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Gro Intelligence works with seed, fertilizer, and corporate agribusiness companies to forecast product demand from a regional or global perspective.

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Forecast US state and regional planting intentions to forecast product demand and sales.

Estimate how many US corn and soybean acres will be prevented from being planted to assess impact on earnings.

Forecast crop production for regions around the world by monitoring Gro's daily updating yield estimates. 

 Gain insights into the economics behind producers’ planting decisions.

Forecast product demand and sales both regionally and globally

Monitor drought in key regions for early warning signs of how drought may impact crop production, supplies, prices, and farmer income.

View details about various crops according to growth, climate, weather, and energy conditions.

Assess the impact of fall armyworms on yield.

Predict shifts in commodity prices based on changing demand for pork and the consequent demand for high-protein feed.

Incorporate long-term climate and pest impact into R&D and sales strategies

Features designed to integrate into your workflow.

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Two consecutive La Niña years have depressed world food supplies and driven commodity prices higher. Now, the US Climate Prediction Center is warning that the disruptive global weather event is likely to return for a third year, a rare occurrence that has happened only twice in the past 70 years.&nbsp;La Niña conditions for a third year in a row could have far-reaching effects on global agriculture by triggering large shifts in weather. La Niña tends to create drought and dry conditions in many parts of the world, including Brazil, Argentina, and the US, while bringing additional precipitation to other areas, such as Australia.&nbsp;Current dry conditions in Argentina’s northern provinces are reducing acreage planted to wheat. A continuation of La Niña could hinder the crop’s yield development in the key months of September and October. Argentina is the biggest South American producer and exporter of wheat and accounts for about 8% of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kR0gvXoqz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global wheat exports</a>. La Niña previously caused substantial soybean losses in Argentina during the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons.Brazil corn and soybeans also could suffer from a return of La Niña in late 2022 and early 2023. A <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/7qb7DAlRX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro analysis</a> shows that La Niña correlates strongly with increased levels of drought and reduced corn yields in Brazil, the world’s No. 2 corn exporter.&nbsp;This past year, Brazil’s southern states experienced “severe” levels of drought, as shown by the Gro Drought Index, weighted for soybean acres using <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/10417,Mato%20Grosso%20do%20Sul:10424,Rio%20Grande%20do%20Sul:10406,Paran%C3%A1$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Soybeans%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil:10417,Mato%20Grosso%20do%20Sul" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>. Soybean yields dropped by double digits year over year, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAxMrgd4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a>.&nbsp;US hard red winter wheat (HRW), currently being harvested, also suffered from dry conditions brought on by La Niña. Amid one of the worst <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp3Kwq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">droughts</a> since 2014, farmers in Kansas and Texas will abandon a substantial portion of their HRW wheat crops, <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/drought-ravaged-southern-plains-wheat-abandoned-acres-to-soar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro data shows</a>. And Gro’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRnmJ0PqY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">yield forecast model</a> is pointing to a double-digit decline in HRW yields.&nbsp;&nbsp;Australia, on the other hand, is poised for a third year of strong <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0BjXqK" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat </a>production in 2022 as good weather boosts planting across its grain belt. While it is too early to estimate the size of the 2022/23 crop, which will be harvested at the end of the year, conditions so far are superior to last year, as shown by <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1013,Australia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:13,Oceania:1013,Australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>, weighted for Australian wheat acres.&nbsp;Australia produced a record 36 million tonnes of wheat in 2021/22 and was the world’s third-largest <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVMGml9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat exporter</a>, shipping largely to China, Indonesia, and other Asian buyers.New crop prospects can be monitored using Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dX12DBq5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Australia Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a>, which will provide daily updates of yield estimates once the crop emerges from dormancy in August.&nbsp;The US Climate Prediction Center’s latest forecast shows that La Niña conditions are likely to return for a third-consecutive Northern Hemisphere winter in 2023. The CPC said most climate models predict a weakening of La Niña conditions by late summer, followed by a 58%-59% chance of La Niña strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter. The last time La Nina was in place for three years in a row was from 1998 to 2001.&nbsp;La Niña conditions are currently in place, according to the CPC’s <a href="https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oceanic Niño Index</a>, which is calculated based on ocean temperatures in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean. A separate index called the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/8kR074Mqz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Multivariate ENSO Index</a>, which is available on Gro's web portal, also indicates La Niña is in effect — negative values indicate La Niña conditions while positive values point to El Niño conditions. The Multivariate ENSO Index includes additional variables such as sea level pressure.-Related Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/global-wheat-supplies-face-new-threats-as-drought-levels-rise-gro-s-model-shows" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Global Wheat Supplies Face New Threats as Drought Levels Rise, Gro’s Model Shows</a><a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">(Whitepaper) Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-is-back-what-that-means-for-north-and-south-american-crops" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña Is Back—What That Means for North and South American Crops</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-brings-drought-to-east-africas-key-grain-producing-countries" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña Brings Drought to East Africa’s Key Grain Producing Countries</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-brings-dryness-to-argentine-wheat-cutting-production-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña Brings Dryness to Argentine Wheat, Cutting Production Outlook</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-ninas-mixed-blessing-for-australia-a-90-jump-in-wheat-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña's Mixed Blessing: For Australia, a 90% Jump in Wheat Production</a>&nbsp; &nbsp;

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La Niña Is Forecast to Impact Global Agriculture for a Third Year in a Row

Many corn farmers in the US northern Plains are being forced to decide whether to forgo planting a significant portion of their crop because of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmBPWJq7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">saturated soils</a>.&nbsp;Corn farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota are well behind on planting due to heavy snow, followed by rain in April and now spring flooding. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57zy4R0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Prevent Plant Forecast Model for corn</a> predicts these states are vulnerable to getting substantially fewer acres planted than originally intended. Farmers generally carry insurance for acreage that is prevented from being planted.&nbsp;This year’s overly wet conditions contrast with 2021, when the region instead suffered drought that depressed corn yields. In North Dakota, for example, corn yields last year slumped 24% from a year earlier. <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/13085,North%20Dakota$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Corn%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States:13085,North%20Dakota" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>, weighted to focus on North Dakota’s corn growing areas, highlights the sharp differences in Gro Drought Index readings and soil moisture levels between this year and last.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1652821632/new-website/Daily_Soil_Moisture_for_North_Dakota_Corn_Growing_Areas_a1ee88027c.png"><figcaption>Sodden soils this year (blue line) contrast with excessive dryness in 2021 (red line), as shown by this chart from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator, weighted for corn-growing areas in North Dakota. This year’s wet conditions could reduce acres planted to corn.</figcaption></figure>Prevent-plant estimates are important because they have a direct effect on final production numbers. Prevent plant also can cause a shift of acreage away from corn and into soybeans, which are planted later.&nbsp;Gro’s Prevent Plant models, for both <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-prevent-plant" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US corn</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-soy-prevent-plant" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybeans</a>, update daily and forecast which areas of the US Midwest are likely to have planting problems because of overly wet soil. The machine learning-based models combine data on soil moisture, precipitation, soil surveys, and other variables, including USDA crop-planting progress reports, to estimate the number of acres prevented from being planted at the county and national levels well in advance of the USDA’s initial prevent-plant report in mid-August.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp2D4q3">US corn acreage</a> was already slated to drop by 4% this year, the lowest level since 2019, as farmers turn to <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less fertilizer-intensive crops</a> such as soybeans. Further declines in corn production will tighten the US corn balance sheet at a time when every bushel counts because of squeezed global supplies and higher prices brought on by the Russia-Ukraine war.Only <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3LvndD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">49% of the US corn crop</a> was planted as of May 15. That’s the slowest pace since the much wetter year of 2019 when only 30% of the crop was planted at this time. While US planting progress jumped in the past week, pockets of heavy delays are still present.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwBA9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">North Dakota corn planting</a> remains stalled at 4% compared with a 5-year average of 41%, as eastern counties in the state show some of the highest ever soil moisture readings for this time of year. In South Dakota, 31% of the corn crop is planted versus a 54% average, and in Minnesota the pace is 35% versus an average of 72%.&nbsp;The last year of significant prevent-plant corn acreage was 2019, when 8.5 million acres, or nearly 10% of the planned corn crop, wasn’t planted because of overly wet conditions.-Related Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/corn-prices-rise-as-prospects-weaken-for-brazil-us-crops" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Corn Prices Rise as Prospects Weaken for Brazil, US Crops</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/epa-plan-for-higher-ethanol-blends-will-boost-us-corn-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">EPA Plan for Higher Ethanol Blends Will Boost US Corn Demand</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/gro-predicts-us-corn-stocks-will-drop-sharply-in-2022-23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Predicts US Corn Stocks Will Drop Sharply in 2022/23</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">High Fertilizer Prices Drive US Farmers to Plant More Soy Than Corn</a> &nbsp;

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US Corn Crop at Risk of Substantial Prevent-Plant Acreage, Gro’s Model Predicts

Tight global wheat supplies could get a needed boost as Canadian farmers are expected to sharply increase acreage for spring planting. A robust crop in Canada, the world’s biggest producer of spring wheat, would help alleviate worldwide shortages sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;Acreage for the spring wheat crop, which makes up the bulk of Canada’s total wheat production, is forecast to increase by 6.7% year over year to 7.1 million hectares, Statistics Canada projects. The expansion will lift Canada’s total wheat area to its <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwxJ9b">highest level</a> in nine years.&nbsp;Severe drought last year caused Canadian <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/rdrBYyrdZ">spring wheat production</a> to plunge 38%, which helped lead to today’s tightness in global wheat supplies. Currently, Gro’s Drought Index weighted for wheat-growing regions in Canada shows conditions are <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1037,Canada$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1037,Canada">significantly less dry</a> than last year in Canada’s wheat-growing areas, although soil moisture levels are about on par with last year.<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1651009640/new-website/Gro_Drought_Index_for_Canadas_Wheat_Growing_Areas_cd85b07650.png"><figcaption>Intense drought in Canada’s wheat-growing regions last year, shown by the green line, dragged down wheat production. Current conditions, blue line, are considerably less dry, according to Gro’s Drought Index.</figcaption></figure>Planting for the spring crop will get underway in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9N73Z7db">May,</a> and Gro users can monitor its progress using Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd33Ejrdo">Canada Spring Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a>, which updates daily.&nbsp;Soaring <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRL7prVqp">wheat prices</a> worldwide are likely behind the increased wheat acreage, which is edging out <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwxJ9b">other crops</a> such as barley and dry peas. Canola planted area also is expected to decline, despite high oilseed prices, as farmers favor cereal crops. Oat acres are projected to increase 18%, and corn, lentils, and soybean acreage also will expand.&nbsp;In the US, spring wheat planting is getting off to a <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3AKWdD">slow start</a> as unseasonal storms blanket the northern Plains with snow. However, the snowfall has helped alleviate the region’s dry conditions. Similar to Canada, last year’s US spring wheat production slumped 44% because of drought.&nbsp;The US winter wheat crop has emerged from dormancy amid <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp3Kwq3">dry conditions</a> in the southern Plains. Crop conditions, measured by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/8kR0GrVqz">good-excellent winter wheat ratings</a>, are the worst for this time of the season in 26 years, and Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2pd4gOA9j">US Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a> continues to sink due to hot and dry conditions.-Related Insights<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/setbacks-for-us-wheat-crops-signal-lower-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Setbacks for US Wheat Crops Signal Lower Production</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/whitepaper-russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/russia-enacts-partial-ban-on-grain-exports-in-another-hit-to-global-wheat-supplies" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia Enacts Partial Ban on Grain Exports in Another Hit to Global Wheat Supplies</a> &nbsp;

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Higher Canada Wheat Acreage Could Boost Global Grain Supplies

Corn futures are trading <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2daE2xzdn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">close to their all-time highs</a> as prospects darken for Brazil’s corn crop, US corn planting gets off to a slow start, and the Russia-Ukraine war rages on.&nbsp;In the US, cool and wet weather across the Midwest has delayed early corn planting. <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Corn%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_1?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a> application, weighted to US corn growing areas, shows the coldest temperatures in at least 20 years. US corn planting is just <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3LvndD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">4% complete</a> this week, versus a five-year average of 6%.In Brazil, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdo6bOy9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">favorable early conditions</a> for the second corn crop, or safrinha, are giving way to dry weather just ahead of the crop’s critical reproduction and grain-fill growing period, raising the prospect of another La Niña-diminished harvest in June and July. No significant rainfall is forecast for Brazil’s already <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/4dg7Xwldo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">parched central and southern states</a> for the remainder of the rainy season, which ends in early May.&nbsp;Mato Grosso state, which produces almost half of Brazil’s safrinha crop, has received below normal precipitation for the past two weeks, and <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/7qb7rWGRX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">limited rain is in the forecast</a>. Last year, a La Niña-shortened rainy season and an unrelenting drought stressed Brazil’s pollinating corn crop, resulting in a 15% decline in the country’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/oq1ZEP1RW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">total corn production</a>.&nbsp;Argentina’s corn yields are also likely to come in lower than last year, according to Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0XbrqK" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Argentina Corn Yield Forecast Model</a>.<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kqzKDDXRW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Corn stocks</a> in the US, the largest corn exporter, are the second tightest in eight years. Amid continued uncertainty surrounding exports from Ukraine, the No. 3 corn exporter, and crop prospects in North and South America, <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/gro-predicts-us-corn-stocks-will-drop-sharply-in-2022-23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro predicts</a> an even tighter corn balance sheet for 2022/23.&nbsp;-Related Insights<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/gro-predicts-us-corn-stocks-will-drop-sharply-in-2022-23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Predicts US Corn Stocks Will Drop Sharply in 2022/23</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/whitepaper-russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">High Fertilizer Prices Drive US Farmers to Plant More Soy Than Corn</a> &nbsp;

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Corn Prices Rise as Prospects Weaken for Brazil, US Crops

Mounting troubles for the US winter wheat and spring wheat crops are undercutting hopes that the US will be able to significantly ease tightness in global wheat supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine war.&nbsp;US farmers are expected to reduce spring wheat planted acreage in the upcoming season, as <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9Q3Ybwqm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">fertilizer prices</a> soar. And <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp3Kwq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dry conditions</a> in the main spring wheat growing states of the northern Plains threaten to depress yields. In 2021, drought pushed production of the main variety, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/o9vPn7wqb" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hard red spring wheat</a>, down 44% year over year to its lowest level in more than 30 years.&nbsp;Concerns about US <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/Pd2E5ZW9A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">spring wheat</a> come on top of poor prospects for the winter wheat crop, which has just emerged from dormancy amid drought conditions in the southern Plains. Good-to-excellent crop conditions for US winter wheat, at 30%, is the lowest start to the spring season in more than two decades.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/p9BvMej9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a> is currently pointing to a double-digit-percentage drop in production from last year. Some 40% of total US wheat production comes from hard red winter wheat, and about one-third is from spring wheat.&nbsp;<figure class="image image_resized" style="width:100%;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1649188277/new-website/Gro_Drought_Index_for_US_Spring_Wheat_Regions_09f1122cc2.png"><figcaption>Drought in the US northern Plains poses risks for the upcoming spring wheat crop. The red line is the Gro Drought Index reading for 2022, and the blue line is 2021, in this image from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator, which can show growing conditions weighted by specific crops.&nbsp;</figcaption></figure><a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/ZRl7yOZqB" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Forecasts for the northern Plains</a> — including North Dakota, which accounts for roughly half of US spring wheat production — call for continued dry conditions over the next couple of weeks.&nbsp;&nbsp;Similar dry conditions also raise concerns about spring wheat production in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/a9M3xOrqM" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Canada</a>, the world’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3rlndD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">biggest producer</a> of spring wheat in most years. When the growing season gets underway, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd33Ejrdo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Canada Spring Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a> provides daily yield forecasts at the district level across Canada's largest wheat-producing provinces.Both hard red spring wheat and hard red winter wheat are high in protein and are used for breads and other baked goods. Other varieties known as soft wheats contain less protein and are generally used for cookies and pastries.&nbsp;&nbsp;-Related Insights<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">High Fertilizer Prices Drive US Farmers to Plant More Soy Than Corn</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/whitepaper-russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/us-winter-wheat-production-won-t-ease-tight-global-supplies" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies</a> &nbsp;

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Setbacks for US Wheat Crops Signal Lower Production

US corn stocks, already the second lowest in eight years, will shrink further in 2022/23. That will fuel further price increases in a broad range of food products, from soda pop to chicken wings.&nbsp;US farmers intend to plant 4 million fewer acres of corn this year, for a total of 89.6 million acres, because of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9Q3Ybwqm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soaring fertilizer</a> costs. The low planting intentions number, which could change before seeds actually go in the ground, would mean a smaller corn harvest this year even if growing conditions are ideal. The acreage report marks only the second time in history that US farmers have <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp2D4q3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">planted more soybeans than corn</a>.In addition, US corn exports are increasing due to stalled shipments from war-ravaged Ukraine and declines in South American production. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/DdxB10BR2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US corn total sales commitments</a> are currently the second highest in history, and new crop sales also remain strong. The US is the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdo6Q3b9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">No. 1 exporter of corn</a> worldwide.&nbsp;December <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d5z2LLq0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">corn futures prices</a> are posting new contract highs. US corn ending stocks for the current year are forecast at 36.6 million tonnes. Gro predicts 2022/23 corn ending stocks will decline by a double-digit percentage.&nbsp;&nbsp;The impact of higher corn prices is likely to be broad based given corn’s versatility. Corn touches a large number of products, from cornmeal and corn flour to high fructose corn syrup. Further, corn is the primary feed grain in the U.S. feeding chicken, hogs and cattle, likely prompting higher prices across the protein supply chain as well as for dairy products.Although early growing conditions for Brazil’s current “safrinha” corn crop have been mostly favorable, one-third of this second corn crop is being planted in a region that suffered dry conditions earlier this year. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pdo6bOy9L" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Brazil Corn Yield Forecast Model</a> is currently projecting a sizable jump in yield, following last year’s drought-induced crop, but conditions should be monitored.&nbsp;In neighboring Argentina, corn yields have stabilized from early season dryness, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0XbrqK" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Yield Forecast Model</a>. Still, yields are expected to come in below last year’s levels.&nbsp;Brazil’s first corn crop, planted in September and harvested in February, suffered severe yield losses due to drought. While the first crop corn is typically used domestically, Brazil’s second crop, which is harvested starting in June, is heavily exported.&nbsp;As a result, Brazil’s corn stocks are likely to remain tight at least through June, putting the US in a good position to gain additional export sales.&nbsp;-Related Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">High Fertilizer Prices Drive US Farmers to Plant More Soy Than Corn</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/whitepaper-russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/usda-cuts-soy-corn-ending-stocks-but-gro-predicts-deeper-reductions-are-needed" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">USDA Cuts Soy, Corn Ending Stocks, but Gro Predicts Deeper Reductions Are Needed</a> &nbsp;

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Gro Predicts US Corn Stocks Will Drop Sharply in 2022/23

In an environment of very high fertilizer prices, a USDA survey shows <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp2D4q3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US farmers intend to plant more soybeans than corn</a> in 2022. This marks only the second time in USDA record-keeping history that soybean acreage has topped corn, and increases pressure on already tight <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRnmJaBqY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US corn inventories</a>.&nbsp;The Prospective Plantings report, one of the agency’s most highly anticipated reports of the year, provides a first official look at 2022 acreage. US farmers intend to plant 91 million acres of soybeans, a 3.8 million-acre increase from last year, and 89.5 million acres of corn, down 3.9 million acres.&nbsp;The top producing “I” states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all saw a switch to more soybean acres year over year.&nbsp;Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is adding fuel to already soaring fertilizer prices at a time when planting of major crops critical to global supplies is getting underway in the Northern Hemisphere. Fertilizer prices had already <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/p9BvWnY9M" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more than doubled</a> over the past 18 months, hitting US farmers with sharply higher <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/k9Q3Ybwqm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">input costs</a> as they prepare for the 2022 growing season.&nbsp;Soybeans require a fraction of the fertilizer needed by corn. That difference has driven farmers to plan for greater soybean area in 2022 than <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-planting-intentions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Planting Intentions Model</a> forecast in early March.But low corn acres will place a heavy strain on US supplies in 2022/23. US corn stocks are at their second-lowest level in six years. And Black Sea export disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war have squeezed global grain supplies and driven prices higher.&nbsp;Corn growing areas in the US Plains and upper Midwest are facing <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6RwGP4BRW" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">persistent drought</a>, which reduces the chances of attaining trendline yields in 2022. Gro users can monitor yield outlooks down to the county level with <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-yield-model" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Corn Yield Forecast Model</a> once the growing season gets underway.<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRnmJ0PqY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-soybean-yield-forecast-model" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a> also offer in-season insights into those crops.&nbsp;Wheat prices have especially moved higher following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, and US farmers intend to plant the highest number of wheat acres since 2018. However, growers will be challenged to hang onto harvested wheat acres given the continuing drought in the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp3Kwq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US Plains</a>.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRL7prVqp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Winter wheat prices</a> are trading near their highest levels in 14 years, and spring wheat is close to a 10-year high. Globally, <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2daEmODdn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat stocks</a> of major exporting countries are at their lowest level in eight years.&nbsp;&nbsp;US barley acres also increased, by 11%, at a time when Black Sea exports of the grain are stalled.&nbsp;-Related Insights<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/whitepaper-russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/usda-cuts-soy-corn-ending-stocks-but-gro-predicts-deeper-reductions-are-needed" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">USDA Cuts Soy, Corn Ending Stocks, but Gro Predicts Deeper Reductions Are Needed</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/blog/supporting-global-food-security-amid-russia-ukraine-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Supporting Global Food Security Amid Russia-Ukraine War</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/russia-ukraine-crisis-ignites-fertilizer-prices-at-critical-time-for-world-crops" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Ignites Fertilizer Prices at Critical Time for World Crops</a> &nbsp;

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