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Gro Intelligence works with seed, fertilizer, and corporate agribusiness companies to forecast product demand from a regional or global perspective.

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Forecast US state and regional planting intentions to forecast product demand and sales.

Estimate how many US corn and soybean acres will be prevented from being planted to assess impact on earnings.

Forecast crop production for regions around the world by monitoring Gro's daily updating yield estimates. 

 Gain insights into the economics behind producers’ planting decisions.

Forecast product demand and sales both regionally and globally

Monitor drought in key regions for early warning signs of how drought may impact crop production, supplies, prices, and farmer income.

View details about various crops according to growth, climate, weather, and energy conditions.

Assess the impact of fall armyworms on yield.

Predict shifts in commodity prices based on changing demand for pork and the consequent demand for high-protein feed.

Incorporate long-term climate and pest impact into R&D and sales strategies

Features designed to integrate into your workflow.

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After three consecutive years, La Niña’s forecasted departure in coming weeks could have profound effects on food production in some of the world’s major breadbasket regions.&nbsp;An end to the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/adGQxzxRZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global climate event</a> could bring relief to some drought-stricken corn and soybean growing regions in South America and to the winter wheat belt of the US Great Plains, according to a Gro analysis of past La Niña and El Niño transitions. However, it could also close out successive years of bumper harvests of palm oil in Indonesia and wheat in Australia.&nbsp;The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts an 82% chance that La Niña will exit between March and May, transitioning climate conditions to an “ENSO neutral” state.&nbsp;After that, the CPC currently forecasts a 51% chance that El Niño conditions will prevail beginning in the August-October period, a development that could further impact global food production. El Niño and La Niña trends are just one factor influencing local climate conditions and don’t ensure specific weather patterns.&nbsp;For some crops currently in the ground, La Niña’s departure will come too late. Argentina’s current corn and soybean crops have endured the worst drought in 20 years, stunting yields, as Gro wrote about<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/argentina-headed-for-deep-soybean-decline-brazil-a-record-crop-gro-predicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> here</a>. And Gro Drought Index readings for the US winter wheat crop are close to a two-decade high, as shown in this display from <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Winter%20Wheat%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture</a>. US winter wheat crop yields have <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRnoeY59Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">declined </a>for four straight years.However, Brazil’s second corn crop, which accounts for some 70% of Brazil’s total corn production, could get a boost from La Niña’s exit. The second crop, known as safrinha, is currently being planted in areas that have benefited from ample rainfall of late, and a neutral ENSO signal could reduce the chance of drought in the coming months.Successive years of La Niña brought dry conditions for Brazil’s soybean crop, the biggest in the world. Drought levels in 2020, 2021, and 2022 were among the highest in the past 20 years, as shown by the <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1029,Brazil$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Soybeans%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Drought Index</a> weighted for Brazil’s soybean growing areas using Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture. That depressed Brazil’s soybean yields, mainly in the country’s south, and nationwide yields fell by double-digits in the 2022/23 crop year.&nbsp;A possible El Niño later this year could change Brazil’s precipitation patterns and affect soybean yields. The 2009 El Niño event brought normal-to-above-normal rainfall and Brazil soybean yields rose. But the 2015 El Niño resulted in heavy rain in the country’s southeast and dry conditions elsewhere, which depressed soybean yields for the 2016/17 season.&nbsp;La Niña’s passing could help US winter wheat crops during the 2023/24 year. Mostly ENSO neutral conditions in 2018 and 2019 brought above-normal precipitation to at least parts of the Great Plains. And 2015’s El Niño resulted in soil moisture levels that were normal or above normal, as shown in this Gro Climate Risk Navigator <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1215,United%20States$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Winter%20Wheat%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">display</a>.&nbsp;On the other hand, La Niña’s departure could result in lower crop yields in other parts of the world, including Indonesia and Malaysia, the top two palm oil producers. If drier conditions emerge under ENSO neutral or El Niño conditions, palm oil output would be at risk in 2024 after benefiting from multiple years of ample rainfall stemming from La Niña, as Gro wrote about<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-s-return-points-to-higher-palm-oil-production-in-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> here</a>.&nbsp;Indonesia and Malaysia saw palm oil yields fall sharply in 2015/16 in the wake of the 2015 El Niño, as shown in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/K9pxe5A9E" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display</a>. Even mostly ENSO neutral conditions in 2019 brought drought to the two countries’ palm growing regions.&nbsp;Australia’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/eRJDzMadV" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat crop</a> also has benefited from La Niña-induced rainfall in recent years, with production rising each year since 2020/21. Although Australia should harvest another bumper crop this year, excessive rainfall is expected to reduce grain quality and decrease how much milling wheat is available versus animal feed grain, as Gro wrote about <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/heavy-rains-put-australia-s-wheat-crop-at-risk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.&nbsp;Past episodes of El Niño brought drier conditions to Australia’s wheat fields, but the impact on crops was mixed. Wheat yields fell following 2009’s El Niño but were little changed in the wake of the 2015 event.

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La Niña’s Departure Seen Having Major Impacts on Global Food Production

Russia has extended its export quotas for select fertilizers — and reduced the levels of allowed shipments — in an ongoing initiative to secure supplies for its domestic market as farmers prepare for the upcoming crop cycle.The quota policy renewal, announced this week, is effective from January through May and totals nearly 11.8 million tonnes, which will be split among exporters. Certain nitrogen exports will be capped at a combined 5.87 million tonnes, with complex nitrogen fertilizer products limited to 4.9 million tonnes.&nbsp;The latest quota limits on nitrogen are tighter than the parameters issued in May 2022, which expire at the end of December. The quotas apply to shipments outside the Eurasian Economic Union — which comprises Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia.Fertilizer futures and physical prices had a muted response this week to Russia’s updated export policy, with key futures contracts at the US Gulf coast and in Egypt continuing to fall, as shown in this <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/ZRlBbKJdB" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro display</a>. Global urea demand has retreated in the last couple of months and prices have been under pressure and continue to fall heading into the new year.Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of fertilizers, with large volumes typically shipped to the US and Brazil.&nbsp;US imports of Russian urea between January and October 2022 fell by 42% from a year earlier, but have only dropped below historical levels in recent months. The US hasn’t placed sanctions on Russian nitrogen imports, but some consumers have opted for other origins following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.&nbsp;View <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK1W8mRK" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">this Gro display </a>which shows month-by-month imports of Russian fertilizers by the US and Brazil, as well as Russian production and export data.For Brazil, imports from Russia of a range of fertilizer products have reached record levels in many months beginning in mid-2021.Russia’s move adds to the challenge of fertilizer affordability facing farmers worldwide. China also has restricted exports of fertilizers, and potash exports from Belarus, a major supplier, are limited due to US sanctions. Fertilizer supply availability, while adequate in North America and Europe, will be especially squeezed in countries where currency depreciation has fueled high inflation, including in Latin America and Africa.&nbsp;Global fertilizer prices, while down from their mid-2022 peaks, will remain historically elevated in 2023 and beyond, bloating farm production costs. In the US, fertilizer and other input expenses are projected to account for 49% of total operating costs for corn farmers in 2023, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/us-crop-insights/crop-budgets?crop=Corn&amp;parentRegion=United+States&amp;region=United+States&amp;budget=Corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s US Farmer Profitability &amp; Crop Budgets app</a>. That’s on a par with 2022, but sharply above the average since 2015 of about 40%.&nbsp;Gro users can view the implications of various fertilizer supply restrictions stemming from protectionist policies and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war at <a href="https://community.gro-intelligence.com/global-fertilizer-impact-monitor/https:/community.gro-intelligence.com/food-security-tracker-africa" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Global Fertilizer Impact Monitor</a>, which is freely available.&nbsp;Gro launched the monitor to help quantify the potential impact on global production of major staple crops due to reduced nitrogen fertilizer applications under different scenarios. Gro built the Monitor with support from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and in partnership with the International Fertilizer Association and CRU Group.&nbsp;&nbsp;

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Russia Extends and Tightens Fertilizer Export Quotas Through May 2023

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7 Major Themes for Agriculture in the Year Ahead: Gro’s 2023 Watchlist

At the start of 2022, Gro put together a <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/gro-s-2022-watchlist-9-major-themes-for-agriculture-in-the-year-ahead">Watchlist</a> with our predictions for nine major themes for agriculture in the year just ending.&nbsp;Today, Gro is looking back at our predictions for 2022 to see what we got right and where we missed the mark during a tumultuous year that saw challenges ranging from the Russia-Ukraine war to ongoing food price inflation to extreme weather disruptions.&nbsp;&nbsp;Tomorrow, December 21, 2022, we will publish our Watchlist for 2023, with forecasts for food price inflation, Chinese import demand, grain and oilseed inventories, fertilizer prices, and more in the year ahead.Gro uses the data and our models in the platform to assess the principal factors that will determine the direction of agricultural markets and inventories and project what 2023 holds in store.&nbsp;What We Got Right&nbsp;Food Inflation Will Continue ✓What we predicted: Gro’s US Food Price Index, currently up 24% year over year, is at its highest level since the COVID-linked spike of mid-2020, underscoring the risk that food price inflation will be an ongoing issue.What we’re seeing: The world is entering a third year of high food price inflation, and issues - from drought to war - will likely keep prices elevated. Even though commodity prices have retreated from their peaks, poor growing conditions, high fertilizer prices, and a strong US dollar might mean historically high prices for at least another growing season.Wheat Supplies Will Remain Tight ✓What we predicted: Global demand for wheat is expected to remain robust in 2022.What we’re seeing: Record heat waves in Europe and India, along with droughts in Argentina, significantly curtailed global wheat production. North America’s wheat crop recovered in 2022, and Australia's production has remained strong. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the supply disruption that it unleashed, will impact wheat supply for some time.&nbsp;La Niña to Threaten South American Soy and Corn Crops ✓What we predicted: The La Niña global weather pattern is back for a second year, and&nbsp; this could have big ramifications for 2022 crops around the world. In South America, drier than normal weather could once again reduce harvests of soybeans and corn.&nbsp;What we’re seeing: La Niña did in fact result in adverse/dry weather in South America. Drought conditions, according to Gro’s GDI, were high in both Brazil and Argentina during the first half of the year, and both countries’ soybean crops suffered. In Brazil, production dropped significantly from the year before (-12.5MMT or -9%, according to USDA), coming in well below expectations. Argentina’s soybean crop also shrunk compared with the previous year (-2.0MMT), leading to the lowest production in the four years.China’s Import Growth Will Slow&nbsp;✓ What we predicted: China fueled much of the increased demand for world food supplies in recent years. Now, with the country’s hog population fully recovered from the 2018 African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak, China will have lower pork import needs. However, China will still need to import large quantities of feed grains for its maturing hog herd and as its hog industry becomes more industrialized, although the growth pace for feed grain imports will slow.&nbsp;What we’re seeing: From Jan, 2022 to Oct, 2022, China imported 1.3 million tonnes of pork, a decrease of 57% year on year.&nbsp; Gro predicted that China’s need for grain imports will remain robust, and in 2021/22, China imported 56 million tonnes - the second highest in record after 2020/2021, a year when China’s grain imports reached 64 million tonnes. We also predicted that China’s domestic grain prices will remain high in our 2022 report, and corn and wheat prices reached historical highs this year. Lastly, for China we predicted that year-over-year food-grade wheat import volumes would surpass 2021’s levels, and this also came to pass. Since Oct 2021, wheat prices have traded higher than corn, in part because it is more economical to import food-grade wheat than it is to import feed grade.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;Steep Coffee and Sugar Prices Will Persist ✓What we predicted: Soft commodities saw some of the largest price increases in 2021, and coffee was one of the biggest gainers, rising 63% during the year. Heading into 2022, we predicted that a cup of joe would get more expensive as grocers and coffee-heavy restaurant concepts pass on higher coffee prices.What we’re seeing: Soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, and sugar traded quite high for much of 2022, especially in the first half of the year, and certain soft commodity prices may stay elevated into 2023.&nbsp;In sugar, a <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRkB58rqQ">13% year-over-year drop in global ending stocks of sugar is forecast for 2023. </a>Since mid-September, sugar prices have been reflecting the expectation of tight supplies.&nbsp;For coffee, favorable coffee growing conditions in Brazil at the beginning of this year’s rainy season helped take the edge off prices, and coffee prices started to return to their historical average of around $1.60/lbs in August.&nbsp;During the 2023/24 marketing year, Brazilian coffee production is expected to decrease as the country’s crop heads into an off-year cycle. But, as Brazil’s robusta coffee production has nearly doubled in the last five marketing years, total 2023/24 coffee output for Brazil may come in higher than usual for an off-year cycle.&nbsp;Biofuel Growth Will Continue Apace ✓What we predicted: The “food vs. fuel debate” for vegetable oils will intensify in 2022 as both production and demand for biofuels increases, especially in the US.What we’re seeing: This was mixed. The increased demand for global vegetable oil use for biofuels did not materialize, mainly due to a contraction in worldwide palm oil industrial use. However, production and demand for biofuels did increase in the US, where production capacity for renewable diesel doubled to over 2 billion gallons. Also, in the US, soybean oil use for biofuels reached a record high, increasing by 16% from the previous year.What Surprised UsVegetable Oil Demand Growth to Outpace Production Gains&nbsp;What we predicted: Vegetable and edible oils will continue to be key to food inflation in 2022, after a tumultuous 2021 that saw some of the highest prices in 10 years. Demand is expected to continue to grow due to the need for vegetable oils in both food and fuel.What we’re seeing: Vegetable oil prices experienced incredible volatility this past year due changing demand pull and supply constraints, including the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine, an event that took a large chunk of sunflower oil supply out of the market.The first half of this year saw record high prices across the vegetable oil space. This curbed previously projected net increases in both food and fuel demand globally, but pockets of demand remained strong. For example, soybean oil consumption was pushed higher as the US stepped up efforts to build out its renewable diesel capacity.In palm oil, year-to-date trade flow numbers out of Malaysia and Indonesia increased by only 0.5%, but palm oil demand looks set to rebound sharply as China loosens its COVID restrictions.Relief Did Not Come for Protein Prices&nbsp;What we predicted: Protein prices have been some of the biggest contributors to rising food prices, but Gro expects some relief in coming months. US beef prices rose 18% in 2021, while poultry prices surged 36%.What we’re seeing: Higher-than-expected corn and soybean meal prices punished chicken and pork buyers in 2022, and bird flu and hog herd contractions may continue into 2023. The US broiler flock is expanding at a moderate pace, but price support from cattle and hog’s shrinking herds will limit discounts for chicken. Additionally, egg buyers’ high input costs have been accompanied by a still-uncontrolled bird-flu outbreak that has disproportionately impacted egg-laying chickens.&nbsp;&nbsp;US Farmers Didn’t Plant More Acres&nbsp;What we predicted: The outlook for global crop balances by the end of 2022 will depend on the number of acres US producers dedicate to each crop this spring.&nbsp;What we’re seeing: Combined corn, wheat, and soybean planted area was down from 2021’s levels, despite higher commodity prices, because sharply higher fertilizer prices discouraged farmers from planting corn. A significant increase in area prevented from planting also factored into 2022’s year-over-year decline.&nbsp; Reach out to us at <a href="mailto:salesteam@gro-intelligence.com">sales@gro-intelligence.com</a> to speak with a member of our team or to get a demonstration of our platform.&nbsp;

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Gro’s Predictions for 2022 - How Did We Do?

Two consecutive La Niña years have depressed world food supplies and driven commodity prices higher. Now, the US Climate Prediction Center is warning that the disruptive global weather event is likely to return for a third year, a rare occurrence that has happened only twice in the past 70 years.&nbsp;La Niña conditions for a third year in a row could have far-reaching effects on global agriculture by triggering large shifts in weather. La Niña tends to create drought and dry conditions in many parts of the world, including Brazil, Argentina, and the US, while bringing additional precipitation to other areas, such as Australia.&nbsp;Current dry conditions in Argentina’s northern provinces are reducing acreage planted to wheat. A continuation of La Niña could hinder the crop’s yield development in the key months of September and October. Argentina is the biggest South American producer and exporter of wheat and accounts for about 8% of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/kR0gvXoqz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global wheat exports</a>. La Niña previously caused substantial soybean losses in Argentina during the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons.Brazil corn and soybeans also could suffer from a return of La Niña in late 2022 and early 2023. A <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/7qb7DAlRX" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro analysis</a> shows that La Niña correlates strongly with increased levels of drought and reduced corn yields in Brazil, the world’s No. 2 corn exporter.&nbsp;This past year, Brazil’s southern states experienced “severe” levels of drought, as shown by the Gro Drought Index, weighted for soybean acres using <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/10417,Mato%20Grosso%20do%20Sul:10424,Rio%20Grande%20do%20Sul:10406,Paran%C3%A1$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Soybeans%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:16,South%20America:1029,Brazil:10417,Mato%20Grosso%20do%20Sul" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>. Soybean yields dropped by double digits year over year, according to <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/6qAxMrgd4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model</a>.&nbsp;US hard red winter wheat (HRW), currently being harvested, also suffered from dry conditions brought on by La Niña. Amid one of the worst <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp3Kwq3" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">droughts</a> since 2014, farmers in Kansas and Texas will abandon a substantial portion of their HRW wheat crops, <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/drought-ravaged-southern-plains-wheat-abandoned-acres-to-soar" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro data shows</a>. And Gro’s <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/gRnmJ0PqY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">yield forecast model</a> is pointing to a double-digit decline in HRW yields.&nbsp;&nbsp;Australia, on the other hand, is poised for a third year of strong <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/WdK0BjXqK" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat </a>production in 2022 as good weather boosts planting across its grain belt. While it is too early to estimate the size of the 2022/23 crop, which will be harvested at the end of the year, conditions so far are superior to last year, as shown by <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1013,Australia$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:13,Oceania:1013,Australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>, weighted for Australian wheat acres.&nbsp;Australia produced a record 36 million tonnes of wheat in 2021/22 and was the world’s third-largest <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/NdVMGml9v" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wheat exporter</a>, shipping largely to China, Indonesia, and other Asian buyers.New crop prospects can be monitored using Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dX12DBq5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Australia Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a>, which will provide daily updates of yield estimates once the crop emerges from dormancy in August.&nbsp;The US Climate Prediction Center’s latest forecast shows that La Niña conditions are likely to return for a third-consecutive Northern Hemisphere winter in 2023. The CPC said most climate models predict a weakening of La Niña conditions by late summer, followed by a 58%-59% chance of La Niña strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter. The last time La Nina was in place for three years in a row was from 1998 to 2001.&nbsp;La Niña conditions are currently in place, according to the CPC’s <a href="https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oceanic Niño Index</a>, which is calculated based on ocean temperatures in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean. A separate index called the <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/8kR074Mqz" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Multivariate ENSO Index</a>, which is available on Gro's web portal, also indicates La Niña is in effect — negative values indicate La Niña conditions while positive values point to El Niño conditions. The Multivariate ENSO Index includes additional variables such as sea level pressure.-Related Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/global-wheat-supplies-face-new-threats-as-drought-levels-rise-gro-s-model-shows" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Global Wheat Supplies Face New Threats as Drought Levels Rise, Gro’s Model Shows</a><a href="https://info.gro-intelligence.com/russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">(Whitepaper) Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-is-back-what-that-means-for-north-and-south-american-crops" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña Is Back—What That Means for North and South American Crops</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-brings-drought-to-east-africas-key-grain-producing-countries" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña Brings Drought to East Africa’s Key Grain Producing Countries</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-nina-brings-dryness-to-argentine-wheat-cutting-production-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña Brings Dryness to Argentine Wheat, Cutting Production Outlook</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/la-ninas-mixed-blessing-for-australia-a-90-jump-in-wheat-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">La Niña's Mixed Blessing: For Australia, a 90% Jump in Wheat Production</a>&nbsp; &nbsp;

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La Niña Is Forecast to Impact Global Agriculture for a Third Year in a Row

Many corn farmers in the US northern Plains are being forced to decide whether to forgo planting a significant portion of their crop because of <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/xdmBPWJq7" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">saturated soils</a>.&nbsp;Corn farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota are well behind on planting due to heavy snow, followed by rain in April and now spring flooding. <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3d57zy4R0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Prevent Plant Forecast Model for corn</a> predicts these states are vulnerable to getting substantially fewer acres planted than originally intended. Farmers generally carry insurance for acreage that is prevented from being planted.&nbsp;This year’s overly wet conditions contrast with 2021, when the region instead suffered drought that depressed corn yields. In North Dakota, for example, corn yields last year slumped 24% from a year earlier. <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/13085,North%20Dakota$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22NASS%20Corn%20(US%20only)%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1215,United%20States:13085,North%20Dakota" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator</a>, weighted to focus on North Dakota’s corn growing areas, highlights the sharp differences in Gro Drought Index readings and soil moisture levels between this year and last.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1652821632/new-website/Daily_Soil_Moisture_for_North_Dakota_Corn_Growing_Areas_a1ee88027c.png"><figcaption>Sodden soils this year (blue line) contrast with excessive dryness in 2021 (red line), as shown by this chart from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator, weighted for corn-growing areas in North Dakota. This year’s wet conditions could reduce acres planted to corn.</figcaption></figure>Prevent-plant estimates are important because they have a direct effect on final production numbers. Prevent plant also can cause a shift of acreage away from corn and into soybeans, which are planted later.&nbsp;Gro’s Prevent Plant models, for both <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-corn-prevent-plant" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US corn</a> and <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/models/us-soy-prevent-plant" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">soybeans</a>, update daily and forecast which areas of the US Midwest are likely to have planting problems because of overly wet soil. The machine learning-based models combine data on soil moisture, precipitation, soil surveys, and other variables, including USDA crop-planting progress reports, to estimate the number of acres prevented from being planted at the county and national levels well in advance of the USDA’s initial prevent-plant report in mid-August.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp2D4q3">US corn acreage</a> was already slated to drop by 4% this year, the lowest level since 2019, as farmers turn to <a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">less fertilizer-intensive crops</a> such as soybeans. Further declines in corn production will tighten the US corn balance sheet at a time when every bushel counts because of squeezed global supplies and higher prices brought on by the Russia-Ukraine war.Only <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3LvndD" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">49% of the US corn crop</a> was planted as of May 15. That’s the slowest pace since the much wetter year of 2019 when only 30% of the crop was planted at this time. While US planting progress jumped in the past week, pockets of heavy delays are still present.&nbsp;<a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwBA9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">North Dakota corn planting</a> remains stalled at 4% compared with a 5-year average of 41%, as eastern counties in the state show some of the highest ever soil moisture readings for this time of year. In South Dakota, 31% of the corn crop is planted versus a 54% average, and in Minnesota the pace is 35% versus an average of 72%.&nbsp;The last year of significant prevent-plant corn acreage was 2019, when 8.5 million acres, or nearly 10% of the planned corn crop, wasn’t planted because of overly wet conditions.-Related Insights&nbsp;<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/corn-prices-rise-as-prospects-weaken-for-brazil-us-crops" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Corn Prices Rise as Prospects Weaken for Brazil, US Crops</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/epa-plan-for-higher-ethanol-blends-will-boost-us-corn-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">EPA Plan for Higher Ethanol Blends Will Boost US Corn Demand</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/gro-predicts-us-corn-stocks-will-drop-sharply-in-2022-23" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gro Predicts US Corn Stocks Will Drop Sharply in 2022/23</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/high-fertilizer-prices-drive-us-farmers-to-plant-more-soy-than-corn" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">High Fertilizer Prices Drive US Farmers to Plant More Soy Than Corn</a> &nbsp;

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US Corn Crop at Risk of Substantial Prevent-Plant Acreage, Gro’s Model Predicts

Tight global wheat supplies could get a needed boost as Canadian farmers are expected to sharply increase acreage for spring planting. A robust crop in Canada, the world’s biggest producer of spring wheat, would help alleviate worldwide shortages sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;Acreage for the spring wheat crop, which makes up the bulk of Canada’s total wheat production, is forecast to increase by 6.7% year over year to 7.1 million hectares, Statistics Canada projects. The expansion will lift Canada’s total wheat area to its <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwxJ9b">highest level</a> in nine years.&nbsp;Severe drought last year caused Canadian <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/rdrBYyrdZ">spring wheat production</a> to plunge 38%, which helped lead to today’s tightness in global wheat supplies. Currently, Gro’s Drought Index weighted for wheat-growing regions in Canada shows conditions are <a href="https://hub.gro-intelligence.com/plot-region/agriculture/1037,Canada$%7B%22checked%22%3A%5B%22Wheat%22%5D%2C%22method%22%3A%22sum%22%7D_0?0,World:15,North%20America:1037,Canada">significantly less dry</a> than last year in Canada’s wheat-growing areas, although soil moisture levels are about on par with last year.<figure class="image"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/gro-intelligence/image/upload/v1651009640/new-website/Gro_Drought_Index_for_Canadas_Wheat_Growing_Areas_cd85b07650.png"><figcaption>Intense drought in Canada’s wheat-growing regions last year, shown by the green line, dragged down wheat production. Current conditions, blue line, are considerably less dry, according to Gro’s Drought Index.</figcaption></figure>Planting for the spring crop will get underway in <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9N73Z7db">May,</a> and Gro users can monitor its progress using Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/pd33Ejrdo">Canada Spring Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a>, which updates daily.&nbsp;Soaring <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/wRL7prVqp">wheat prices</a> worldwide are likely behind the increased wheat acreage, which is edging out <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/V9NBwxJ9b">other crops</a> such as barley and dry peas. Canola planted area also is expected to decline, despite high oilseed prices, as farmers favor cereal crops. Oat acres are projected to increase 18%, and corn, lentils, and soybean acreage also will expand.&nbsp;In the US, spring wheat planting is getting off to a <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/3dW3AKWdD">slow start</a> as unseasonal storms blanket the northern Plains with snow. However, the snowfall has helped alleviate the region’s dry conditions. Similar to Canada, last year’s US spring wheat production slumped 44% because of drought.&nbsp;The US winter wheat crop has emerged from dormancy amid <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/LRyp3Kwq3">dry conditions</a> in the southern Plains. Crop conditions, measured by <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/8kR0GrVqz">good-excellent winter wheat ratings</a>, are the worst for this time of the season in 26 years, and Gro’s machine-learning <a href="https://app.gro-intelligence.com/displays/2pd4gOA9j">US Hard Red Winter Wheat Yield Forecast Model</a> continues to sink due to hot and dry conditions.-Related Insights<a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/setbacks-for-us-wheat-crops-signal-lower-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Setbacks for US Wheat Crops Signal Lower Production</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/whitepaper-russia-ukraine-crisis-driving-global-food-shocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia-Ukraine Crisis Driving Global Food Shocks</a><a href="https://gro-intelligence.com/insights/russia-enacts-partial-ban-on-grain-exports-in-another-hit-to-global-wheat-supplies" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Russia Enacts Partial Ban on Grain Exports in Another Hit to Global Wheat Supplies</a> &nbsp;

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