Global Grains Supplies Will be Strained in 2018/19

The International Grains Council (IGC) estimated last week that world grains supplies will be tight in 2018/19. This projection is driven by increasing global demand that will place the ending stocks to use ratio at a five year low. Total worldwide grains production including soybeans, rice, wheat, corn and other coarse grains is forecast at 2.087 billion tonnes, down from 2.092 billion tonnes last year. Ending inventories are forecast at a four year low of 560 million tonnes, an eight percent drop from 606 million tonnes in 2017/18.

Global corn production is up seven million tonnes from last year and forecast to reach 1.05 billion tonnes. However, consumption in 2018 will increase by 20 million tonnes from 2017 to 1.09 billion tonnes. Wheat production is projected to decrease from 758 million tonnes in 2017 to 741 million tonnes, but demand might exceed supply at 744 million tonnes. World soybean production is forecast to reach 354 million tonnes, increasing from last year’s total output of 341 million tonnes. Demand is also expected to grow, increasing from 347 million tonnes in 2017/18 to 358 million tonnes this year.

Growing demand for these key commodities will strain production as global consumption creeps closer to ending stocks. Gro Intelligence subscribers can analyze an array of global grains data to predict market trends and future production implications.