The India Retail Price Volatility Indices were created to supplement Gro’s India Food Price Inflation Index. The indices calculate the annualized volatility of 17 national price series, which aggregate hundreds of local prices from India’s Department of Agriculture and Cooperation. Gro’s Volatility Indices help track an item's realized volatility over time and permit comparisons between items.
Customers Use the Model to:
- Track food price volatility in India in near real time
- Analyze which goods are driving overall food price volatility on a month-to-month basis
- Use realized volatility to forecast future price volatility for key commodities
- Compare relative price volatility for key food commodities, including very volatile items like onions
Why It Matters
India is an increasingly important player in global agricultural markets. Understanding food inflation is especially important because food accounts for a large share of total household expenditures. Gro developed the India Food Price Inflation Index in response to the 2021 farmer protests about the government’s planned reforms to agricultural policy, in order to measure food inflation on a real-time basis. Quantifying the volatility of the index components provides a real-time measure of price volatility as experienced by Indian consumers. Historical and future retail price volatility shows some of the factors driving agricultural policy in India, as well as policy impact over time.
- Webinar: A Quantitative Look at Farmer Protests in India
- India Food Price Inflation Index and Retail Price Volatility Indices
- Gro's India Wheat Yield Model & Balance Sheet
- India's Onion Production & Prices
- Overview of Major Crops Produced in India
- India Cropland - Irrigated & Non-Irrigated
This index was developed as part of a March 2021 Gro webinar on farmer protests in India.