Since our last commentary, our 2017 US corn yield forecast has continued to update daily on our data platform, Gro. Below is an update on its weekly progress:
Archive of our weekly commentary on our US corn yield model forecast
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has dropped slightly again from 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha) to 172.6 bu/ac (or 10.83 t/ha). USDA validated the model’s bearish tendency in yesterday’s WASDE. Knowing our model as we do, we don’t expect any further significant changes in our estimate. Therefore, we will end this series of comments for 2017, barring an unexpectedly large change in the model estimate or some other notable event.
Thank you for your interest in Gro’s US corn yield model. The estimate will continue to update daily on our data platform. Subscribers currently have access to an Argentine soy model built with the same methodology. They will also see our forthcoming machine-learning-based models of other interesting area/crop combinations. Please don’t hesitate to post on our yield model forum with any questions or contact us at email@example.com if you’re interested in learning more about our forecasts or data platform.
[October 12, 2017 Update]
We’re gratified to see the USDA’s corn yield estimate move up 70 percent of the way to our lonely outlier call of 172.7 bu/ac. In today’s WASDE report, yield moved up from 169.9 to 171.8. The highest trade estimate was 171.5, and the average was 170.1. Looking forward, our bearish call stands, as we’re still 0.9 bu/ac higher than the USDA. It almost goes without saying that we’re proud of our model and think it has performed very well in its second live year.
[October 4, 2017 Commentary]
The Gro Intelligence US corn yield model estimate has fallen slightly for the second week in a row, from 172.9 bu/ac (or 10.85 t/ha) to 172.7 bu/ac (or 10.84 t/ha). The model is likely to be stabilizing near its final value for the year, since satellite greenness indicators have peaked and harvest is well under way. Our estimate remains significantly higher than USDA’s and the general trade consensus. The model is therefore bearish on prices, expecting another increase in USDA’s yield at the 12 October World Agricultural Supply/Demand Report (WASDE). While our model will continue to update on our subscription-based software (Gro), barring an event of interest, we will issue the next and last model value writeup for 2017 after the October report.
For the first time in nine weeks, the Gro US corn yield model’s estimated value has fallen slightly, from 173.0 bu/ac (or 10.86 tonnes/hectare) to 172.9 bu/ac (or 10.85). The change occurred due to similarly small changes in satellite greenness indications. This is effectively an unchanged result. Accordingly, our view remains bearish on corn prices, calling for a yield higher than either the USDA, the general trade consensus, or the long term trend.
Gro’s US corn yield model has risen yet again, for the eighth consecutive week, to 173.0 bushels/acre (or 10.86 tonnes/hectare) from 172.0 (or 10.80). The main drivers again are satellite greenness indicators and crop condition scores. Other states are making up for increasing dryness in Iowa, as shown in the map of evapotranspiration (below). Somewhat uncomfortably, Gro has become an outlier on the bearish side at this point. It should be acknowledged, however, that our non-consensus bearish view before the September WASDE was correct.
[September 12, 2017 Update]
The USDA has come out with its September WASDE report, and it has raised its US corn yield estimate from 169.5 bushels/acre to 169.9. This flew in the face of an average trade expectation of 168.2, but moved USDA closer to Gro’s 172 bushels/acre. Traders who acted on the Gro model’s bearish estimate before the report are enjoying favorable price action today.
[September 11, 2017 Commentary]
Gro’s US corn yield model moved higher for the seventh consecutive time over the past week, moving from 170.6 bushels/acre (or 10.71 tonnes/hectare) to 172.0 (or 10.80). Gro’s forecast is solidly bigger than USDA’s and above consensus trend yield. Satellite greenness indicators have passed their seasonal peaks in most of the Corn Belt. As a result, crop condition scores have become more important factors in the model. Increases in good-to-excellent ratings in Iowa and Illinois outweighed deterioration elsewhere. Gro’s model remains on the price-bearish side of the market going into tomorrow’s USDA Supply/Demand report.
Gro’s US corn yield model rose again over the past week, moving from 169.9 bushels/acre (or 10.66 tonnes/hectare) to 170.6 (or 10.71). Now Gro’s forecast is solidly bigger than USDA’s and above consensus trend yield. The price-bearishness of the model has again been driven by satellite data showing greening in the Corn Belt. Unlike last week, which featured improvement in areas which had performed poorly so far, these were scattered around the growing region.
Gro’s US corn yield model jumped significantly higher over the past week, rising from 167.5 bushels/acre (or 10.51 tonnes/hectare) to 169.9 (or 10.66). For the first time this season, Gro’s forecast is bigger than USDA’s and near the trend. Most of the credit for the improvement goes to satellite data (NDVI) showing rapid greening of the South Dakota crop, which previously had provoked concern due to its poor condition.
This development coincides with Gro’s yield modeler’s participation in the 2017 Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour. The Tour samples crops between Ohio and Minnesota on the eastern leg and between South Dakota and Minnesota by way of Nebraska on the western leg. Most crop scouts expressed surprise at the high yields they saw. Using the Tour results as input, Pro Farmer issued a national yield forecast of 167.1 bushels/acre. Formerly bullish scouts saw the number as bearish relative to their expectations even though it came in well below USDA.
Gro’s US corn yield model continues to edge higher as the price of corn moves lower. Our latest estimate has come in at 167.5 bushels/acre (or 10.51 tonnes/hectare), up from the 166.8 (or 10.47) issued prior to the USDA’s WASDE report, which was at 169.5 (or 10.64). Improving satellite vegetation greenness images (NDVI) and improving crop condition scores have driven our estimate’s consecutive increases.
Gro’s chief yield modeler will be working as a crop scout for the Farm Journal Eastern Midwest Crop Tour next week. For updates from the fields, please post questions related to the Tour in the Yield Model Forum.
[August 11, 2017 Update]
Yesterday, the USDA released its August estimate for US corn yield at 169.5 bushels/acre, down 1.2 bushels/acre from the earlier estimate of 170.7. With market expectations near 166, and Gro’s model at 166.8, this number was indisputably bearish. Corn futures prices reacted by dropping 4% in short order. From this new lower price level, Gro’s model remains bullish, currently calling for a further 2.7 bushels/acre decline before harvest.
[August 9, 2017 Commentary]
Gro’s US corn yield forecast stands at 166.80 bushels/acre (or 10.47 tonnes/hectare), up from 164.33 (or 10.31) last week and just in time for the important August 10th USDA report tomorrow. The increase in our forecast was mainly driven by signals indicating stronger crop health across the US Corn Belt.
Our model’s increase flies in the face of declining condition averages, and probably means that our yield estimate is now higher than trade opinion for the first time this year. We believe that the majority of corn market participants use a simple linear method for estimating yield using the percent good-to-excellent conditions survey number as input. While Gro’s model takes the surveys into account, it is one of several signals used in our model.
This puts our model in an unclear status, neither particularly bullish nor bearish right now, since we are still below the USDA’s current number, but above the trade opinion. Our trading advice for the report at 1200 EDT on 10 August: bearish if USDA yield is above our number (166.80), bullish if it’s below, very bullish if below 163.
What Information Do We Collect?
The information we gather enables us to personalize, improve and continue to operate the Services. We collect the following types of information from our users.
IP Address Information and Other Information Collected Automatically:
· We automatically receive and record information from your web browser when you interact with the Services, including your IP address and cookie information. This information is used for fighting spam/malware and also to facilitate collection of data concerning your interaction with the Services (e.g., what links you have clicked on).
· Generally, the Services automatically collect usage information, such as the number and frequency of visitors to the Site. We may use this data in aggregate form, that is, as a statistical measure, but not in a manner that would identify you personally. This type of aggregate data enables us and third parties authorized by us to figure out how often individuals use parts of the Services so that we can analyze and improve them.
Information Collected Using Cookies:
· Most browsers have an option for turning off the cookie feature, which will prevent your browser from accepting new cookies, as well as (depending on the sophistication of your browser software) allowing you to decide on acceptance of each new cookie in a variety of ways.
We collect statistical information about how users collectively use the Services (“Aggregate Information”). Some of this information may be derived from Personal Information. This statistical information is not Personal Information and cannot be tied back to you or your web browser.
How, and With Whom, Is My Information Shared?
IP Address Information:
Information You Elect to Share:
We share Aggregate Information with our partners, service providers and other persons with whom we conduct business. We share this type of statistical data so that our partners can understand how and how often people use our Services and their services or websites, which facilitates improving both their services and how our Services interface with them. In addition, these third parties may share with us non-private, aggregated or otherwise non Personal Information about you that they have independently developed or acquired.
Information Shared with Our Agents:
We employ and contract with people and other entities that perform certain tasks on our behalf and who are under our control (our “Agents”). We may need to share Personal Information with our Agents in order to provide products or services to you. Unless we tell you differently, our Agents do not have any right to use Personal Information or other information we share with them beyond what is necessary to assist us. You hereby consent to our sharing of Personal Information with our Agents.
Information Disclosed Pursuant to Business Transfers:
In some cases, we may choose to buy or sell assets. In these types of transactions, user information is typically one of the transferred business assets. Moreover, if we, or substantially all of our assets, were acquired, or if we go out of business or enter bankruptcy, user information would be one of the assets that is transferred or acquired by a third party. You acknowledge that such transfers may occur, and that any acquirer of us or our assets may continue to use your Personal Information as set forth in this policy.
Information Disclosed for Our Protection and the Protection of Others:
Information We Share With Your Consent:
Except as set forth above, you will be notified when your Personal Information may be shared with third parties, and will be able to prevent the sharing of this information.
Is Information About Me Secure?
We store all of our information, including your IP address information, using industry-standard techniques. We do not guarantee or warrant that such techniques will prevent unauthorized access to information about you that we store, Personal Information or otherwise.
What Information of Mine Can I Access?
You can access and delete cookies through your web browser settings.
California Privacy Rights: Under California Civil Code sections 1798.83-1798.84, California residents are entitled to ask us for a notice identifying the categories of personal customer information which we share with our affiliates and/or third parties for marketing purposes, and providing contact information for such affiliates and/or third parties. If you are a California resident and would like a copy of this notice, please submit a written request to the following address: 12 E 49th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10017
What If I Have Questions or Concerns?
If you have any questions or concerns regarding privacy using the Services, please send us a detailed message to firstname.lastname@example.org. We will make every effort to resolve your concerns.
Effective Date: March 11, 2014
b. You shall not (directly or indirectly):i. take any action that imposes or may impose (as determined by us in our sole discretion) an unreasonable or disproportionately large load on our (or our third party providers’) infrastructure; ii. interfere or attempt to interfere with the proper working of the Services or any activities conducted on the Services; iii. bypass, circumvent or attempt to bypass or circumvent any measures we may use to prevent or restrict access to the Services (or other accounts, computer systems or networks connected to the Services); iv. use manual or automated software, devices, or other processes to “crawl” or “spider” any page of the Site;
v. harvest or scrape any Content from the Services;
vi. otherwise take any action in violation of our guidelines and policies;vii. decipher, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer or otherwise attempt to derive any source code or underlying ideas or algorithms of any part of the Services (including without limitation any application), except to the limited extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction; viii. modify, translate, or otherwise create derivative works of any part of the Services; or ix. copy, rent, lease, distribute, or otherwise transfer any of the rights that you receive hereunder. c. We also reserve the right to access, read, preserve, and disclose any information as we reasonably believe is necessary to: i. satisfy any applicable law, regulation, legal process or governmental request; ii. enforce these Terms of Service, including investigation of potential violations hereof;
iii. detect, prevent, or otherwise address fraud, security or technical issues;
iv. respond to user support requests; or
v. protect the rights, property or safety of us, our users and the public.4. Third Party Services. The Services may permit you to link to other websites, services or resources on the Internet, and other websites, services or resources may contain links to the Services. When you access third party resources on the Internet, you do so at your own risk. These other resources are not under our control, and you acknowledge that we are not responsible or liable for the content, functions, accuracy, legality, appropriateness or any other aspect of such websites or resources. The inclusion of any such link does not imply our endorsement or any association between us and their operators. You further acknowledge and agree that we shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any such content, goods or services available on or through any such website or resource. 5. Termination. We may terminate your access to all or any part of the Services at any time, with or without cause, with or without notice, effective immediately. All provisions of these Terms of Service which by their nature should survive termination shall survive termination, including, without limitation, ownership provisions, warranty disclaimers, indemnity and limitations of liability. 6. Warranty Disclaimer. a. You release us from all liability for you having acquired or not acquired Content through the Services. We make no representations concerning any Content contained in or accessed through the Services, and we will not be responsible or liable for the accuracy, copyright compliance, or legality of material or Content contained in or accessed through the Services. b. THE SERVICES AND CONTENT ARE PROVIDED “AS IS”, “AS AVAILABLE” AND WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF TITLE, NON-INFRINGEMENT, MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND ANY WARRANTIES IMPLIED BY ANY COURSE OF PERFORMANCE OR USAGE OF TRADE, ALL OF WHICH ARE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMED. WE, AND OUR DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, SUPPLIERS, PARTNERS AND CONTENT PROVIDERS DO NOT WARRANT THAT: (I) THE SERVICES WILL BE SECURE OR AVAILABLE AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME OR LOCATION; (II) ANY DEFECTS OR ERRORS WILL BE CORRECTED; (III) ANY CONTENT AVAILABLE AT OR THROUGH THE SERVICES IS FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS; OR (IV) THE RESULTS OF USING THE SERVICES WILL MEET YOUR REQUIREMENTS. 7. Limitation of Liability. IN NO EVENT SHALL WE, NOR OUR DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AGENTS, PARTNERS, SUPPLIERS OR CONTENT PROVIDERS, BE LIABLE UNDER CONTRACT, TORT, STRICT LIABILITY, NEGLIGENCE OR ANY OTHER LEGAL OR EQUITABLE THEORY WITH RESPECT TO THE SERVICES FOR ANY (I) LOST PROFITS, DATA LOSS, COST OF PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES, OR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, COMPENSATORY OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER, SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR SERVICES (HOWEVER ARISING), (II) BUGS, VIRUSES, TROJAN HORSES, OR THE LIKE (REGARDLESS OF THE SOURCE OF ORIGINATION), OR (III) DIRECT DAMAGES IN EXCESS OF $50.00. 8. Governing Law and Jurisdiction. These Terms of Service shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of New York, including its conflicts of law rules, and the United States of America. You agree that any dispute arising from or relating to the subject matter of these Terms of Service shall be governed by the exclusive jurisdiction and venue of the state and Federal courts of New York County, New York. 9. Miscellaneous. a. Modification. We reserve the right, in our sole discretion, to modify or replace any of these Terms of Service, or change, suspend, or discontinue the Services at any time. Your continued use of the Services following notification of any changes to these Terms of Service constitutes acceptance of those changes. b. Entire Agreement and Severability. These Terms of Service are the entire agreement between you and us with respect to the Services, including use of the Site, and supersede all prior or contemporaneous communications and proposals (whether oral, written or electronic) between you and us with respect to the Services. If any provision of these Terms of Service is found to be unenforceable or invalid, that provision will be limited or eliminated to the minimum extent necessary so that these Terms of Service will otherwise remain in full force and effect and enforceable. The failure of either party to exercise in any respect any right provided for herein shall not be deemed a waiver of any further rights hereunder c. Force Majeure. We shall not be liable for any failure to perform our obligations hereunder where such failure results from any cause beyond our reasonable control, including, without limitation, mechanical, electronic or communications failure or degradation. d. Assignment. These Terms of Service are personal to you, and are not assignable, transferable or sublicensable by you except with our prior written consent. We may assign, transfer or delegate any of our rights and obligations hereunder without consent. e. Agency. No agency, partnership, joint venture, or employment relationship is created as a result of these Terms of Service and neither party has any authority of any kind to bind the other in any respect. f. Notices. Unless otherwise specified in these Term of Service, all notices under these Terms of Service will be in writing and will be deemed to have been duly given when received, if personally delivered or sent by certified or registered mail, return receipt requested; when receipt is electronically confirmed, if transmitted by facsimile or e-mail; or the day after it is sent, if sent for next day delivery by recognized overnight delivery service. Electronic notices should be sent to email@example.com g. No Waiver. Our failure to enforce any part of these Terms of Service shall not constitute a waiver of our right to later enforce that or any other part of these Terms of Service. Waiver of compliance in any particular instance does not mean that we will waive compliance in the future. In order for any waiver of compliance with these Terms of Service to be binding, we must provide you with written notice of such waiver through one of our authorized representatives. h. Headings. The section and paragraph headings in these Terms of Service are for convenience only and shall not affect their interpretation. Contact. You may contact us at the following address: 12 E 49th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10017.