Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production

29 March 2021

Global supplies of spring wheat could be severely curtailed this year as acreage is forecasted to fall in all three major producing countries. 

Spring wheat is predominantly grown in Canada, Russia, and the United States. Production from these countries has ranged between 55-63 million tonnes annually over the last 5 years. 

In Canada, with most alternatives offering better returns and dry conditions causing concern, as shown by the Gro Drought Index, spring wheat area is forecasted to decline. If drought conditions don't ease, the drop in production will be further affected. Canadian wheat production can be monitored through Gro's Canada Spring Wheat Yield Forecast Model.

Russia produces around 23 million tonnes of spring wheat per year. The Russian government announced export controls on wheat in December, as part of a package of measures to control domestic food inflation. Acreage is likely to decline in Russia if growers are uncertain about finding a market for their wheat. Gro’s webinar “Will Trade Restrictions and Crop Prospects Curtail Wheat Supplies,” available on Gro’s website under the Insights tab, explores this possibility in greater detail.

In the US, spring wheat is most commonly grown in North Dakota. It is also grown in Montana, South Dakota and Minnesota. Gro’s Planting Intentions model forecasts a decline in spring wheat acreage versus last year due to the strength of corn and soybean prices.  

Combining the situation in Russia and Canada with a tightening environment in the US sets up a global spring wheat market worth keeping a close eye on. Tight wheat supplies are set to accelerate global food inflation even further. 

This insight was powered by the Gro platform, which enables better and faster decisions about factors affecting the entire global agricultural ecosystem. Gro organizes over 40,000 datasets from sources around the world into a unified ontology, which allows users to derive valuable insights such as this one. You can explore the data available on Gro with a free account, or please get in touch if you would like to learn more about a specific crop, region, or business issue.

 

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