oil Production in 2023

The US’ ongoing turkey shortage will intensify in the runup to Thanksgiving. If that sounds <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/turkey-sticker-shock-is-on-the-menu-for-thanksgiving">familiar</a>, consider this - the number of turkeys available for slaughter between now and Thanksgiving is only 0.7% above 2020 levels and turkey <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/o9vPnw1qb">cold storage</a> quantities are currently at a 22-year low.&nbsp;The US turkey flock is also being whittled down by the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/soaring-avian-flu-death-toll-drives-up-us-chicken-egg-prices">outbreak</a> that started just ahead of wild birds’ spring migratory season. In the US, about 6.5 million turkeys — roughly 3% of annual production — have been administratively destroyed because of HPAI, including half a million since August 29.&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/MnnGDVjGUrAxK6WVg0Kscqgg_cxLVYQxFuTDaKmq5oqUwHps8W2SIkqbTY0z2qcH8As282x2XzcEqw893SjvDzjNhIQZAD9aPF-GxC71N92NTUWOc0u8X_vObMg4N6MLrVNJarhxNhit4UviZLReiGpEUBDYEOU3IUHChyuJ1x6EFg8_DWXg_ItzNQ"><figcaption>The darker shades of green in this chart show which states have experienced the most turkey deaths linked to this year’s HPAI outbreak.&nbsp;</figcaption></figure><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/2022-bird-flu-outbreak-real-time-assessment">Gro’s Bird Flu Outbreak Monitor</a> shows how the epidemic has progressed and which parts of the country it has most affected. The <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2dawQyVRn">summertime</a> bird deaths levels correspond with the lack of seasonal migration of wild birds, which are believed to significantly increase the spread of the virus. The monitor also shows the US’ top turkey producing state, Minnesota, has suffered the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRnoJMk9Y">highest losses</a> of turkeys from HPAI (3.2 million lost of 40 million produced), but the greatest proportional losses have occurred in South Dakota (1.5 million lost of 12 million produced).&nbsp;This is bad news for Thanksgiving hosts as wholesale turkey prices are already at <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9QWml6qm">$1.10 per pound</a>, 10% above their all-time high, and expected to climb to about $1.20 per pound, 25% higher than last year’s price as the holiday approaches. The previous wholesale turkey price record of $0.97 per pound was set ahead of Thanksgiving of the 2014-2015 bird flu outbreak.Elevated food price inflation will likely factor into Thanksgiving planning this year. While year-over-year inflation is down from a recent peak in March, food prices are still 8.5% above year-ago levels, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/JqY3mjY98">Gro’s US Food Price Index</a>, which reflects prices based on consumption of a wide range of food items.Still, few Americans are likely to skimp on the holiday’s signature dish. And with higher COVID-19 vaccination rates and an almost steady decline in new cases since the mid-January peak, this year’s Thanksgiving gatherings are expected to bear a closer resemblance to pre-pandemic celebrations.&nbsp;Getting US turkey production back to pre-pandemic levels will take time. Last year, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9MQwkX9M">US turkey production</a> was 7.2 billion pounds, 3.9% lower than 2019’s production level. This is because turkey producers could not increase production fast enough to meet 2021’s Thanksgiving demand, which surged as COVID-19 vaccine came out. Turkey production is a 54-week process. It takes 32 weeks to raise a layer, another month to incubate an egg, and 18 weeks to grow out a Thanksgiving turkey.&nbsp;

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Americans Face Tight Turkey Supplies, Higher Prices for Thanksgiving

Argentina is experiencing one of the worst droughts in the past two decades, driven by a third consecutive year of La Niña. The dry conditions threaten to set back planting of the country’s corn and soybean crops, and to damage the upcoming harvest of winter wheat.&nbsp;Argentina’s weather woes, which come on top of drought conditions in the US and Europe and the ongoing war in Ukraine, add to concerns that the world’s 2022/23 crop cycle won’t be able to replenish depleted global supplies of many agricultural commodities. As a result, food prices are likely to remain elevated in much of the world, hurting consumers and squeezing profit margins for food manufacturing and merchandising companies.Early season drought hampered sowing of Argentine winter wheat last May and harvested area is projected to drop about 7% from last year. During the key growing months of September and October, yields are expected to be hurt as soil moisture readings, weighted for area planted to wheat using the <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1010,Argentina$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1010,Argentina" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>, are at their lowest level since at least 2010. In addition, Gro’s vegetative health index for the country’s wheat crop is below the average of the past 20 years.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1663621203/new-website/wheat_Sept19_0dffe06dfe.jpg"><figcaption>Just weeks before Argentina’s wheat harvest, the crop is contending with the lowest soil moisture levels (red line) in more than a decade, as shown by Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture.</figcaption></figure>Argentina is the second-biggest wheat producer in the Southern Hemisphere, after Australia, and plays an outsize role in global supplies because its crop helps to fill a gap after Northern Hemisphere countries’ wheat has been sold. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/JqYom8698" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Argentina typically exports</a> 12-13 million tonnes of wheat annually to Asia, North Africa, and other Latin American countries.&nbsp;In Argentina’s main corn growing provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and Santa Fe, drought conditions have worsened over the past month, as can be seen in <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/10156,Santa%20Fe:10141,C%C3%B3rdoba:10136,Buenos%20Aires$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1010,Argentina:10156,Santa%20Fe" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>, and are currently the third worst in two decades after 2008 and 2009, which were also La Niña years. As corn planting gets underway this month, Argentine farmers are contending with the lowest soil moisture levels since 2011.&nbsp;Gro users can follow Argentina’s corn crop outlook using our <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/EqZbNyLq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Argentina Corn Monitor</a>, which includes Gro’s Corn Yield Forecast Model, Drought Index readings, and Argentina Corn Balance Sheet. The machine-learning forecast model, which provides daily updates down to the district level, will go live when the crop becomes established around mid-December.&nbsp;&nbsp;Argentina has rivaled Brazil as the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/rdrBzzMdZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">world’s third-largest corn exporter</a>, with shipments going mainly to Asian destinations.&nbsp;Argentine soybeans, which are planted starting in November, could also be damaged if drought conditions persist. In each of the two previous La Niña years of 2020/21 and 2021/22, Argentina’s soybean production fell about 5% from the prior year, as can be seen on <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NB6aD9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Argentina Soybeans Monitor</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

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Argentina Drought Expected to Damage Wheat, Corn, Soy Crops

In this report, we will talk about how to use growing and climate conditions in a systematic way to better anticipate impact on final yield throughout the growing season—from planting to harvest.&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/incorporating-climate-into-agricultural-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the report here.</a>

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Incorporating Climate Into Agricultural Forecasting

Global vegetable oil prices have been on an upward trajectory for the better part of two years. The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24 caused prices to spike higher in volatile trading as Black Sea sunflower oil exports were halted by the conflict.In Gro’s latest Strategic Assessment, we address the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global vegetable oil markets. We show how vegetable oil supplies face renewed risks in several countries, which will continue to weigh on global markets, and how industry pressures may keep prices elevated for some time to come.You will learn:<ul><li>Why global vegetable oil production has struggled to keep up with rising consumption</li><li>How the Russia-Ukraine war and increasing demand for biofuels have exacerbated concerns about global vegetable oil supplies</li><li>How to monitor global production prospects to forecast potential impacts to the vegetable oil market</li></ul>&nbsp;<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-vegetable-oil-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Strategic Assessment</a>

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Fuel for the Fire: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vegetable Oil Prices

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing vast destruction and human suffering in Ukraine. It is also reverberating through global food supply chains by disrupting shipments of Black Sea wheat, vegetable oils, corn, barley, and fertilizers.<ul><li>Agricultural commodity prices have surged in volatile trading</li><li>Import-reliant countries are scrambling for alternative supplies</li><li>Energy prices have jumped, with crude oil topping $100 a barrel&nbsp;</li></ul>In this Gro Strategic Assessment, we quantify the impact the Russia-Ukraine war is having on global inventories of agricultural commodities. We also evaluate how much other world regions are able to increase their exports to help fill the supply shortfalls created by the war. <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Strategic Assessment here</a>.

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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks

Food price inflation is at its highest level in a decade. Successive years of poor growing conditions across several key commodities, coupled with strong demand, have pulled down agricultural product inventories worldwide to their tightest levels in years and driven prices higher. As many nations’ economies continue to recover from COVID-19, and issues ranging from labor shortages to intense drought emerge, the current period of high prices could be with us well into 2022 and beyond.&nbsp;One of the strongest signals for continued food inflation is a second consecutive year of drought in agricultural powerhouse South America, brought on by the return of the La Niña weather event. Big producers Brazil and Argentina are headed for smaller harvests of major crops, especially corn, soybeans, and sugar, Gro’s machine-learning models show. Even a robust US harvest from the upcoming season won’t be able to make up for the depth of South America’s current crop troubles.As a result, global supplies of many commodities will remain tight, and food prices, already soaring in most parts of the world, will remain elevated through yet another global crop cycle.Background&nbsp;A broad acceleration of food price inflation in the US has been underway since May 2020, around the beginning of the COVID lockdowns. Gro’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGLM2DqZ">US Food Price Index</a>, which reflects prices based on consumption of a wide range of food items, is up 30% from this time last year.&nbsp;<ul><li>The index’s increase signals a continuation of intense inflationary pressure on basic food necessities such as proteins and grains used in making a wide variety of packaged food products.&nbsp;</li><li>Rising US food prices have global impact, given the outsize role of the US in worldwide food and agricultural markets.&nbsp;</li><li>The <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-ag-price-index">Gro US Food Price Index</a> updates daily and provides an inflation estimate for the current month, which is up to six weeks ahead of when official US government data becomes available.&nbsp;</li></ul>The biggest drivers of US food price inflation are meat and poultry.&nbsp;<ul><li>Wholesale <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Vq6131NdW">US beef prices</a> rose 25% in 2021 from the previous year, while <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRDvQmzdV">poultry prices</a> doubled, putting sharp upward pressure on retail prices as well.&nbsp;</li><li>Since late December 2021, US pork cold storage levels fell to 21% below five-year average levels. As boneless hams require more labor to remove the bone, they were in even <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/VqeWwVZ9L">tighter supply.</a>&nbsp;</li></ul>Robust consumer demand as economies pick up steam is driving protein prices higher, while labor shortages have restricted protein processor production.&nbsp;<ul><li>Sharply higher animal feed costs have also pushed up protein prices.&nbsp;</li><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kqzK7blRW">Corn futures</a> prices are up 5.5% so far in 2022, and up 35% year over year. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gR80VG8Re">Soybean prices</a> have risen even more, gaining 17% so far in 2022 and 38% compared with last year.&nbsp;</li><li>Droughts in Brazil, Canada, and the US, along with unprecedented demand from China, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/o9vPWnKqb">tightened global supplies</a> of grains and oilseeds used in animal feed.&nbsp;</li></ul><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJpoBodV">Milk prices</a> are up 31% year over year, also due to higher feed costs.<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.58%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416385/new-website/image1_738b8a06c2.jpg"><figcaption>Wholesale chicken breast prices have soared amid lower supplies and rising feed costs, contributing to a 30% year-over-year jump in Gro’s US Food Price Index.</figcaption></figure>Higher Prices WorldwideVegetable oils are one of the most common commodities around the world, used widely in cooking and as ingredients in nearly every packaged food product. But as global <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1QMmKqW">vegetable oil supplies </a>tighten, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBojk9b">prices have risen</a> substantially for more than a year, hitting profit margins of packaged food manufacturers.&nbsp;<ul><li>Gro’s VegOil Feedstock Price Index, which tracks price changes in various edible oils, is up 41.8% in January from a year earlier.&nbsp;</li><li>The index is part of Gro’s newly launched <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/custom-price-indices">Custom Price Indices application</a>, which enables food manufacturers to create price indices of key ingredients, using customer-selected inputs and weights, and track inflationary pressures.</li></ul>Potato prices in the US are up 20% year over year, amid declining production and supply chain disruptions around the world.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-potato-production-decline-deepens-global-supply-shortage">US potato production</a> in 2021 was 7% below the five-year average as severe drought in several states resulted in the worst potato yields in years. The No. 1 producing state, Idaho, saw yields drop 9%.</li><li>Port disruptions and weak harvests created french fry shortages in markets from Japan to Kenya.</li><li>North American potato trade flows were curtailed after a potato wart outbreak prompted an export ban from Prince Edward Island, Canada’s largest potato producing province.</li></ul>Food inflation has taken hold worldwide, with year-over-year prices up 8% in Canada and 5% in Brazil, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1QB6vqW">Gro’s Food Price Indices for those countries</a>.&nbsp;<ul><li>Gro’s Brazil Food Price Index is close to its highest level ever, and is up 63% since the first set of COVID-related lockdowns in Brazil in May 2020.&nbsp;</li><li>Food price increases in Brazil have been exacerbated by the depreciation of the Real, which is down 15% over the past two years.</li></ul>Rising prices have prompted some countries to restrict commodity exports in order to maintain domestic supplies and quell food price inflation.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/indonesia-s-palm-oil-export-curbs-will-squeeze-global-supplies">Indonesia</a>, the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, announced curbs on palm oil exports.&nbsp;</li><li>Other countries, including <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/russia-ramps-up-wheat-export-restrictions">Russia</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/argentina-to-cap-corn-and-wheat-exports-amid-forecast-for-record-crops">Argentina</a>, have restricted grain exports.&nbsp;</li><li>Such measures could further tighten global supplies and create additional upward pressure for food prices.</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:74.72%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416608/new-website/image3_2e19cb459e.jpg"><figcaption>Tightening global supplies of vegetable oils, one of the most widely used commodities, have pushed prices sharply higher, hitting profit margins of packaged food manufacturers.&nbsp; Gro’s VegOil Feedstock Price Index, which tracks price changes in various edible oils, is up 41.8% in January from a year earlier.</figcaption></figure>Headed Into 2022: South America Drives Global MarketsBig agricultural producers Brazil and Argentina are headed for smaller harvests of major crops, especially corn, soybeans, and sugar, Gro’s machine-learning models show.&nbsp;<ul><li>The result will be a continuation of tight global supplies for many commodities.&nbsp;</li><li>Food prices, already soaring in most parts of the world, will remain elevated through yet another global crop cycle.&nbsp;</li><li>Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter. It is also the No. 1 producer and exporter of sugar and Arabica coffee.</li><li>Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal as well as a major supplier of corn to world markets.&nbsp;</li></ul>A return of the La Niña global climate event is bringing another year of drought to key growing regions in Argentina and southern Brazil.&nbsp;<ul><li><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAxMrgd4">Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a> currently indicates a sizable production decline.&nbsp;</li><li>Gro’s yield forecast models for <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0XbrqK">Argentina corn</a> and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NB6aD9b">soybeans</a> currently show both crops will be down by double-digit percentages year over year.</li><li>Gro’s forecasts for South America are based on our extensive platform of data analytics, indices, and machine-learning models that have proved to be more reliable than government estimates and are available weeks or months earlier than official reports.</li></ul>Gro’s new Strategic Assessment, “<a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/south-america-outlook-2022">2022: The Year South America Drives Global Agricultural Markets</a>,” which is available for download, offers an in-depth look at the current South American season’s prospects. &nbsp;<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75.04%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1644416573/new-website/image2_5f2440a6b3.jpg"><figcaption>A second consecutive year of drought in southern Brazil is depressing yields and production forecasts for the country’s big soybean crop, as shown via the Gro Drought Index. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans.</figcaption></figure>ConclusionYears of major agricultural product inventory reductions coupled with strong demand have led to rising food inflation worldwide. An expected shortfall in South American production this season could exacerbate global supply shortages, prolonging inflationary pressures for food well into the new year.&nbsp;US farmers can be expected to increase their total planted acreage of corn and soybeans, despite sharply elevated fertilizer prices, as crop shortfalls in South America prolong high commodity prices. But even a strong US harvest later this year won’t be sufficient to offset the damage already done to South American crops due to drought, Gro’s models show.&nbsp;The result will be a continuation of tight global supplies for many commodities and persistent food price inflation through yet another global crop cycle. Additional increases in food prices in 2022 will hit consumers and further squeeze profit margins for food manufacturing and merchandising companies worldwide.

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A Look at Rising Food Inflation

Gro’s CEO, Sara Menker, has joined the U.S. Agency for International Development’s re-established external advisory committee, the Advisory Committee on Voluntary Foreign Aid.&nbsp;As a ACVFA member, Ms. Menker will work alongside USAID officials and private and public sector representatives to strengthen the response “<a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/09-14-2022-usaid-re-establishes-advisory-committee-voluntary-foreign-aid">to development challenges overseas including climate change, the global food crisis, autocratization and corruption.”</a>The ACVFA’s membership represents a range of diverse leaders, brought together in their commitment to support the USAID’s efforts towards international development and humanitarian assistance.&nbsp;The Committee was appointed by the 19th Administrator of the USAID, Samantha Power, and will be chaired by Nisha Biswal, Senior Vice President for International Strategy and Global Initiatives at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.&nbsp;Tackling Climate Change and Food SecurityClimate change and food security remain two of our world’s biggest threats. As governments, humanitarian organizations, and businesses across the agricultural supply chain try to adapt to these current realities, they need timely and transparent data from trusted sources.&nbsp;Gro is committed to providing this data to help organizations see around the corner, enabling better, faster, and more informed decisions and coordinated emergency responses.At her briefing of the <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/blog/gro-s-ceo-sara-menker-briefs-the-united-nations-security-council">United Nations Security Council</a> on May 19, 2022, Ms. Menker said that “there is no version of the world where every country has all the natural resources it needs to survive and thrive. One key takeaway from our data is how often we see repeated examples of cause and effect, highlighting surprising connections and interdependencies.”&nbsp;About the U.S. Agency for International DevelopmentFollowing World War II, the ACVFA was established to serve as a bridge between the private sector and the U.S. Government to strengthen communication and solidarity in the provision of foreign aid.&nbsp;On a global scale, it provides humanitarian response and disaster relief by bringing together experts from the private sector, universities, international nongovernmental organizations, and USAID officials.The leading experts joining Ms. Menker as newly appointed Committee members are:&nbsp;<ul><li>Adriana Beltrán, Executive Director, Seattle International Foundation</li><li>Asma Lateef, Policy and Advocacy Lead for Agriculture, SDG2 Advocacy Hub</li><li>C.D. Glin, Global Head of Philanthropy, PepsiCo Inc. and Vice President, PepsiCo Foundation</li><li>Dan Twining, President, International Republican Institute</li><li>Derek Mitchell, President, National Democratic Institute</li><li>Eileen Donahoe, Executive Director, Global Digital Policy Incubator, Stanford University</li><li>Eka Tkeshelashvili, Director, Support to Anti-Corruption Champion Institutions (SACCI), MSI a Tetra Tech Company</li><li>&nbsp;Enock Chikava, Interim Director, Agricultural Development, Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation</li><li>Hibak Kalfan, Executive Director, NEAR Network</li><li>Levon Esters, Professor and Associate Dean for Diversity, Equity &amp; Inclusion and Faculty Affairs, Purdue Polytechnic Institute</li><li>Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, President, Association for Indigenous Women and Peoples of Chad (AFPAT)</li><li>Jeremy Weinstein, Professor of Political Science, Fisher Family Director of Stanford Global Studies, Stanford University</li><li>Johan Swinnen, Global Director of Systems Transformation at CGIAR, and Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)</li><li>Julie Dorf, Co-Chair, Council for Global Equality</li><li>Katherine Marshall, Professor of the Practice of Development, Conflict, and Religion in the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University</li><li>Kennedy Odede, CEO, Shining Hope for Communities&nbsp;</li><li>Kristin Lord, President and CEO, IREX</li><li>Liz Schrayer, President and CEO, US Global Leadership Coalition</li><li>Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Global Leader of Climate and Energy, World Wildlife Fund</li><li>Nadia Murad, Founder and Chairwoman, Nadia’s Initiative</li><li>Nisha Biswal, Senior Vice President, International Strategy and Global Initiatives, U.S. Chamber of Commerce</li><li>Olga Wall, CEO, Avallon Consulting LLC</li><li>Paul Weisenfield, Executive Vice President for International Development, RTI International</li><li>Rachel Kyte, Dean, Fletcher School at Tufts University</li><li>Saad Mohseni, Chairman and CEO, MOBY Group</li><li>Sanjay Pradhan, CEO, Open Government Partnerships</li><li>Teresa Barger, Co-Founder and CEO, Cartica</li></ul>Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:intel@gro-intelligence.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">intel@gro-intelligence.com</a> to speak to a member of our team.

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Gro’s CEO, Sara Menker, Joins the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Advisory Committee

This week, Senior Analyst Will Osnato spoke at the CFA Society Ukraine Agricultural Market Outlook. He walked through the global wheat and corn outlook, including production, trade and current stocks, and implications for Ukraine. This post has been edited to high-level takeaways.Although the conversation was wide-ranging, a few central themes drove his outlook - the interconnected and global dynamics, fertilizer and planted area, and impact of drought and climate factors.Drought in the US and Across RegionsThe heightened price reaction to the war was on the heels of an already tight wheat situation. He noted that, "Adverse weather in North America cut 20 million tonnes of spring wheat in 2021. Intense levels of drought, as seen via Gro’s Drought Index as early as April 2021 cut end of season production by 36% in Canada and 44% in the US northern plains."<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1663015611/new-website/Gro_Drought_Index_Spring_Wheat_Area_4_c3a0d13903.png"></figure>US hard red spring wheat ending stocks dropped to 3.1 million tonnes (or 113 million bushels), the lowest levels in 14 years.&nbsp;The Gro Drought Index can be used as a leading indicator of potential crop losses for any crop/region pairing, worldwide.Ukraine Corn and Wheat Crop and Vegetative Health"While the start of Ukrainian grain shipments is promising for its buyers, the flow of corn, wheat, and barley will still be lower than pre-war levels." Osnato described. "Production will be significantly lower following last year’s record crop because the war reduced planted acreage, while vegetative health has stayed closer to average."&nbsp;At Gro Intelligence, vegetative health is mapped by district and is the most direct way to see the impact of in-season growing conditions on projected yields. Looking at the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) maps side-by-side from 2021-2022, you can see that growing conditions are more mixed this year compared to the optimal conditions in 2021.,&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1663012305/new-website/NDVI_Difference_from_10_Year_Mean_2021_5d101bf1ef.png"></figure><figure class="image image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1663012328/new-website/NDVI_Difference_from_10_Year_Mean_2022_536c1c1047.png"></figure>Closing&nbsp;"In closing, the export corridor is obviously a big deal - with another 40 shipments this week, including ~600Kmt of agricultural products. The Ministry of Infrastructure thinks port shipments will increase to 3Mmt in September," he concluded."We will also be looking forward to winter wheat seeding. Ukraine area is forecast to decline again. Some private estimate are as high as 30-40% from the sharply reduced area this season due to lack of resources."

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Gro Intelligence's Will Osnato Speaking at CFA Society Ukraine Agricultural Market Outlook

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons, routinely rank among the most deadly - and costly - weather disasters. But arriving at a baseline indicator of risk is notoriously difficult, especially in places where assets are not typically insured and in other underserved regions like India and Madagascar.&nbsp;With strategic assets and investments across the globe, governments, financial institutions, and corporates increasingly need this physical climate risk data to sharpen climate resilience strategies, protect vulnerable populations, and limit hurricane risk-related losses. To that end, we have created and launched the Gro Climate Indicator (GCI) for Tropical Cyclone Risk, providing a highly accurate, globally consistent view of hurricane risk that supports decisions spanning large geographies.&nbsp;This indicator can be used alongside Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator to get visibility into any area or asset’s hurricane risk profile worldwide. With this information, users can see how specific populations, infrastructure, corporate assets, or crops might be affected by anything from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane.&nbsp;With Gro's Climate Indicator (GCI) for Tropical Cyclone Risk,<ul><li>Governments can reduce the effect of major disasters by billions of dollars, improve the effectiveness of policy to de-risk billion-dollar industries, and provide crucial funding for emergency routes &amp; centers. (In the US, where state and local governments are starting to apply for grants linked to the $1 trillion <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/">Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> that passed last November, this indicator's output can inform how to direct infrastructure spending, for example.)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Asset Managers can reduce portfolio volatility by several percentage points, save hundreds of thousands of dollars by diversifying risk and offloading risky assets, and save hundreds of hours of analyst &amp; legal time with instant access to the necessary datasets.</li><li>Food and Beverage companies can avoid risks, which could drive seasonal price volatility of 5% or greater, for their entire portfolio by analyzing every sourcing region globally.</li><li>Crop Insurance companies can save hundreds of thousands of dollars of potential losses, reduce crop insurance payment funding decisions from months or weeks to days, and reduce management and overhead costs by thousands of dollars.</li><li>Transportation companies can save hundreds of thousands of dollars on insurance and damages repair, reduce delays from weeks to days, and avoid hundreds of thousands of dollars in climate-resilience investment costs and site changes.</li></ul>Getting the ScoreThe GCI - Tropical Cyclone Risk produces a static risk score based on metrics of modeled risk that use historical hurricane data for each district (county) worldwide.&nbsp;It also offers users a broader distribution of possible outcomes and risk exposures, thereby adding relevant data that can be factored into institutions’ location-based hurricane risk assessments.&nbsp;The key risk metrics of modeled risk based on historical hurricane data that are available to all Gro API users through the GCI - Tropical Cyclone Risk include:&nbsp;<ul><li>Impact Frequency: Average number of storms per year over the selected time period and for the selected group of storm classifications.&nbsp;</li><li>Return Time: Average number of years between storms over the selected time period and for the selected group of storm classifications.&nbsp;</li><li>Impact Probability: Chance of at least one storm per year over the selected time period and for the selected group of storm classifications.</li></ul>For institutions, having a global, district-level view into hurricane risk aids acute physical climate risk analysis because it helps make combining hazard and location-specific exposure data possible using Gro’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Index, our index that measures the destructive energy of hurricane winds passing near each district in the world based on a common metric called <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html">Accumulated Cyclone Energy</a>.Tropical cyclones will be an important vehicle by which increases in extreme precipitation,&nbsp; worsening coastal flooding from rising sea levels, and other impacts of climate change are felt.&nbsp;The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in a report last August expressed “high confidence” that future tropical storms will be stronger under warmer temperatures. In this report, however, there was less agreement on what will happen to the overall number of tropical storms as temperatures rise. The IPCC climate experts only said that the number of storms is “likely” to either decrease or stay the same.&nbsp;To our in-house climate scientists, this suggests that present science doesn’t support making projections of risk metrics based on the frequency of tropical storm impacts. Therefore, we currently recommend using the GCI - Tropical Cyclone Risk as the best estimate of future risk under any climate scenario. However, we are examining ways to make future climate projections based on the aspects of tropical cyclone risk where there is greater confidence in the changes that regions face.<figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:75%;"><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/sFdH_hnqm8r9IwRt-jY1ExcluD9dhV7E4htUN3tk6MY05fQM5oJHAZeBlNANTe96ydgld7bbf3Yzk9TxttcZjL9H8DigLXIfYYODnAfr5j6Qj9KdoZ20TBMKzFQoy_VEWB31k-NpfkSxBmVzR1G5XGXUgXuS1t3EPEDl7ZUdlupJjTkI54wSneO11A"><figcaption>Thirty years ago, when Hurricane Andrew, one of only four Category 5 hurricanes to hit the US mainland, struck Miami-Dade County, Florida, a slight shift in weather conditions as the hurricane was approaching could have moved the storm’s track north, putting the city of Miami and Broward County more directly in the storm’s path. Even without this shift, Hurricane Andrew ranks as the 6th most expensive natural disaster in US history.&nbsp;</figcaption></figure><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Talk to our team</a> to see how the GCI - Tropical Cyclone Risk can be tailored to fit your organization's needs.&nbsp;

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Gro Goes Live With Global Hurricane Risk Assessment Tools

The US corn crop is in its critical pollination stage, and hot and dry conditions are weighing on yields. Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast Model is currently signaling the US will have one of the weakest corn harvests in years.&nbsp;As we continue to monitor the US corn crop, Gro Intelligence and DTN will be partnering again for a fifth annual <a href="https://spotlights.dtnpf.com/dyt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro x DTN Digital Yield Tour</a>. We will be tracking how the US corn and soybean crops are progressing so far this season.Beginning Monday, August 8th, we will bring a field-level view from the DTN team and a regional, global, and climate view from the Gro Platform to present you with comprehensive and on-the-ground reporting of national yield estimates.&nbsp;Leveraging Gro’s US Corn Yield Forecast ModelThe Gro US Corn Yield Forecast Model estimates in-season yields at the county, state, and national levels daily.&nbsp;Our model uses spatially explicit weather, vegetative health, and soil data to monitor environmental and crop conditions during the growing season. The model updates daily to continuously forecast final yield and help you better understand the effect of climate on crop yield and production.&nbsp;With Gro’s Yield Forecast Models, teams across industries can:&nbsp;<ul><li>Gauge crop availability and crop prices&nbsp;</li><li>Understand how weather impacts yields locally, regionally, and nationally</li><li>Inform other models focused on damage caused by pests and diseases&nbsp;</li><li>Monitor crop production, by tracking its most variable component, which is in-season yield</li><li>Make early forecasts of end-of-season yield in the US and across the Corn Belt, which produces 80%-85% of national corn</li></ul>Like all Gro models, the industry-leading US Corn Yield Forecast Model is built by our team of data scientists, agronomists, and industry experts. It is continually updated throughout the growing season, accurately providing the latest yield forecast weeks ahead of USDA estimates.Read more about the Yield Forecast Model <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-yield-model">here</a> or schedule a demonstration to learn how our Yield Model can be tailored to your organization’s needs <a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/schedule-a-demo">here</a>.

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Leveraging Gro’s Yield Forecast Models for the Gro x DTN 2022 Digital Yield Tour

We are living in volatile times — and both food security and climate change are at the center of it. It has never been more urgent for our systems and institutions to become more resilient so that we can address these challenges.&nbsp;Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, spoke with former US Treasury Secretary and Chairman of the Paulson Institute Hank Paulson on his podcast, Straight Talk, to discuss agricultural markets and food security as well as the impacts of climate change. They also spoke about how Gro is leveraging our platform to help financial institutions, companies, and public institutions measure and manage climate risk across various assets and asset classes.&nbsp;Listen to the full recording of their conversation on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCtT_D_cPmk">YouTube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0m2j0Kr3LiDc9Yj9ypThJM">Spotify</a>, or <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-67-sara-menker/id1526872168?i=1000569806869">Apple Podcasts</a>.&nbsp;Founding the Gro Platform Across Agriculture, Climate, and the EconomyGro Intelligence began building the Gro Platform in 2014 to answer core questions facing global agricultural systems. How do you predict supply, demand, and trade, and ultimately prices of every agricultural product on Earth every day? How can data and information drive systematic change in the industry?&nbsp;“If you think about what that means, that's not just for corn or wheat or soybeans or products that are traded on exchanges, but it's also for vanilla beans and black pepper and livestock and dairy,” Menker said. “It’s the full spectrum of the agricultural system.”&nbsp;The Gro Platform aims to provide unique analytics that help organizations understand the complex interrelationships between supply, climate, demand, and trade — the main factors driving price. Gro ingests large, disparate datasets from governments, satellites, and private companies for regions and crops worldwide. Included among the datasets are large amounts of environmental, weather, and future climate projection data.&nbsp;Gro then standardizes this data, enabling an understanding of the global system. Using machine learning and AI, Gro has built predictive models to provide actionable insights across agriculture, climate, and the economy. We also look at the past, the present, the immediate future and the long-term future to measure climate risks in agricultural supply chains.&nbsp;“Over eight years, we built a geospatially explicit framework to measure climate risk of any physical asset anywhere on Earth,” Menker said. “Through this very robust engine, we can really start looking at how to actually expand agriculture on the climate side, so that we can measure both the immediate as well as long-term climate risks for any type of institution that's managing any set of physical assets.”Solving Challenges Across IndustriesGro mixes and matches our models for different types of decisions by financial institutions, corporates, and public institutions.Financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies use Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/platform/models">Yield Forecast Models</a>, for example, to look at insurance policies or lending rates against agricultural products. Gro’s Yield Forecast Models estimate in-season yields at the county/district, state/province, and national levels on a daily basis for a variety of crops and regions worldwide.For a CPG company, our Yield Forecast Models can be leveraged for better procurement strategies. CPG companies also use our <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/applications/land-suitability-ranking">Land Suitability Model</a>, which looks at alternative regions where land and growing conditions are suitable for a crop’s growth.&nbsp;For governmental and multilateral organizations, our Platform helps clients better understand how to manage national food security risks, Menker explained.What to Monitor in GroRussia’s February invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the pressures on our agricultural systems, given the Black Sea region’s contributions to world food supplies — especially, wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizers. Gro closely monitors the impact of the Ukraine war on commodities and has created a <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-war-impact-on-global-agricultural-markets">resources page here</a> to help organizations navigate the unprecedented supply chain shocks.Persistent drought in many parts of the world — from East Africa to Western Europe and the US Midwest — also has weighed on global agricultural supplies and supply chains. <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/gro-drought-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Gro Drought Index</a> and Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture constantly track growing conditions worldwide to signal when drought events are impacting crop production.&nbsp;&nbsp;“That's a real shock and one that we have to still continue to manage. And it doesn't mean that if drought goes away, it goes back to normal. Our resilience factors have to be tweaked to how we think about inventories, how we think about our supply chains, because this is here to stay,” Menker said.Beyond drought, Gro’s <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/applications/climate-risk-navigator-for-agriculture">Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a> allows users to monitor growing conditions — including temperature, precipitation, as well as Gro’s indices for drought and vegetative health — highlighted for a specific crop’s planted area at the county/district, state/province, and national levels. The Navigator also can be weighted for demographic-based datasets to look at the effects of climate change on economies.&nbsp;“What always shocks me is the spatial distribution of outcomes on our platform of where the most affected regions are. The regions that are going to be most affected are the most populated regions in those countries. One of those affected areas is sub-Saharan Africa and the poverty rates are already very high,” Menker said.&nbsp;As governments, humanitarian organizations, and businesses across the agricultural supply chain try to adapt to these current realities, they need timely and transparent data from trusted sources. The Gro Platform is built to provide this data and help our customers see around the corner, enabling better, faster, and more informed decisions.Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> to speak to a member of our team or get a demonstration of our platform. &nbsp;

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Gro in Conversation With Former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson

Reduced consumption of fertilizers, driven by supply disruptions, high fertilizer prices, and broader impacts of the war in Ukraine on global trade and energy markets, are threatening global agricultural production and worsening food insecurity.Gro Intelligence’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor is the first tool to quantify the potential impact of fertilizer shortages on global crop production under different scenarios in a fully transparent way.&nbsp;Built with support from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, and in partnership with the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), an association which represents providers of plant nutrition solutions, and CRU Group (CRU), a leading independent authority on fertilizer, the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor is designed to help quantify the potential outcomes of the worldwide fertilizer crisis. It is free to anyone to use and can be found <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.In developing the Monitor, Gro modeled a total of seven different fertilizer application scenarios, based on application rate forecasts and scientific inputs from IFA and CRU Group. These include three scenarios from IFA’s recently published <a href="https://www.fertilizer.org/public/resources/publication_detail.aspx?SEQN=6198&amp;PUBKEY=C5D3054A-4F40-4FFD-8F1A-24AD36D4087D">Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook</a>; CRU Group’s application rate estimate; and three uniform global fertilizer reduction scenarios of 1%, 3%, and 5%.&nbsp;Gro modeled the projected changes in yield caused by a given change in nitrogen fertilizer application rates for a given country and crop. From yield, Gro derives a production change. We then aggregate this production change across four major crops–wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans–after converting production to calories. See more on our methodology <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/methodology">here</a>.Gro’s modeling indicates:<ul><li>IFA’s “middle ground” scenario - which factors in a partial resumption of fertilizer exports from the Black Sea region and a continued affordability squeeze - could lead to a global production loss of 53 trillion calories, equivalent to 0.60% of total global corn, wheat, rice, and soybean production.</li><li>CRU Group’s estimate points to a global production loss of 72 trillion calories, equal to 0.82% of worldwide production across these four crops.&nbsp;</li><li>IFA’s “pessimistic” scenario - which assumes an extended Russia-Ukraine conflict and continued Western sanctions, with falling affordability to farmers impacting their incentive to purchase fertilizers - results in a global production loss of 159 trillion calories, or 1.80% of total global corn, wheat, rice, and soybean production.</li></ul><figure class="image image-style-align-center image_resized" style="width:100%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1658857833/new-website/IFA_middle_ground_scenario_ecd1f1c508.png"><figcaption>In developing the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor, Gro modeled a total of seven different nitrogen fertilizer application scenarios, based on application rate forecasts and scientific inputs from the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and CRU Group. The above image is a snapshot of worldwide outcomes resulting from the IFA ‘middle ground’ scenario, with darker shades representing greater declines in crop production.</figcaption></figure>While the overall global impact of reduced nitrogen fertilizer applications is less severe than estimates by other sources had feared, the effects are not distributed equally. Production in some parts of the world will be hit harder as a result of fertilizer shortages than other regions.&nbsp;<ul><li>For Africa, removing what little fertilizer is traditionally applied has a disproportionate effect on crop production, resulting in food shortfalls that are being compounded by current drought levels.&nbsp;</li><li>In Kenya, for example, reduced fertilizer use could decrease crop production between 2.32% and 6.22%, depending on a range of the current most likely scenarios for how prolonged the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be and the availability and price of nitrogen-based fertilizers.&nbsp;</li><li>Other countries, such as Mexico, face a potential decline in production of between 2.78% and 4.56%, under various fertilizer scenarios. Mexico is a major corn producer, and a significant reduction in nitrogen application will negatively impact the country’s production of both corn and wheat.&nbsp;</li><li>France, Western Europe’s largest wheat producer, faces a similar situation, with tight fertilizer supplies resulting in a decline of between 2.41% and 4.66% in wheat production, depending on the scenario.&nbsp;</li></ul>These scenarios are based on forecasts exclusively for nitrogen fertilizer, the most widely used fertilizer type, and do not take into account other variables such as weather conditions, which can further impact production and yield. However, Gro’s in-season Yield Forecast Models account for these variables. Go to the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/about-outputs">About Outputs</a> page within the Monitor to see the difference.&nbsp;We welcome feedback and additional data to continue to improve the Fertilizer Impact Monitor and build on the work that we have done. Visit the Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/">here</a>.Please reach out to <a href="mailto:support@gro-intelligence.com">support@gro-intelligence.com</a> with any questions or to learn more about our platform.

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Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor: What Does the Data Tell Us?

Earlier this month, Gro’s SVP of Agribusiness, Jim Heneghan, joined a group of global agricultural experts and leaders at AgFunder and Intellias’ roundtable discussion on LinkedIn LIVE. Alongside Julia Poroshenko of Agrohub, Dmytro Lennyi of Intellias, Himanshu Gupta of ClimateAI, Dr. Simi Thambi of FAIRR, and Maryna Kuzmenko of Petiole, Heneghan spoke about building a resilient agricultural industry amid geopolitical conflict and changing climate conditions.<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtZoi5aHawE">Watch the full recording of the roundtable here</a>.Russia-Ukraine war adding fuel to the fireThe Russia-Ukraine war has driven extraordinary additional supply disruptions during a time of already highly uncertain and volatile global agricultural markets. Since 2020, the world has faced COVID-19 related labor shortages, droughts, and rising food and fertilizer prices.Russia and Ukraine used to provide nearly a third of the world’s wheat exports and are in the top five exporters of corn globally. Combined, they used to export 75% of global sunflower oil supplies. Now, all Ukrainian ports remain closed, blocking traditional grain movements and cutting off key grain supplies. Russian exports, which also include fertilizer, are limited because of Black Sea maritime hazards.The resulting food and hunger crisis calls for immediate global action.“It’s one of the most extreme, if not the most extreme [situations] I’ve seen in my career,” said Heneghan.&nbsp;An unprecedented confluence of contributing factorsSeveral major factors are contributing to the current food crisis. Fertilizer shortages, climate disruptions, record low inventories of key commodities, and logistical bottlenecks are occurring simultaneously and have already started to unravel decades of global economic progress. Data shows the food security challenges we face will last several years, as Gro Intelligence’s CEO, Sara Menker, noted in her briefing to the United Nations Security Council last month.&nbsp;“The confluence of successive droughts, successive supply [chain] shocks, now a war, now fertilizer reduction in areas that produce the most and feed the world,” Heneghan said. “Stakeholders in the world need to be fully on this because it’s nothing like we’ve seen before.”“I think there are some glimmers of hope,” Heneghan added. “La Nina breaking to some degree, US crops getting in the ground…there are some areas of better prospects. But we’re already coming off multi-year problems in the global supply of these products.”Building a resilient ag industry with comprehensive global dataData fills coverage gaps and connects seemingly disconnected issues, clarifying the path forward. During times of war or increasingly volatile climate conditions, deeper visibility and wider knowledge are vital to strategic planning. Access to trusted data helps governments, humanitarian organizations, and companies worldwide fully understand food security related risks and outcomes and identify the countries most at risk for food insecurity.&nbsp;“When we had a surge in global food prices and we had issues in 2007 and 2008 - wheat, rice, globally - and even Arab Spring times in ‘11 and ‘12, the difference versus today is we’re onto the problems and situations and running the calculations so much better than we did back then,” Heneghan said. “So stakeholders recognize the magnitude of the problem much better now than they did a decade or more ago.”While we live in an increasingly fragile, interconnected global food system, with accurate information and coordinated global effort, it is possible to build a healthy global economy and secure food system.“Through technology, the answer can’t be ‘I didn’t know about it.’ Yes you can get the transparency on it through what we’re doing and what others here on this panel have done,” Heneghan said. “That speed to solution will be so much more beneficial on top of things, and you can avert big problems that might have occurred.”&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtZoi5aHawE">Watch the full recording of the roundtable here</a>.See how the Gro platform can help your team navigate these pressing challenges by <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/contact">reaching out to us here</a>.As part of a broader response to this crisis, Gro Intelligence is collaborating with The Rockefeller Foundation to make real-time agricultural data on African countries publicly available to all. With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, Gro Intelligence has launched the Food Security Tracker for Africa, the first publicly available interactive tool that shows the supply and demand of corn, soy, wheat, and rice for 49 African countries. Visit the <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa">Food Security Tracker for Africa here</a>.

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